New data on metro area employment and unemployment came out this morning, covering February 2014.  Although unemployment data included revised statistics for February 2013, the fully revised series were still not available (nor were the revised figures for smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates).  The full series of revised data are scheduled to be released April 18.

In the meantime, the new unemployment data show a similar pattern to the figures recently released for January.  Specifically, unemployment rates for February 2013 were revised upward for all of the state’s metro areas, with the revisions ranging from +0.2% to +0.4%.   But compared to these upwardly-revised rates from February 2013, unemployment rates in February 2014 were down in all 8 metro areas.  The largest year-over-year declines were recorded for Fort Smith (-1.4%) and Memphis (-1.1%).  Smaller declines were reported for Pine Bluff and Texarkana.

From January to February, nonfarm payroll employment was up in four of the state’s metro areas (Hot Springs, Jonesboro, Memphis, and Texarkana), unchanged  in three (Fayetteville, Little Rock, and Pine Bluff), and declined in Fort Smith.  Compared to February 2013, payroll employment was higher in all areas except Pine Bluff and Texarkana.  The largest year-over-year percentage gains were for Hot Springs (+2.9%) and Jonesboro (+2.7%).  Fayetteville and Jonesboro remain the only metro areas in the state that have higher employment now than pre-recession levels.

The season of employment data revisions is almost over — but not quite.  A new report on metro area employment and unemployment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics includes some revised unemployment statistics for 2013, but the BLS data base will not be updated to reflect the full extent of data revisions until April 18.  The table below summarizes the revised unemployment data that were made available this morning.

As we noted when the state unemployment revisions came out, the updated unemployment statistics included both good news and bad news.  The bad news was that the state unemployment rate had been higher in 2012 and 2013 than previously-published data had suggested.  The good news was that more recent data showed the unemployment rate trending downward.  The same is generally true for Arkansas metro areas.  Unemployment rates for January 2013 were revised upward by magnitudes ranging from 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points.   On the other hand, the new data for January 2014 show substantial declines in unemployment for some Arkansas metro areas.  Seven of the eight metro areas covering parts of Arkansas showed declines from a year earlier, with unemployment in Pine Bluff unchanged. Unemployment rates in Memphis and Fort Smith, in particular, have fallen dramatically since January 2013.

Payroll Data
In a post earlier this week, we reported on the revisions to payroll employment data for Arkansas metro areas for 2012 and 2013.  The table below shows the most recent updates to the monthly data–January 2014.

Employment increased in January in most of the state’s metro areas, with notable exceptions of Pine Bluff and Texarkana.  In both of those southern-tier metro areas, employment was down not only for the month, but down over the past year as well.  Pine Bluff and Texarkana are also the only metro areas in the state that have continued to shed jobs since the statewide employment trough of February 2010.  At the other extreme, Jonesboro and Fayetteville have both seen employment growth of nearly 10 percent since February 2010.  These two northern-most metro areas are also distinguished by the fact that they now have higher employment than at the onset of the recession.

Yesterday’s news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics summarized unemployment in the nation’s metropolitan areas as follows:  “Unemployment rates were lower in December than a year earlier in 339 of the 372 metropolitan areas, higher in 25 areas, and unchanged in 8 areas.”  In Arkansas, the counts were far less favorable.  Compared to December 2012, unemployment rates were lower in only half of Arkansas’ metro areas — and by fairly small magnitudes.  Unemployment rates were up in three metro areas, and up sharply in Pine Bluff and Texarkana.  The rate in Little Rock was unchanged.

Smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates show that the most recent month-to-month changes were more favorable.  From November to December, unemployment rates declined in four of the state’s metro areas, were unchanged three, and ticked up by 0.1% in Fort Smith.

Over time, the smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates show that progress toward lower unemployment stalled, at best (e.g. Fayetteville, Jonesboro, Little Rock) and has reversed in other areas (Pine Bluff, Memphis, Hot Springs, Texarkana).  Overall, the state’s unemployment rate has been stuck in the range of 7% to 7.5% for the past two years.

Payroll Data
The latest data from the payroll survey show similarly stagnant trends — at least for most of the state’s metro areas.  From November to December, payroll employment declined in Fort Smith, Jonesboro, and Texarkana.  Hot Springs showed a strong month-to-month increase, but was down 0.8% from the previous year.  Pine Bluff and Texarkana also showed year-over-year declines.

Since the onset of the 2008-09 recession, 3 of the state’s 8 metro areas have recovered to the point of having positive net job growth:  Jonesboro, Fayetteville, and Little Rock.  The remaining Arkansas metro areas (along with the statewide total) remain below employment levels of December 2007.  The chart below shows that patterns of employment growth around the state have been varied.  While Fayetteville, Jonesboro and Little Rock have followed consistent recovery paths since the end of the recession, other areas have recovered more recently (e.g.  Fort Smith, Hot Springs, Memphis).  After an initial recovery phase, employment in Texarkana has been declining since early 2011.  Pine Bluff has been on a downtrend throughout the recession and recovery periods.

Household/Payroll Divergence
We have noted that the payroll and household surveys have been providing conflicting signals for statewide employment.  This is also true at the metro-level.  The following chart shows that the household measure of employment has been consistently under-reporting employment growth relative to the payroll measure.  Although the magnitudes of the growth rates differ, both surveys show the similar relative performances among the state’s metro areas.  Upcoming revisions (particularly to the payroll figures) might help reconcile the discrepancies between the two measures of employment.

Catching up from the federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released August unemployment rates for the nation’s Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) yesterday.  The data were originally scheduled to come out on October 2.

For Arkansas’ metro areas, the results were decidedly mixed.  The not-seasonally adjusted data showed year-over-year unemployment rate changes that ranged from +0.6% in Pine Bluff to -0.7% in Fort Smith.  From August 2012 to August 2013, the unemployment rate declined in three MSAs and increased in four.  In Little Rock (and statewide) the rate was unchanged.

Monthly changes — calculated using smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates — were also mixed.  From July to August, the unemployment rate declined in Fort Smith, Memphis and Texarkana.  It was up one-tenth in Pine Bluff, and unchanged in the remaining metro areas.

Note:  Payroll employment statistics were compiled before the government shutdown, and were previously reported on Arkansas Economist (here).