State level GDP data for the second quarter of 2026 was released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Arkansas GDP was reported to have increased at a 1.1% annual rate. Earlier estimates of U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter indicated a 1.5% growth rate, but today’s data release revised that estimate upward to 2.2%.

A comparison of the quarterly growth rate data reported today to previously published estimates shows significant differences. Today’s data release included revisions to the data going back to 2021. The table below compares previously-published quarterly growth rates to the new measures. With the notable exceptions of 2024:Q1 and 2025:Q2, most of the quarterly growth rate revisions were negative.

The cumulative effect of the data revisions is significant—particularly in 2024 an 2025. As of the first quarter of 2026, Arkansas GDP is now estimated to be 2.5% lower than was reported three months ago.

Of the total downward revision, about 41% was attributable to the Agriculture sector, 54% to durable goods manufacturing, and 59% to management of companies and enterprises. These contributions obviously sum to greater than 100%, meaning several sectors experienced upward revisions. Sectors showing significantly higher cumulative growth than previously estimated include nondurable goods manufacturing and finance & insurance.

Although the magnitude of the downward revision to Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting was significant, the quarter-to-quarter variability continues to be an issue in calculating the overall trend rate of GDP growth. As shown in the figure below, the year-over-year growth rate of Arkansas GDP far exceeded U.S. GDP growth rate in 2024, but fell far below the U.S. in 2025. Looking at Arkansas GDP less the agriculture sector, the overall growth-rate path is less variable, but still shows slower growth in the post-2025 quarters. In 2026:Q2, the four-quarter growth rate of Arkansas GDP was 1.1%. Excluding agriculture, the growth rate was 1.2%. U.S. growth over the same period was 2.1%.

As a result of the revisions (U.S. revised slightly higher, Arkansas revised lower) the cumulative GDP growth since 2019:Q4 for Arkansas and the U.S. are now nearly identical.

Real GDP growth slowed significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025. The third estimate for national GDP reported an annualized growth rate of 0.5%, down from 4.4% in the third quarter. Arkansas growth slowed to 0.4% in the fourth quarter, declining from a 5.8% pace in the third quarter.

A breakdown of GDP by industry shows several sectors that contributed positively to fourth quarter growth, both nationally and here in Arkansas. Examples include Wholesale trade, Retail trade, and Health Care & Social Assistance. Sectors subtracting from growth included Nondurable Goods manufacturing and Federal government employment.

Another factor suppressing GDP growth for Arkansas was a decline in Agriculture, etc. component. Just as large swings in agricultural income have been creating volatility in Arkansas Personal Income growth rates, the output of the agriculture sector has been introducing noticeable fluctuations in real GDP growth as well. In terms of year-over-year growth rates, the agriculture sector had the effect of lowering Arkansas GDP growth in 2023 and boosting it in 2024. As of the fourth quarter of 2025, four-quarter growth for the U.S. was 2.0% and only 1.5% for Arkansas. Removing the agriculture sector from the Arkansas aggregate, the state’s non-agricultural GDP growth was 2.1%.

Longer-term trends show that Arkansas GDP growth has outpaced the U.S. over the past 6 years. Cumulative growth rates from 2019:Q4 forward show growth of 17.8% in Arkansas and 14.6 for the U.S. total.

GDP data from the third quarter of 2025 show a sharp rebound in Arkansas’ production after a slow first half of the year. Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 5.8% in Q3, compared to the U.S. growth rate of 4.4%. Arkansas was reported to have the third-highest growth rate in the nation. Over the most recent four quarters, Arkansas GDP growth was 2.2% and the U.S. growth rate was 2.3%.

The news release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis noted that Durable Goods Manufacturing was the leading contributor to growth in 13 states, including Arkansas where it contributed 0.89 percentage points. Other contributors to Arkansas’ growth included Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, as well as Health Care. The only sectors in Arkansas showing declines were Construction and Government.

Cumulatively, Arkansas GDP has grown by 17.7% since the pre-covid level of 2019:Q4. Over the same period, U.S. GDP has expanded 14.5%. The figure below also illustrates the sensitivity of Arkansas GDP growth to recent swings in the Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting component. Suppressing the effects of this component has little impact on the state’s third-quarter growth, but reveals that long swings in growth since 2023 are largely attributable for corresponding swings in total GDP growth.

After showing the highest growth rate in the U.S. in the third and fourth quarters of 2024, Arkansas GDP growth in 2025:Q1 again exceeded the pace of most of the nation. As previously reported, U.S. GDP contracted at an annual rate of 0.5% in the first quarter of the year. The state-level date show that Arkansas was one of only 10 states showing positive GDP growth for the quarter, having increased at an annual rate of 0.8%. Arkansas ranked 5th-highest in growth, with other positive-growth states clustered in the southeast.

The volatile agriculture component was once again a driving factor for Arkansas GDP growth in the first quarter. After declining in 2022 and 2023, the trajectory for the Agriculture sector (which also includes forestry, fishing and hunting) has sharply recovered, expanding by 77% since the second quarter of 2024.

As shown in the table below, the agriculture sector contributed 1.6 percentage points to Arkansas GDP growth. Without that sector included, Arkansas GDP growth would have been negative at -0.8%. Nevertheless, there were other factors contributing to positive growth, including Utilities, Manufacturing, and some service-providing sectors. Sectors that contributed negative growth to the total included Construction, Wholesale and Retail Trade, along with small negative contributions from some service-providing sectors.

Including the first quarter growth, the cumulative gap between the GDP growth paths Arkansas and the U.S. continued to widen. Since the fourth quarter of 2019, Arkansas GDP has grown by 17.5% while U.S. GDP has expended by 12.0%.

Along with the fourth quarter personal income estimates, the Bureau of Economic Analysis has also released data for state-level GDP [LINK]. For the second consecutive quarter, Arkansas had the fastest growing real GDP in the nation, expanding at an annualized rate of 5.1%. Nationally, GDP grew at a 2.5% rate in the fourth quarter. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, Arkansas GDP was up 4.6%, compared to 2.5% for the U.S.

As was the case in the third quarter, Arkansas GDP was boosted by strong growth in the sector including agriculture (Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting). Indeed, in three of the four quarters of 2024 agricultural output boosted total growth significantly. Nevertheless, non-Agricultural output has grown at rates of 2.4% to 4% over the course of the year.

As detailed in the table below, the agriculture sector accounted for 40% of the state’s growth rate in the fourth quarter, with other significant growth contributions from other goods-producing sectors, as well as several service-providing sectors

Over the past five years, real GDP in Arkansas has shown cumulative growth well above the national average. Compared to 2019:Q4, Arkansas GDP has expanded 17.2%, with a comparable figure of 12.2% for the U.S. The most recent two quarters contribute to a widening of that gap.

State-level data on GDP was released today in a report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The report showed that Arkansas GDP expanded at a rate of 2.5%–well above the nation’s growth rate of 1.4% for the quarter. Arkansas growth rate ranked #11 among the 50 states.

The state’s first quarter growth rate was highest registered since the fourth quarter of 2022. Measured over the most recent four quarters, Arkansas growth rate was 1.3%, compared to 2.9% for the U.S.

A breakdown of contributions to GDP by sector shows that Arkansas’ growth rate was largely attributable to Agriculture. Construction also contributed to growth for both Arkansas and the U.S., as did most service-providing sectors.

The growth contribution of Agriculture to first-quarter GDP stands in sharp contrast to that sector’s contributions in previous quarters. Over the four quarters of 2023, Agriculture subtracted nearly a full percentage point from the state’s GDP growth. As shown in the figures below, rising farm output contributed positively to Arkansas’ overall growth rate in 2022, but was particularly relevant for the slow growth in the first half of 2023.

Without the Agriculture sector, Arkansas’ growth rate in the first quarter of 2024 would only be 0.6%. Nevertheless, the growth rate of non-Agricultural GDP over the past four quarters has been 2.1%–compared to the 1.3% growth rate for total GDP.

According to the latest figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Arkansas Real Gross Domestic Product grew at an annual rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, surpassing the 0.7% rate reported for the third quarter, but well short of the national average growth rate of 3.4%. On a year-over-year basis, Arkansas was up 1.1%, compared to 3.1% for the U.S. Comparing fourth-quarter growth rates across the 50 states, Arkansas ranked number 42.

As shown in the table below, Arkansas growth rate was constrained by declines in several sectors, including Agriculture, Wholesale Trade, Administrative & Support, and Accommodation & Food Services. Retail Trade and Durable-goods Manufacturing were the strongest growth sectors, both here an Arkansas and nationwide. The health care sector was another major contributor to growth.

Although real GDP growth has gone through two slowdowns in the past two years, the state’s cumulative growth over the past four years has outpaced that of the U.S. Since the pre-pandemic quarter, 2019:Q4, the Arkansas economy has expanded by 9.9%, compared to 8.2% for the U.S.

The largest setback for Arkansas since the Covid-contraction was in early 2022. As a result, the annual figures for 2023 versus 2022 show a growth rate of 2.5%, matching the U.S. pace. By this metric, Arkansas growth rate ranked #22 among the 50 states. In the annual figures, a decline in the Agriculture sector lowered growth by nearly a full percentage point.