Arkansas’ unemployment rate declined from 4.1% in June to 4.0% in July, remaining 0.1 percentage points lower than the U.S. average (a difference that is not statistically significant). The state and national unemployment rates are tracking closely together.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The declining unemployment rate since January has reflected six consecutive months of declines in the number of unemployed workers. That number was down 972 in July, and down a cumulative total of nearly 5,000 (-4,939) since January. Meanwhile, the number of employed workers in the household survey increased by 1,135 in July, up a cumulative total of 11,466 since January. The net increase in the total labor force was +163 in July.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
The steady gains in the size of the labor force have outpaced estimated population growth, resulting in a rising labor force participation rate. Over the past twelve months, the Arkansas participation rate has increased by 0.6 percentage points. Over the same period, the U.S. labor force participation rate has declined by by 0.8 percentage points.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Payroll Employment Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 1,500 jobs in July (seasonally adjusted). The data released by the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, which is not seasonally adjusted, showed a steeper decline of 16,500 jobs. The major seasonal component accounting for the difference is the typical mid-summer decline in employment at schools and universities.
The seasonally adjusted data show declines in a number of sectors, with the largest monthly declines in Professional & Business Services and Leisure and Hospitality Services. Transportation & Utilities and Construction both showed notable increases for the month.
Over the past year, Arkansas nonfarm payrolls have only increased by 1,900 jobs, a percentage increase of a little over 0.1%. The slowdown in payroll employment growth generally tracks along with the national average. Over the past 12 months, U.S. payrolls have expanded by 0.2%.
Measures of household and payroll employment for Arkansas have diverged significantly over the past year, with the household data showing an increase of 1.7%. It’s not unusual for the two measures to diverge somewhat, but persistent differences like those observed over the past year indicate a likelihood that future revisions to the data will reconcile the two. In the meantime, the payroll data is generally considered to be the more accurate indicator.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.
Unemployment rates in Arkansas’ metropolitan areas generally declined in June. Unemployment held steady in Fort Smith and Texarkana, but declined by 0.1 percentage points in all of the other metro areas that cover parts of Arkansas. The declines contribute to a trend of falling unemployment rates since the beginning of the year. From January through June, rates declined by 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points, with the exceptions of Memphis (unchanged) and Texarkana (-0.1).
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates
The unemployment rates reported for June show that Northwest Arkansas, Central Arkansas, and Jonesboro all have unemployment below the statewide and national averages. The remaining metro areas have rates equal to or slightly above the state and national levels.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates
Payroll Employment Nonfarm payroll employment declined in all of Arkansas’ metro areas except for Northwest Arkansas in June. The job losses continue a trend of weakening employment growth over the past several months. Three-month changes are negative in six metro areas, and the year-over-year changes are negative in three.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
Over the longer-term, employment growth remains concentrated in a limited number of metro areas—particularly Northwest Arkansas, Central Arkansas, and Jonesboro.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
In the latest report on state-level employment and unemployment, the household survey shows continuing employment growth and a downtick in the unemployment rate. However, the payroll survey shows a fairly sharp monthly decline.
The unemployment rate declined from 4.2% in May to 4.1% in June. The U.S. unemployment rate was previously reported to have declined from 4.3% to 4.2%. Arkansas continues to closely track the national unemployment rate.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The underlying components of the unemployment rate all continued to show positive trends. The number of unemployed was down by 911—the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Meanwhile, the number of employed continued an increasing trend, as did the total labor force.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
Payroll Employment In contrast to the household measure of employment, nonfarm payroll employment declined in June. Total employment dropped by 2,200 to 1,343,000–the lowest reading for Arkansas nonfarm payrolls since November 2025 (seasonally adjusted data).
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
Employment in goods-producing sectors increased in June, while the weakness was concentrated in service-providing sectors—many of which have been driving positive employment growth in recent months. The largest decline was in Educational & Health Services; however, the drop was entirely attributable to Educational Services. Health Care & Social Assistance was basically unchanged for the month (+100). Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, and Financial Services were all down.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
Compared to June of 2026, total payroll employment was up by 4,700, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 0.4%. Over the same period, U.S. payrolls expanded by only 0.3%. Both state and national payroll growth have been steadily slowing over time, with growth rates of less than 1.0% since at least the early months of 2025.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
The contrast between short term movements in household employment and payroll employment continue to present a puzzle. The two measures can deviate significantly over relatively short time periods, but we expect them to reflect common trends over time and with data revisions. The question is, therefore, is household employment overstating growth, or is payroll employment understating it? We will continue to monitor these developments.
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Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.
The latest data on state-level employment and unemployment suggest an emerging downtrend in Arkansas unemployment, along with continued steady employment growth.
In the household survey data the unemployment rate ticked down one tenth of a percent from 4.3% in April to 4.2% in May. The national unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% for the month. Having increased through most of 2025, the Arkansas unemployment rate has come down slightly to now be only 0.2 percentage points higher than a year ago.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
In the Arkansas data, the number of unemployed declined for a fourth consecutive month, falling by 1,285 in May, and over 3,000 since January. The number of employed was also up in May, increasing by 2,452. As a result, the labor force expanded by 1,167. Compared to May of 2025, Arkansas employment is is up by 21,532, while unemployment is higher by 3,942.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
Payroll Employment Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 600 in May, and was revised up by 800 in the data for April (seasonally adjusted data).
Professional & Business Services showed strong growth, with contributions from both the Professional, Scientific, & Technical and Administrative & Support categories showing increases. Wholesale Trade and Durable Goods Manufacturing also showed monthly increases. On the other hand, employment in Nondurables Manufacturing was down in May, along with Education & Health Services (representing an unexpected stalling of trend growth).
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
Over the past 12 months, payroll employment has increased by less than 6,000 jobs, amounting to a growth rate of 0.4%. Over the same period, the growth rate of U.S. employment has been approximately 0.3%.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
With the household survey showing an annual increase of over 21,000 employed and the payroll survey indicating an increase of less than 6,000 jobs, the two elements of the monthly employment report are tending to diverge. This is not unusual, but we would typically expect the trends to realign over time and with revisions to the data. Although the household survey might be overstating growth or the payroll survey understating it, both measures indicate ongoing positive growth.
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Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.
Annual revisions of the employment data for metropolitan areas is nearly complete. However, the Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted measures of employment and unemployment have yet to be updated.
Looking at the available data for March 2026, the not-seasonally adjusted unemployment data show a range of unemployment rates across the state’s metro areas. Northwest Arkansas continues to show the lowest unemployment rate in the state, while Hot Springs presently has the highest rate. Compared to March 2025, unemployment rates have risen in all metro areas except Memphis. (For reference, the not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the state of Arkansas in March 2026 was 4.2%, up from 3.8% in March 2025.)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
Payroll Employment From February to March, nonfarm payroll employment increased in Northwest Arkansas, Jonesboro, Memphis, and Texarkana. Employment was down slightly in Little Rock, and unchanged in Fort Smith and Hot Springs. Over the past 12 months, employment has increased by 2.2% in Northwest Arkansas and by 1.1% in Central Arkansas. Other areas have shown smaller increases. Fort Smith is down by 0.7% and Hot Springs is 0.2% lower than in March 2025.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
Over the past six years, employment gains in Northwest, Central Arkansas, and Jonesboro have been significant. Hot Springs is up by 2.0% over the 6 year period, while Memphis and Texarkana have experienced job losses over that time span.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
The latest report on state employment and unemployment suggests that Arkansas labor markets are continuing to absorb an increasing labor force, but payroll employment growth is following a slowing trend.
The Arkansas unemployment rate edged lower, down from 4.4% in February to 4.3% in March. That change mirrored the U.S. unemployment rate. After several years of having lower unemployment than the rest of the nation, Arkansas is presently tracking right along with the national average.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The drop in March’s unemployment rate reflected two consecutive monthly declines in the number of unemployed. Meanwhile, the number of employed continued to rise, driving labor force higher. The trend in employment and labor force indicates that economy that is absorbing new entrants and re-entrants, with some experiencing periods of unemployment in the process.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 59.2% in March. Over the past three years we’ve seen a steady increase in Arkansas’ participation rate, while the national rate was holding steady, and more recently, trending downward.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Payroll Employment Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 1,300 jobs in March, following a revised 500-job decline in February (seasonally adjusted data). The press release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services noted that job-gains in the not-seasonally adjusted data were largely seasonally related. For Construction, Leisure and Hospitality, and Government (which showed notable increases in the not-seasonally adjusted data), the seasonally adjusted measures indicate that any gains were associated with predictable seasonal patterns. After accounting for those patterns, adjusted employment declined slightly in all three of those sectors.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
More generally, the data show a prevalence of sectors showing declines in March, with the largest loss in Retail Trade (-600). Among the handful of sectors showing higher employment, the most notable was in Education and Health Services (driven entirely by the Health Care and Social Assistance sector).
Compared to a year ago, employment changes across sectors are a mixed bag. The major service sectors continue to show robust growth, along with the sectors comprising Trade, Transportation and Utilities. Goods-producing sectors are all down over the year, along with Information Services, Financial Services, and Government.
The year-over-year growth rate of Arkansas payroll employment in March was only 0.5%. By this measure of growth, both Arkansas and the U.S. have been experiencing a notable downward trend. Nevertheless, the growth rate in Arkansas remains higher than the rest of the nation. The U.S. growth rate from March 2025 to March 2026 was only 0.2%.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
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Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.
Still catching up with delayed data releases, the Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday came out with state-level data on employment and unemployment for February. The headline news was that the unemployment rate was unchanged from January at 4.4%. It was previously reported that the U.S. unemployment rate increased from 4.3% to 4.4% from January to February, then reverted back to 4.3% in March. The differences between Arkansas and U.S. unemployment rates are tiny, and nowhere near the level of statistical significance.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The underlying data from the household survey are a bit more interesting: After rising steadily through nearly all of 2024 and 2025, the number of unemployed declined slightly in February. In conjunction with a similarly-small decline in December, the rising number of unemployed appears to have leveled-off. Meanwhile, the number of employed continued to increase in February, reaching a new record high.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
The steady increase in the labor force has been outpacing the population growth rate, resulting in an increasing trend for the labor force participation rate. In it’s press release, the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services pointed out that February’s participation rate (59.2%) was the highest reading for that measure since October of 2012.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Payroll Employment From the establishment survey, Nonfarm Payroll Employment was little changed in February (seasonally adjusted data). Sectors with declining employment included Durable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation and Utilities, and Other Services. Notable increases were recorded for Construction, Wholesale Trade, Education& Health, and Leisure & Hospitality Services. The gains and losses largely cancelled out, with the total declining by 100 jobs.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
Over the past twelve months, the Arkansas economy added 9,100 payroll jobs, representing an increase of 0.7%. Over the same period, U.S. payroll employment expanded by only 0.1%. The year-over-year data for Arkansas show strong gains for Leisure & Hospitality Services, Education & Health Services, and Professional & Business Services. Declining sectors include Manufacturing (both durable and nondurable goods), Financial Services, Information Services and Government.
Since the pre-COVID peak of February 2020, Arkansas payrolls have expanded by 83,700, or 6.6%. Over the same period, U.S. payroll employment has grown by 4.0%.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
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Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.
As discussed last week with regard to state payroll employment, this year’s annual benchmark revisions were unusually extensive for Arkansas. Typically, the published monthly data reported in Current Economic Statistics (CES) are revised by aligning the series with the more accurate benchmark data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). The QCEW is based on state unemployment insurance records, so it is often referred to as “covered employment.”
This year, there was also a refinement of the methodology for estimating non-covered employment. The impact of that modification was then back-cast all the way to the beginning of the data series, 1990. For observations over the past several years, this revision had the effect of lowering the entire path of the data, but presumably leaves the short-run growth rates and fluctuations intact. In that sense, the shift in series levels had no significant economic effect.
For Arkansas metro areas, the level-shift portion of the revision affected Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Fort Smith, and Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway. There was no evident longer-term revisions for Hot Springs, Jonesboro, Memphis, or Texarkana (although seasonal factors were re-estimated for all series).
In order to identify the revisions due to the literal re-benching of the series to QCEW data, we can express the pre-revision and post-revision series as indexes, where the two series are aligned as of a certain date. As we have done in past analysis, we will use February 2020 as the reference point. The figures below illustrate the nature of the benchmark revisions that affected recent growth rates and trends.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The impacts of these revisions on recent growth trends are summarized in the table below. Among the one-year growth rates, all metro areas except for Jonesboro and Hot Springs showed downward revisions. Over the longer span—since February 2020—only Hot Springs and Little Rock were revised higher. For Memphis and Texarkana, the revisions changed positive growth figures into negatives—over both time horizons.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Latest Data The newest data released last week covered January 2026. With the revised history now incorporated into the data, the chart and table below summarize the most recent growth rates and trends.
After longer-than-usual delays associated with federal government shutdowns last year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics finally released new state-level employment data for January 2026, along with the annual data revisions. In general, the revised and updated data paint a picture of weaker labor market conditions than were indicated by the unrevised data.
A case in point is Arkansas’ unemployment rate. As shown in the figure below, the pre-revision data was showing a gradual increase in unemployment during the second half of 2024 and through all of 2025. After revision, we see that the increase in unemployment took place more rapidly during 2025 than originally estimated. By the end of the year, the unrevised data a state unemployment rate of 4.2%, with a revised figure for December of 4.3%. Although this is a relatively small revision for December, the data for the summer months was revised to show unemployment rates as much as 0.4% higher than originally published.
The new information for January 2026 shows an unemployment rate of 4.4%, one-tenth of a percentage point higher than the U.S. average (although the difference is not statistically significant).
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
Payroll Employment Nonfarm payroll employment was also subject to annual benchmark revisions (discussed below). For January, payroll employment increased by 1,800 jobs (seasonally adjusted, revised data). As shown in the table, most sectors saw employment gains, with the exception of Construction, Retail Trade, and Leisure & Hospitality Services.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
Over the past year, most sectors have experienced employment growth, with an overall increase of 11,600 jobs (approximately 0.9%). particularly notable are declining employment figures for Construction and Manufacturing. For manufacturing (both durable and nondurable goods), the newly revised data show that employment is lower now than it was prior to the onset of the COVID pandemic. This is a revelation that stems from the new data revisions.
Payroll Data Revisions The annual benchmark revisions for nonfarm payroll employment were significantly larger than usual–at least for Arkansas. As of December 2025, the new total for payroll employment is 3.7% lower than previously reported. This was the largest revision among the 50 states plus District of Columbia.
A significant share of the downward revision was attributable to a rebasing of the entire employment series. Data as far back as 1990 was revised significantly lower, affecting the level of employment not just for recent years, but throughout the entire history of employment data for the state. An inquiry to the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services yielded an explanation that this source of revision had to do with the way non-covered employment was calculated (i.e., employment not subject to unemployment insurance). Because these revisions shifted the level of the entire structure of employment over 36 years, this source of revision is not economically significant. That is, the changes have little impact on recent employment growth trends.
On the other hand, the usual benchmarking process that uses updated source data over the past two years was also larger than usual. Of particular note were revisions to employment growth in manufacturing. As shown in the figures below, growth over the past 15-18 months has been considerably slower than previously reported. From October 2024 through December 2025, the originally-published data showed an increase of 1.9% for durable goods employment and 1.2% for nondurable goods employment. After revision the new series show a decline of 3.5% for durable goods, and zero net change in nondurable goods.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
The other goods-producing sector that has shown declining employment over the past 12 months, construction, had a different revision pattern. Although construction employment has been declining for the past 18 months, the revised data show the decline to be attenuated relative to the originally-published figures.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
In order to control for the long-term rebasing of the series back to 1990, we can examine the employment index that we usually use to compare growth trends in Arkansas with the U.S. By using index values using the pre-COVID month of February 2020 as a base period, it is possible to compare trends before and after revision with the total U.S. equivalent. As shown below, the newly revised data show a slower recovery of employment from mid-2020 through 2022, as well as a slower growth trend in 2024 and 2025. Overall, the revised data show employment in December 2025 was 6.3% higher than in February 2020, while the previously-published data had shown 7.7% growth over that period.
The Figure below shows year over year growth rates for 2023-2025. The new revisions have the effect of raising Arkansas employment growth in 2023 (from 1.2% to 1.8%), and lowering growth in 2024 and 2025. Notably, the revised Arkansas employment data show higher growth rates than the U.S. over all three years. In particular, even the 0.65% growth rate in 2025 outpaces the near-zero growth for the U.S. total.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
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Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.
Arkansas metropolitan areas ended the year 2025 with rising unemployment rates, juxtaposed against a backdrop of employment growth that is slowing in some parts of the state but continuing to expand in other areas.
In December, unemployment rates were either unchanged or slightly higher than the previous month. Over the past several months, the rise in unemployment has been significant, with rates increasing by 0.4 to 0.7 percentage points in just the second half of the year (with the notable exception of Memphis, which has maintained a relatively steady unemployment rate).
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates
Payroll Employment Nonfarm payroll employment changes were mixed in December. Fort smith, Hot Springs, Memphis and Texarkana experienced declining employment for the month, while Northwest Arkansas, Central Arkansas, and Jonesboro registered employment gains.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
The pattern of relative growth rates is evident in longer term trends as well. Northwest Arkansas has consistently shown the strongest job growth in the state, with Central Arkansas and Jonesboro maintaining relatively strong growth rates as well. Over the most recent 12 months, Texarkana has also trended higher. Fort Smith, Hot Springs, and Texarkana have grown relatively slowly over the past five years, increasing by only one or two percent relative to February 2020.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
County Unemployment Rates An end-of-year snapshot of unemployment rates around the state shows a typical pattern. The areas of high unemployment are concentrated in the southeast, with some high-unemployment counties in north-central Arkansas as well. In and around the rapidly growing metropolitan areas, unemployment rates remain below 4%.
