A forum for information and analysis on the Arkansas economy

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – June 2021

The statewide employment data for June showed little change in Arkansas labor market conditions, and the newly-released data for metropolitan areas consistent with that conclusion.  On a not-seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rates in Arkansas metro areas rose by 0.4 to 1.2 percentage points, but those changes were typical for June (after the school-year ends).  After seasonable adjustment unemployment rates in Arkansas metro areas were generally unchanged.  The unemployment rate ticked up one-tenth percent in Memphis and down two-tenths in Fort Smith, but was unchanged elsewhere.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Compared to a year ago, unemployment rates were down significantly across the state, with the largest declines tending to be in those metro areas (and counties) that saw the largest spikes in 2020.  Compared to pre-pandemic levels in February 2020, unemployment rates are running about one to two percentage points higher in metro areas.

Payroll Employment
Changes in nonfarm payroll employment were mixed.  Employment was higher in five of Arkansas’ metro areas, down slightly in Fort Smith, and unchanged in Jonesboro and Little Rock.  Compared to June 2021, employment has recovered considerably in all metro areas, but remains lower than pre-pandemic levels.  With the monthly increase in June, payrolls in the Fayetteville metro area had nearly recovered to the February 2020 reading.  In other metro areas, the net declines range from -1.8% in Fort Smith to -3.8 in Little Rock.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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Arkansas Retail Sales – March & April 2021

After a brief weather-related contraction in February, consumer spending surged in March and remained elevated in April.  Data for Arkansas Retail Sales shows that spending patterns in our state are matching the national data, with even larger increases relative to pre-pandemic levels.*

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Arkansas Economic Development Institute

Severe snowstorms hit Arkansas relatively hard in February, but March saw a rebound amounting to a 22% increase for the month, nearly doubling the 11.3% surge in U.S. Retail Sales.  Sales in every three-digit industry group showed sharp increases, ranging from 7.5% at Food & Beverage Stores to 48% at Clothing Stores.  The relative magnitude of increase across sectors was similar in the nationwide data, with the largest increases tending to be associated with the sectors that experienced larger declines in February.  In April, Arkansas Retail Sales were down nearly 4%, but remained well above recent levels.  Gains and losses were mixed, but sharp declines in Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers, Electronics and Appliance Stores and Food and Beverage Stores.  The decline in the Motor Vehicle sector is likely overstated: data limitations inhibit our ability to measure and incorporate recent increases in new and used car prices into the data.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Arkansas Economic Development Institute

As indicated in the chart for total Retail and Food Services Sales above, consumer spending is far higher now then before the COVID-19 pandemic struck the economy in March 2020.  As measured from a baseline of July-December 2019, the average for March and April 2021 is up over 20% for the U.S. and up nearly 29% in Arkansas.  In both the state and national data, increases are widespread across Retail Trade sectors, but remain lower at bars and restaurants—at least in the nationwide data.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Arkansas Economic Development Institute

Here in Arkansas, however, sales at Food Service and Drinking Places had been running at nearly the same pace as late 2019 for several months, and the March-April spending surge pushed total spending well above pre-pandemic levels:  In April, sales at Arkansas bars and restaurants were 16% higher than in late 2019.  Nationwide, spending at bars and restaurants recovered to pre-pandemic levels for the first time.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Arkansas Economic Development Institute

At the county level, our data covers Retail Sales excluding gasoline stations (not seasonally adjusted).  As shown in the interactive map below, there is no county left behind when it comes to rising consumer spending.  Again comparing March-April averages to levels in the second half of 2019, Prairie and Arkansas Counties have shown the smallest increases, up 7.5% and 11.6% respectively.  At the other extreme, Woodruff County was up 49.4% and Fulton County was up 54.5%.  The median growth among counties was 36.1%.

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Documentation of Methodology is available here: Arkansas Retail Sales—A New Data Set from AEDI.

Data for Arkansas Retail and Food Service Sales for July 2017 through April 2021 are available in an Excel Spreadsheet:  Arkansas-Retail-Sales-Apr-2020.  The data set includes statewide aggregates and components, both seasonally adjusted and not-seasonally adjusted. County-level data for Total Retail and Food Service Sales excluding Gasoline are available on a not-seasonally adjusted basis.

*Technical Note:  The methodology for calculating Retail Sales for Saline County has been updated to incorporate the county-level sales tax that was implemented in April 2019.  In earlier versions of the data set, we used aggregates of sales tax collections for the cities of Saline County, scaled to approximate total county-wide spending.  Actual county-level data are now used for the period December 2019 forward, with scaled sum-of-cities data (for each three-digit industry group separately) spliced to cover the period July 2017 through November 2019.

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Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – June 2021

Labor market indicators suggest that the Arkansas economy was treading water in June.  The unemployment rate was unchanged, standing at 4.4% for the fourth month in a row and payroll employment was essentially unchanged.  Arkansas’ 4.4% unemployment rate is less than one percentage point higher than pre-COVID rates, and was 1.5 percentage points lower than the nationwide unemployment rate of 5.9% in June.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Not only was the unemployment rate unchanged in June, but the underlying components were essentially flat as well.  The number of unemployed was up for the first time since the pandemic struck labor markets in April 2020, but the increase was only 500.  By comparison, the number of unemployed had declined by 7,800 over the first five months of the year.  The household survey showed that the number of employed was down, but only by 750.  As a result, the labor force contracted by 250.  None of these changes are economically or statistically significant.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in June as well, with a small net increase of 400 jobs (seasonally adjusted).  Not-seasonally adjusted data showed a slight decline in total employment (-3,700 jobs) but the declines were entirely attributable to the end-of-school-year effects, reflected in lower employment in Educational Services and in State and Local government.  These declines were partly offset by seasonal employment gains in Leisure and Hospitality Services.  After seasonal adjustment to account for these typical recurring patterns, employment in (private) Educational Services was up slightly, while State and Local Government employment was down somewhat.  Hiring in Leisure and Hospitality sectors was up slightly after seasonal adjustment (indicating a larger-than-typical June expansion)

As shown in the table below, Nondurables Manufacturing resumed its recent downward trend in June after showing a sight increase a month earlier.  Employment in Construction and Retail Trade was also down for the month.  Nearly all service-providing sectors showed employment gains, particularly Professional & Business Services.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Nearly all sectors have shown substantial growth since June 2020—with the notable exceptions of Nondurables Manufacturing and Government employment.  Compared to pre-pandemic levels, employment remains down by more than 27 thousand.  A handful of sectors have recovered enough to show net gains since February 2020, including Construction, Durables Manufacturing, Retail Trade and Financial Services.

In percentage terms, Arkansas payroll employment was 2.1% lower than in February 2020.  Nationwide, employment remains 4.4% lower than before the pandemic.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE. 

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Arkansas GDP – 2021:Q1

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis recently published state-level estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter of 2021.  The report showed widespread recovery from the COVID-19-induced recession of 2020, with all 50 states showing sizable quarterly growth.  Annualized rates ranged from 4.5% in Texas to 10.9% in Nevada.  Arkansas’ growth rate for the quarter was 6.9%, slightly higher than the nationwide average of 6.4%.

A breakdown of quarterly growth rates by sector shows that Arkansas outpaced the national average in most industries.  For some sectors, including Retail trade and Transportation & Warehousing, Arkansas’ growth rate was slower in the first quarter, but had already displayed above-average recovery in the second half of 2020.  The largest contributor to growth was in Durable Goods Manufacturing, which contributed nearly 2 percentage points to the state’s growth rate.  The report from the BEA noted that “This industry was the leading contributor to the increases in 24 states.”  Arkansas trends were also consistent with nationwide patterns showing rapid growth in Information Services, as well as in  Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services.  Arkansas, along with 35 other states, also followed the national trend of seeing negative growth in Nondurable Goods Manufacturing.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The second two columns of the table show cumulative GDP growth since the fourth quarter of 2019 (which has been officially designated as the quarterly business cycle peak).  Arkansas is one of only fifteen states that are producing more now than before the pandemic (see also the figure below).  In other words, Arkansas and 14 other states have apparently completed the recovery phase of the economic expansion. In some sectors, growth has been substantial: for example, Finance and Insurance has grown at an average rate of 9.0% over the most recent 5 quarters covered.  Several sectors continue to show the lingering effects of the economic contraction at both the state and national levels: production remains lower than pre-pandemic levels in Transportation & Warehousing, Education, Health Care, and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Data on GDP, particularly at the state level, is often subject to substantial revision.  The BEA will report revised historical statistics when the second-quarter data are released on October 1.

 

 

 

 

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Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – May 2021

Statewide employment trends have shown a slow pace of recovery over the past three months, and the data for the state’s metropolitan areas generally reflect that

Unemployment rates were unchanged in five of the state’s metro areas, but declined slightly in Fort Smith, Jonesboro and Little Rock. The 0.2 percentage point decline in Fort Smith came on top of a 0.1 percentage point downward revision to April’s unemployment rate. On the other hand, Jonesboro, Little Rock, and Pine Bluff all saw upward revisions of 0.1 percentage points for April.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Compared to a year ago, unemployment rates have fallen significantly in all of Arkansas’ metro areas. Of course, that’s not surprising. The News Release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported “Unemployment rates were lower in May than a year earlier in all 389 metropolitan areas” across the United States. The relative magnitudes of the changes largely reflect the initial impacts of COVID-19 driving unemployment rates higher a year ago. For example, Hot Springs experienced the largest spike in unemployment last spring and has shown the largest decline since then. Unemployment rates remain one to two percentage points higher than in the pre-pandemic month of February 2020. The fact that the statewide rate has fallen to within 0.6 percentage points of it’s February 2020 rate suggests that the non-metropolitan areas of the state have recovered more fully.

Such a pattern is borne out in a breakdown of unemployment rate changes by county. Because the data for counties are not seasonally adjusted, the map below measures changes from May 2019 to May 2021. In a handful of counties, unemployment rates are lower in May 2021 than they were two years earlier. Unemployment rates in metropolitan areas remain elevated, along with several counties in the Delta region. The aggregate for all metropolitan counties in May was 4.2% up 1.3 percentage points from two years earlier. For nonmetropolitan counties, the May unemployment rate—while somewhat higher at 4.9%—was only 0.8 percentage points higher than in May of 2019.

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment was up 0.3% statewide in May (seasonally adjusted), but metro area estimates varied considerably. Employment in Jonesboro and Texarkana surged by 1.7% and 1.3%, respectively; and payrolls also expanded in Fayetteville, Hot Springs and Memphis. Employment declined for the month in Little Rock and Pine Bluff, and was unchanged in Fort Smith. Compared to February 2020, employment is down across all metro areas, with the net declines ranging from -0.5% in Northwest Arkansas to -4.0% in Central Arkansas.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – May 2021

Although Arkansas labor markets have recovered considerably over the past several months, progress toward the return to full-employment has clearly slowed.  For the third consecutive month, the Arkansas unemployment rate registered 4.4%.  The number of unemployed Arkansans continues to decline, falling by 762 in May with a cumulative three-month decline of 2,528.  But with household employment expanding slowly or not at all (down by 3,971 in May), contraction of the labor force is matching the declining unemployment, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged (at least to the nearest tenth of a percent).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Arkansas’ unemployment rate has come down considerably from its peak of 10% in April 2020, but remains above pre-pandemic levels.  The national unemployment rate in May was.5.8%, significantly higher than the Arkansas rate.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment
Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment increased by 3,400 in May (seasonally adjusted).  Sectors showing notable increases included Manufacturing (both Durables and Nondurables), Wholesale Trade, Education & Health Services, and Government.  The increases in Education Services and Government reflect, in part, unusual seasonal patterns. Typically, education-related employment declines in May, but the declines this year are smaller than usual.  Hence, the seasonally-adjusted figures show increases.  Similarly, employment in both Retail Trade and Leisure & Hospitality Services typically rise sharply in May, but the seasonal increases this year appear smaller than usual so the seasonally-adjusted data for these series indicate small declines.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Over the past 12 months, payroll employment has expanded by 70,200, with sharp recovery in the Leisure & Hospitality sector, Retail Trade, Durables Manufacturing and Professional & Business Services.  Compared to the pre-pandemic employment peak in February 2020, Arkansas employment is down by 31,600—approximately 2.2%.  Nationwide, employment in May remained 5.0% lower than in February 2020.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE. 

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Metro Area Employment & Unemployment – April 2021

In a month where the statewide unemployment rate and payroll employment totals were essentially unchanged, labor market indicators for Arkansas’ metropolitan areas were mixed in April.

From March to April, unemployment rates declined slightly in Northwest Arkansas, Fort Smith, Jonesboro and Little Rock; but increased in Memphis, Pine Bluff and Texarkana (Hot Springs was unchanged).  One year ago, unemployment rates peaked during the harshest period of pandemic-related economic business closures.  Since that time, rates have dropped significantly. The largest decline from a year ago was in Hot Springs, where the unemployment rate peaked at over 15% but had fallen to 5.9 by April 2021. The unemployment rate in Pine Bluff has only fallen 3.7 percentage points since April 2020, but at its peak was only 4.6 percentage points above pre-pandemic levels. All eight of the metro areas that include parts of Arkansas have higher unemployment rates than in February 2020, with net increases ranging from 0.9 percentage points in Northwest Arkansas and Pine Bluff to 2.8 percentage points in Memphis.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment increased in Fayetteville, Hot Springs, and Little Rock but was down across the state’s other metro areas.  Net changes from a year ago reflect progress toward recovering lost employment, with the largest increase—over 17% in Hot Springs—reflects the magnitude of last year’s downturn.  Employment has risen 10% over the past year in Fayetteville and Texarkana, leaving Fayetteville down less than one percent from pre-pandemic levels.  Texarkana, which suffered a larger initial decline in employment last April, remains 4.0% below pre-pandemic levels.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

 

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Arkansas Retail Sales – February 2021

When the national retail sales statistics for February were released, a downturn in consumer spending was attributed to a wave of heavy snow and bitterly cold weather across the country.  Arkansas being near the heart of that storm, it is not surprising that Arkansas Retail Sales showed a decline for the month.  Total Retail and Food Services Sales declined 4.9% from January (seasonally adjusted) compared with a 3.3% decline nationwide (revised data).

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Arkansas Economic Development Institute

The monthly slowdown in sales was evident in nearly every retail industry group, both nationally and here in Arkansas, with particularly large declines at Clothing Stores and Health and Personal Care Stores.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Arkansas Economic Development Institute

The only exception was for sales at Motor Vehicles and Parts Dealers. As we speculated in the report for January, the inclement weather in February might have resulted in postponement of vehicle registrations, and if so we might expect for some of that overhang to show up in the data as sales in February.  That appears to have been the case.  The February data show sales at Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers up 27.2% from the previous month, and up 22.6% compared to February of 2020.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Arkansas Economic Development Institute

Compared to February 2020, several retail industry groups are recording sharp increases, including Building Materials, etc., Food & Beverage Stores, Sporting Goods, etc.,  and Nonstore retailers (including online shopping).  Sales within some industry groups remain suppressed by the COVID-19 pandemic, including Clothing Stores, Electronics and Appliance Stores, as well as Food Services.

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Arkansas Retail Sales are constructed from county-level sales tax data obtained from the Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration. Documentation of our methodology is available here: Arkansas Retail Sales—A New Data Set from AEDI.

Data for Arkansas Retail and Food Service Sales for July 2017 through January 2021 are available in an Excel Spreadsheet:  Arkansas-Retail-Sales-Feb-2021.

The data set includes statewide aggregates and components, both seasonally adjusted and not-seasonally adjusted.  County-level data for Total Retail and Food Service Sales ex Gasoline, and ex Gas and Auto, are available on a not-seasonally adjusted basis.

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Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – April 2021

Labor markets in Arkansas generally continued to improve in April, but at a much slower pace than in the early months of the recovery.  First, the state’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.4%, still significantly lower than the national unemployment rate of 6.1%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The underlying data from the household report showed an increase in the number of employed (+2,779) and a decline in the number of unemployed (-795), so technically the Arkansas unemployment rate declined in April, just not enough to register a change of even one-tenth of a percent (and not nearly enough to be statistically significant).  The increase in employment was also associated with a net increase in labor force participation.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment was little changed in April. The not-seasonally adjusted data showed an increase of 6,100 jobs, but much of that increase was in industries that typically add jobs during the spring, including Leisure & Hospitality, as well as Administrative and Support Services.  After seasonal adjustment, Arkansas payroll employment showed a slight decline – down 1,300 jobs.  Today’s report also included an upward revision of 1,200 to the preliminary employment total reported for March, so the net new information indicates little change.  Arkansas employment remains 2.4% lower than in February 2020.  By comparison, U.S. employment is still down 5.4% from the previous peak.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

As shown in the table below, employment declines showed up in the Trade, Transportation and Utilities sectors, as well as in Financial Services.  Nondurable manufacturing experienced a decline in April that was enough to make the year-over-year change slightly negative.  With the exception of Financial Services, the service-providing sectors all added jobs in April.  Within the broad super-sectors, noteworthy increases were reported in Administrative & Support Services (a component of Professional & Business Services), as well as the Accommodation & Food Service component of Leisure & Hospitality.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

It was one year ago the employment hit bottom, so the year-over-year figures this month directly measure the recovery from the downturn of March-April 2020.  Over the past 12 months, the state’s payrolls have increased by 96,400 with significant gains in the sectors that were hardest-hit during the downturn.  Several sectors now show higher employment than before the pandemic-related downturn, including Durables Manufacturing, Retail Trade, Financial Services and Other Services.

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Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE. 

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Metro Area Employment & Unemployment – March 2021

New statistics for metro area employment and unemployment were released this morning.  The data show that recovery from the pandemic-related unemployment spike of April 2020 continues across the state.

Revisions to the household survey data, from which unemployment rates are calculated, are taking longer than usual.  Data for 1990 through 2009 were issued on March 19 and data for 2010 through 2020 were released on April 16.  Seasonal-adjustment models are still going through re-fitting and are not yet available.  The revised data that came out two weeks ago showed that unemployment rate spikes in April 2020 were not quite as severe as estimated at the time.  As shown in the figure below, unemployment rate peaks were revised downward in all metro areas except Memphis (+0.2) and Texarkana (unch.).  The ranking of unemployment rates among Arkansas metro areas was unchanged by the revision, with Hot Springs and Texarkana showing the highest unemployment rates.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

The data released this morning showed that unemployment rates continue to decline.  Unemployment in Northwest Arkansas has fallen below 4% and Jonesboro reached that benchmark in March.  The most significant recovery is Hot Springs, down 8.9 percentage points from April 2020 through March 2021.  As of March, Pine Bluff and Texarkana had the highest unemployment rates among Arkansas metro areas.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to increase in six of the eight metro areas that cover parts of Arkansas.  Employment in Northwest Arkansas was unchanged for the month and Hot Springs saw a decline of 1.0%.  With the March downturn, Hot Springs remains 4.0% below the employment level of March 2020.  Jonesboro, Little Rock, Memphis and Texarkana have also seen year-over-year declines larger than the statewide average (-2.0%) but none of the Arkansas metro areas have suffered job losses as large as the national average (-4.5%).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

The figure below provides more detail on the relative magnitudes of employment losses last spring, as well as the state of recovery as of March 2021 (with the data indexed to a common value of 100 for February 2020).  Pine Bluff experienced the smallest percentage decline in employment from February 2020 through April 2020, and remains the metro area with the smallest net decline since the onset of the pandemic.  Hot Springs suffered the state’s largest decline in April 2020, and was showing signs of a significant rebound until the first part of 2021. The Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metro area saw 2020 job losses commensurate with those in Memphis and Little Rock, but has rebounded to be nearly tied with Pine Bluff for the smallest net decline since February 2020.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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Special Reports: Impact of Covid-19 on the Arkansas Economy

Arkansas Consumer Spending in 2020
One of the most significant and unexpected features of the Arkansas economy during the COVID-19 pandemic has been the robust behavior of consumer spending…
Read more…

Leisure and Hospitality Industries in Arkansas–2020
Of all the sectors of the economy hat have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, industries in the Leisure and Hospitality category have been among the hardest-hit…
Read more…

Forecast Update (July)
“Incoming data have continued to show a more rapid recovery from the COVID-19 shutdowns than previously expected.”
Read more…

Forecast Update (June)
Information since May has suggested that Arkansas has not been as severely impacted as other parts of the country, and that the sharp declines in national employment have abated.
Read more…

Forecast Update (May)
“The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to be more rapid and more severe than initially expected… In this updated report we present new projections for the Arkansas economy.”
Read more…

Forecast Update (April)
“In this note we update that forecast with new estimates of the magnitude of the downturn. We also update and extend our previous guidance on how the forecast is likely to impact sales tax receipts of local governments.”
Read more …

Implications for Local Government Sales Tax Collections
“In this note, we focus on consumer spending and the outlook for sales tax collections by county and municipal governments.” Read more…

Arkansas Economic Outlook (March)
“It appears that a dramatic downturn in economic activity over the remainder of 2020 is unavoidable for the nation and for Arkansas.”  Read more…

 

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