A forum for information and analysis on the Arkansas economy

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – November 2020

The latest employment report for metropolitan areas showed that nonfarm payroll employment expanded in most of Arkansas’ metropolitan area.  The exceptions were Memphis and Little Rock, which were both essentially unchanged.  Employment in Hot Springs, Jonesboro and Pine Bluff increased by 1.0% compared to the previous month, while Fayetteville, Fort Smith and Texarkana saw somewhat smaller increases.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Since the employment trough of April 2020, Hot Springs has shown the strongest bounce-back:  Up 17.0% in seven months.  Hot Springs had previously experienced the largest percentage decline in employment over the February-April contraction.  The smallest percentage recovery has been in Pine Bluff, which experienced a relatively small downturn early in the year but has seen sluggish recovery in the period since April.  Relative to pre-pandemic employment levels, Jonesboro had recovered by September and continues to tally net gains for the year.  The other metro areas in Arkansas remain below levels of February 2020, with net losses ranging from -0.8% in Texarkana to -4.5% in Little Rock.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment rates in Arkansas’ metro areas were generally little changed from the previous month.  In Fayetteville and Pine Bluff, unemployment rates were unchanged.  In Fort Smith, Hot Springs, Jonesboro, and Little Rock, unemployment rates declined by 0.1%.  Larger changes were registered for Memphis and Texarkana: The unemployment rate in Memphis declined three full percentage points, from 9.9% to 6.9%.  In Texarkana the unemployment rate increased by 0.9 percentage points, from 6.2% to 7.1%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

At the county level, unemployment rates were unchanged or higher in 66 counties in November, with unemployment rate declines in only nine counties.  The largest decline was in Pulaski County, down 0.3 percentage points from 7.7% to 7.4%.  As indicated in the interactive map below, counties with higher unemployment rates tend to be clustered in the eastern and southern portions of the state, with lower rates more prevalent in west and central Arkansas.  Larger metropolitan areas also continue to show somewhat higher unemployment rates than the more rural areas.  Madison County continues to register the lowest unemployment rate in the state at 3.9%, while Chicot County has the highest rate: 10.9%.

 

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Arkansas GDP During the Pandemic

State-level GDP data for the third quarter were released over the holidays (December 23).  The latest data showed that Arkansas Real GDP increased 7.1% in Q3 (an annual rate of 31.8%).  The nationwide growth rate was 7.5% (annual rate 33.4%).  The change in real GDP was positive for all 50 states plus the District of Columbia, with annual growth rates ranging from 52.2% in Nevada to 19.2% in D.C. It was generally the case that states that had experienced the largest downturns in the first half of the year rebounded to have higher growth rates in the third quarter.

As illustrated in the figure below, U.S. GDP declined by 10.1% between 2019:Q4 and 2020:Q2, while Arkansas GDP declined by 8.8%.  After the third quarter increases, U.S. GDP remained 3.4% lower than its level at the end of 2019.  Arkansas GDP was down only 2.3%.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The table below decomposes the changes during 2020 by major industry sector for Arkansas and the U.S.  In many of the most pandemic-sensitive sectors (e.g. Accommodation and Food Services) the declines over the first half of 2020 were smaller in Arkansas than the U.S. average.  For most sectors, the third-quarter recovery brings Arkansas closer to pre-pandemic production levels.  In some sectors, Arkansas GDP growth has moved into positive territory, with total Q3 output above levels of 2019:Q4.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Although the third-quarter GDP increases represent significant recovery from the economic downturn in the first half of 2020, it is likely that many service-related sectors will remain remain below total capacity for some time as efforts to control the COVID-19 pandemic continue.

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Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – November 2020

The pace of recovery in Arkansas labor markets showed clear signs of slowing in November, following similar patterns as the national data released two weeks ago.  Today’s news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Arkansas’ unemployment rate was unchanged from October, remaining at 6.2%.  The national unemployment rate declined only 0.2% for the month, falling from 6.9% to 6.7%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The underlying components of the unemployment rate showed small changes from October to November:  The number of employed was reported down 2,746 and the number of unemployed declined by 179–essentially unchanged.   The labor force, the sum of employed and unemployed, declined by 2,925.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Volatility in the labor force data reflects the difficulty of measuring rapidly changing employment conditions that have prevailed in 2020.  From the early stages of the pandemic through the summer recovery months, labor flows were particularly fluid, with the data suggesting that people were moving between employment and unemployment, as well as in and out of the labor force, at an unprecedented pace. As that pace has slowed, the data are suggesting that labor force participation is down by about 35,000 from a year earlier.  In terms of labor force participation rates, Arkansas has fallen to 56.3%, down 1.9 percentage points from February.  Over the same period, the net change in the U.S. participation rate has also been -1.9 percentage points.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4,500 in November (seasonally adjusted).  Job growth continues, but at a slower pace than during the initial stages of economic rebound.  After seven months of recovery from the April 2020 employment trough, Arkansas payroll employment remains 3.2% below its pre-pandemic level in February.  Nationwide, the net change from February through November was 6.5%.  As of November, U.S. employment has now recovered over half of the jobs lost from February through April, while the recovery in Arkansas has amounted to nearly two-thirds of the initial job-losses.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Breaking down the employment data by sector, we see that ongoing employment declines are concentrated in sectors directly affected by economic shut-downs and social-distancing limitations,  Education and Health Services, Leisure and Hospitality Services and Other Services account for the bulk of net job losses during 2020.  Government employment is also down, primarily associated with lower employment by public schools, colleges and universities.  Manufacturing employment has also been slow to recover but showed a relatively strong increase in November.  The list of sectors in which employment has fully recovered to pre-February levels include Construction, Wholesale and Retail Trade, Transportation & Utilities, and Professional & Business Services.

The concentration of ongoing job losses in the service sectors suggests a simple explanation for the recent slow-down in employment recovery both in Arkansas and nationwide:  Many service-related businesses continue to operate well below capacity, due to both formal and informal restrictions to encourage social distancing. As long as those sectors are operating under such constraints, the extent of full recovery is limited.  Businesses have been extraordinarily innovative during the pandemic, but there so far we can proceed to getting the economy back to “normal” until we are able to put the COVID-19 pandemic, and efforts to control it, behind us.

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Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE. 

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Arkansas Personal Income – 2020:Q3

New data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released today shows that Arkansas personal income declined by 5.5% in the third quarter — corresponding to a -20.3% annual rate.  Nationwide, personal income was down 2.6% (a 10.0% annual rate).  The BEA reported that income was lower in all 50 states, with annualized percent declines ranging from -0.6% in Georgia to -29.9% in West Virginia.

The third quarter declines were driven primarily by decreases in personal current transfer receipts as the impact of CARES Act relief payments declined from their second-quarter surge.  Revised data showed that transfer receipts in Arkansas rose 57.0% in the second quarter and declined by 24.6% in the third.  The national averages showed a second-quarter increase of 75.4% and a third-quarter decline of 23.0%.

After the second-quarter increases and third quarter declines, Arkansas personal income was up 4.1% relative to Q1, with the corresponding U.S. total up 5.1%.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Net of transfer payments, Arkansas personal income categories generally showed encouraging increases in the third quarter. All major components of earnings increased in Q3, with Proprietors’ Income rebounding sharply from its decline in the second quarter.  Dividends, Interest, and Rent was down slightly.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

In addition to the increases in third-quarter earnings, today’s report contained some relatively large revisions to data from the second quarter.  Most encouraging, wage and salary disbursements were revised 4.0% higher than originally reported.  The surge in transfer receipts in the second quarter was also revised higher for Arkansas.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Net of transfers, the third quarter data show significant recovery from the sharp declines in the second-quarter. Compared to the first quarter of the year, Arkansas Personal Income Less Transfer Payments was down by only 0.3% in Q3.  Nationwide, Income less transfers was down 1.0%.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

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Metro and County Employment and Unemployment – October 2020

The latest data on local area employment and unemployment show that most regions of the state continue to recover from the economic downturn we experienced in March and April.  October unemployment rates were down in all of Arkansas’ metro areas (except Memphis) and were down in all 75 counties.  Payroll employment expanded in five of eight metro areas in October—in some cases significantly.  Regional differences remain, however, as both the severity of the downturn and the strength of recovery differ among local economies.

As shown in the table below, payroll employment expanded by over a full percentage point in Northwest Arkansas, Hot Springs, and Memphis. Employment also increased in Fort Smith and Jonesboro.  Little Rock was unchanged, while Pine Bluff and Texarkana were down compared to the previous month.  Nevertheless, since the employment trough of April 2020, all eight metro areas have seen employment gains, ranging from 2% in Pine Bluff to nearly 16% in Hot Springs.  In part, these differing rates of recovery reflect the magnitude of the initial downturn:  Hot Springs saw the largest job losses in the state from February to April, while Pine Bluff experienced the smallest percentage decline.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Compared to the cyclical peak month of February 2020, Jonesboro has recovered to the point of having a net gain in employment, while net declines remain in the other metro areas.  Little Rock, Memphis, and Pine Bluff continue to show net job losses of 4% or greater, with the others down between one and three percent.

Unemployment rates were down in seven of eight metro areas, the exception being Memphis, where the rate increased from 9.3% to 9.9%. In a month when the state and national unemployment rates declined by one full percentage point, we saw declines of one percent or more in Hot Springs, Jonesboro, Little Rock and Pine Bluff.  Texarkana and Fayetteville were down 0.9 percentage points.  The change in Fort Smith was smaller, but still indicated improvement.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Estimates

At the county level, unemployment rates declined all 75 of Arkansas’ counties  in October.  Because the county data are not seasonally adjusted, a portion of these gains can be attributed to seasonal factors.  Nevertheless, the declines in all 75 counties exceeded the typical seasonal movement (at the statewide level) of approximately -0.25 percentage points.  The interactive map below summarizes October employment rates and shows the changes for each county from September to October.

A general pattern is evident:  Unemployment rates have fallen below 5% in many counties in the north and west of the state, while the highest unemployment rates are in the south and east.  Madison and Newton Counties had the lowest rates in the state (3.9%), while the highest rates were in Chicot County (10.9%), Ashley County (9.2%), and Phillips County (8.8%).

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Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – October 2020

The latest unemployment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Arkansas Department of Workforce Services showed a full percentage point decline in Arkansas’ unemployment rate, down from 7.2% (revised) in September to 6.2% in October.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The decline in October resumes a downward trend that appeared to have stalled in August and September. However, weekly data on unemployment insurance claims suggest that although the trend toward lower unemployment had slowed in late summer, it has continued.  In that respect, the leveling-off in the official unemployment rate in August and September appears to be the anomalous reading.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

The October decline in the unemployment rate was driven by a sharp decline in the number of unemployed, down more than 14,000 to 83,203.  The number of employed increased by 1,747.  Summing these two changes, the labor force was down by 12,370 for the month.  Statistics on the labor force have been unusually volatile this year, as labor market “churning” has complicated efforts to measure unemployment at any given point in time.  Overall, the labor force is down by approximately 36,000 since February, but has come back from a February-to-July decline of more than 62,000.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

In terms of labor force participation rates, Arkansas stood at 56.5% in October, down 1.7 percentage points since February.  Over the same period, the U.S. participation rate declined by 2.6% to 61.7%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 9,700 in October (seasonally adjusted), an increase of 0.8%.  Compared to February, Arkansas payroll employment was down by 45,700, or 3.6%.  The net change for the U.S. over the same period was a decline of 6.6%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

As shown in the table below, the October employment increases were distributed across most sectors.  There were declines in Government, Wholesale Trade, Mining & Logging, and Information Services, but every other major sector saw employment gains.  Professional and Business Services was up by 2,800 jobs, Leisure and Hospitality Services was up 1,700, and Construction employment was up by 1,000.  Employment in Retail Trade continues to expand:  it was up 3,700 in October, bringing the cumulative change since February to a total net increase of 7,200 jobs.  Employment in Construction and Transportation & Utilities have also moved into positive growth territory since February.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

After declining by 118,800 in March and April, payroll employment has gained back about 73,000 jobs, with a net cumulative decline between February and September of 45,700.

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Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE. 

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2020 Forecast Conference – November 12, 2020

Little Rock Regional Economic Briefing – 2020

Thanks to all the participants and presenters at this years Regional Economic Briefing on November 12.

Use the links below to download copies of the presentation slides.

 


Little Rock Regional Economic Briefing – 2020

The Arkansas Economic Development Institute, based at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, and the Little Rock Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis will host the Little Rock Regional Economic Briefing Thursday, November 12.

The event will take place virtually this year, from 8-10 a.m. on November 12. The event is free and open to the public, but registration is required at this online link.

Economists will speak on the economic conditions and outlook for the region and the nation. The briefing will be of particular interest to business leaders, academics, and community development practitioners.

The speakers include:

  • Kevin Kliesen, St. Louis Fed research officer and business economist, who will discuss national economic conditions
  • Carlos Silva, Arkansas Economic Development Institute regional economist, who will give the Little Rock metro report
  • Michael Pakko, Arkansas Economic Development Institute chief economist and state economic forecaster, who will talk about the Arkansas economic outlook

“The Little Rock Regional Economic Briefing will include perspectives on the national, state, and regional economies,” Pakko said. “In these very unusual times, the pandemic and efforts to curtail its spread have a profound influence on the economic outlook, and we’ll be focusing in particular on how our economy has fared thus far, and what that portends for the forecast.”

The program also includes a welcome from Robert Hopkins, senior vice president and regional executive of the Little Rock Branch, and a question-and-answer session following the presentations.

For more information, contact Julie Kerr at julie.a.kerr@stls.frb.org or 501-324-8296.

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Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – September 2020

After recovering through the months of May, June and July, continued improvement Arkansas labor markets has slowed.  The unemployment rate ticked slightly lower in September, declining 0.1 percentage point to 7.3%.  However, there has been no statistically significant change in Arkansas’ unemployment rate since July.  The U.S. unemployment rate which peaked at 14.7% in April, fell by half a percentage point in September, declining from 8.4% to 7.9%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

As shown in the breakdown below, the number of unemployed has hovered just below 100,000 for three months now, falling slightly from 99,517 in August to 97,191 in September. The number of employed also declined in September (-5,391), but not nearly enough to offset the gain from the previous month (+31,032, revised).  Similarly, the labor force contracted slightly in September after surging upward in August.  The labor force data have been particularly volatile, suggesting large movements in and out of the labor force.  Moreover, problems defining labor force status in the presence of temporary furloughs and layoffs has complicated the interpretation of the labor force participation data.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
Without seasonal adjustment, nonfarm payroll employment increased by 13,200 in September. However, the increase is largely attributable to seasonal increases in educational services in both the private and public sectors.  After seasonal adjustment, private education services were down 800 jobs and total government employment was down by 3,700.  The seasonally adjusted declines indicate that back-to-school employment increases are smaller this year than typically the case for September.

Seasonally adjusted, nonfarm payrolls declined 1,700.  As shown in the third column of the table below, increases in Manufacturing, Education and Health Services, and Leisure and Hospitality Services were noteworthy for continuing the recovery from COVID-related shutdowns earlier in the year.  The increase in manufacturing employment is a welcome improvement from a sector that had remained near its April trough.  The gain in Education and Health Services as entirely attributable to higher employment in Health Care and Social Assistance.  Gains in Leisure and Hospitality show ongoing improvement, but with employment remaining more than 17,000 below the pre-COVID peak.

The cumulative changes shown in the fourth column of the table show that the Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, and Transportation & Utilities sectors have all moved into positive territory, showing net gains relative to February.  While several sectors continue to operate below capacity and with employment sharply down from earlier in the year, other sectors are showing increasing employment.  In the case of the trade and transportation sectors, it appears that efforts to address logistics and supply-chain problems during the economic shut-down has generated job growth during the period of recovery.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

The trends in payroll employment for Arkansas and the U.S. remain favorable, despite the one-month decline in the Arkansas data for September.  The pace of employment growth nationwide has slowed in recent months, as has growth in Arkansas.  There is more month-to-month variability in state-level employment growth, so it is important to bear in mind that one month of data rarely indicates a change in trend; September’s modest down-tick doesn’t necessarily indicate a stalling of job growth, but rather a slowing of the pace of economic recovery.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Overall, the trends continue to show improvement in both state and national labor markets.  But the pace of the improvement has slowed somewhat as we move into the fall months.

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Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE. 

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Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – August 2020

The establishment survey for August showed payroll employment higher in all eight metro areas covering parts of Arkansas.  The household survey, on the other hand, showed higher unemployment for six of the eight.

First, the payroll data:  Statewide nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.2% in August, outpacing U.S. growth of 1.0%.  Among Arkansas metro areas, all experienced an expansion of employment but only Texarkana matched the statewide growth rate.  Employment in Hot Springs and Fort Smith roughly matched the U.S. growth rate, while each of the other metro areas lagged behind.  The implication is that employment in non-metropolitan areas contributed to the statewide growth rate.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

The monthly employment increases represented continuing recovery from the pandemic recession, but employment in most areas of the state continue to be lower than year-ago levels.  The exception is Jonesboro, where employment was 0.3% above August 2019.  Outside Jonesboro, year-over-year growth rates ranged from -5.9% in Memphis to -1.5% in Texarkana.  Looking more directly at the short-term fluctuations surrounding the February-to-April employment downturn, all eight metro areas have rebounded considerably, but all eight continue to show net employment declines since February.

Unemployment Rates:
The statewide employment report had shown an increase in the Arkansas unemployment rate in August.  The metro area report shows that unemployment in six of the state’s eight metro areas also ticked higher.  The exceptions were Fort Smith and Texarkana, each of which declined from July to August.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

As with the payroll data, the unemployment statistics seem to suggest that non-metro parts of the state showed relative improvement in August.  As documented in the county map below, unemployment rates declined in 62 of Arkansas’ 75 counties, were unchanged in 3, and increased in only 10 counties across the state.  Counties that showed increases included Garland, Jefferson, Lincoln, Madison, Pulaski, and Washington — each of which is part of a metropolitan area.

The data are subject to revision, but the information for August suggests that Arkansas metro areas are recovering slowly, but are still being held back by the limited resurgence of service sector employment.  Nonmetropolitan areas, being less dependent on service-providing industries, appear to be experiencing somewhat more robust recoveries — at least in some parts of the state.

The Arkansas Delta region seems to be an exception.  The map below shows the cumulative changes in unemployment by county from February through April.  In addition to the metropolitan counties that show the largest sustained increases, counties in the eastern and southern areas of the state show relatively large increases in unemployment as well. The unemployment rate in Mississippi County is up 4.8 percentage points, Lafayette County is up 4.0, Union and Desha Counties both up 3.9, and St. Francis and Chicot Counties are both up 3.8 percentage points.

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Arkansas Personal Income – 2020:Q2

Today’s report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that total personal income increased by 7.0% in Arkansas in the second quarter of 2020 – an annualized growth rate of 31.3%. Arkansas’ growth rate was slightly slower than the 34.2% pace recorded for the United States and ranked #31 among the 50 states.  Growth rates ranged from a low of 15.8% in Tennessee to 76.3% in Massachusetts.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The increases in personal income were driven entirely by Personal Current Transfer Receipts, with non-transfer income declining in all 50 states.  In Arkansas, non-transfer income declined by 6.5% (an annualized rate of 23.4%), while transfer receipts increased by 51% (a 419% annual rate).  Arkansas declines in wages and salaries (and supplements) were smaller than the U.S. average, while Proprietors’ Income and Dividends, Interest & Rent contracted more sharply than in the national statistics.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The increase in total personal income was somewhat less than projected in recent forecasts, due to a larger decline in non-transfer income and a smaller increase in transfer payments than had been expected.

Looking at a breakdown of earnings declines by industry, we see that Arkansas endured smaller declines than the U.S. in several industries that were directly affected by COVID-19 shutdowns, including Retail Trade, Health Care, Accommodation and Food Service, as well as Art, Entertainment & Recreation.  The most significant sector of weakness for Arkansas was Farm Income, which fell to below zero for the quarter.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Revisions to Earlier Data
The statistics released this morning also included revised statistics for 2013:Q1 through 2020:Q1.  The revisions were generally small, shifting Arkansas income levels slightly higher for 2015 through 2017, and slightly lower during 2019.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The effect of revisions on income growth rates was generally positive for 2015 and 2016, but resulted in slower reported growth for more recent periods.  Through the first quarter of 2020, four-quarter growth was previously reported to be 3.4%.  After revisions it is estimated to have been 3.2%.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

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Special Reports: Impact of Covid-19 on the Arkansas Economy

Arkansas Consumer Spending During the Pandemic
Sales tax data for Arkansas indicate robust consumer spending in the midst of the pandemic. In this article, we break down available data by county and by sector to seek greater insight into the phenomenon.
Read more…

Forecast Update (July)
“Incoming data have continued to show a more rapid recovery from the COVID-19 shutdowns than previously expected.”
Read more…

Forecast Update (June)
Information since May has suggested that Arkansas has not been as severely impacted as other parts of the country, and that the sharp declines in national employment have abated.
Read more…

Forecast Update (May)
“The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to be more rapid and more severe than initially expected… In this updated report we present new projections for the Arkansas economy.”
Read more…

Forecast Update (April)
“In this note we update that forecast with new estimates of the magnitude of the downturn. We also update and extend our previous guidance on how the forecast is likely to impact sales tax receipts of local governments.”
Read more …

Implications for Local Government Sales Tax Collections
“In this note, we focus on consumer spending and the outlook for sales tax collections by county and municipal governments.” Read more…

Arkansas Economic Outlook (March)
“It appears that a dramatic downturn in economic activity over the remainder of 2020 is unavoidable for the nation and for Arkansas.”  Read more…

 

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