End-of-year statistics for employment and unemployment in in metropolitan areas were released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Unemployment rates (seasonally adjusted*) declined slightly in most of Arkansas’ MSAs in December, but rose in Fort Smith.  As shown in the chart below,  The lower unemployment rates we saw during the summer were transitory — evidently associated with of temporary Census employment.  Rates generally ended the year slightly higher than they were in January, rising by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points in most of the state’s metro areas.  Fort Smith showed an end-of-year increase that took its unemployment rate to 8.6%, up by 0.7  percentage points from January.   Only Texarkana’s unemployment rate declined over the course of the year, falling slightly to 7.3 percent in December. 

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*Seasonally adjusted data for MSA Payroll Employment are available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  However, data for unemployment rates are not.  In order to facilitate comparisons over different months of the year, unemployment rates are seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement using the conventional Census-X12 ARIMA procedure.

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest information (for October) on employment and unemployment in Metropolitan Statical Areas (MSAs) around the nation.  The report suggests that labor markets in Arkansas’ metro areas are slowly improving.

Household Suvey:
Unemployment in three of Arkansas’ MSAs  fell in October (seasonally adjusted data*).  Rates in both Hot Springs and Texarkana were down 0.1% while Pine Bluff fell 0.3%.   Rates in Fort Smith and Little Rock were unchanged.  Only two MSAs saw higher unemployment:  Rates in Fayetteville and Jonesboro both rose by 0.2%.

It might appear that unemployment rates around the state are following a rising trend.  But if we take a step back and look at the pattern that rates have followed over the course of 2010 it looks more like a mini-double dip employment recession.

In actuality, the patterns in the data are related to the hiring and subsequent layoffs of temporary Census workers.   Arkansas’ MSA’s have followed the same pattern seen in statewide and national data:  rates falling from around April until July, then rising until September or October, leaving unemployment rates about where they were in April.  This matches the timing of the surge in the employment of temporary Census workers.  Netting out this effect, unemployment has been approximately flat for most of 2010.

Payroll Survey:
Changes in nonfarm payroll employment provide encouraging signs:  October employment growth was zero or positive in each of the state’s MSAs.  This is not surprising, given the state-level data showing that Arkansas’ employment growth was the fastest in the nation in October.  Since the end of 2009, payroll growth has been positive in three of the seven MSAs.  Relative to a last October, growth has been positive in four MSAs.

In terms of recovering the jobs that were lost during the recession, the figure below shows the cumulative change in employment since the start of the recession (December 2007).  Employment in the MSA’s of Hot Springs, Jonesboro, Texarkana — and more recently, Pine Bluff — have begun to increase from their low points earlier in year.  In fact, Jonesboro has experienced positive net employment growth since the start of the recession.  The other metro areas have a long way to go.

Although the effects of temporary Census workers have distorted the statistics, unemployment rates appears to be stabilizing.  And payroll employment figures are showing signs of real improvement (particularly in some areas of the state).  Employment statistics are lagging indicators (especially the unemployment rate), so even though we are nearly 1 – 1/2  years into the recovery it is likely to take considerably more time before the employment situation returns to a healthy state.

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*Seasonally adjusted data for MSA Payroll Employment are available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  However, data for unemployment rates are not.  In order to facilitate comparisons over different months of the year, unemployment rates are seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement using the conventional Census-X12 ARIMA procedure.

Earlier this week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest report on employment and unemployment in the nations Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).  The data indicate that it has been a slow summer for job growth in Arkansas’ MSAs.

Unemployment data for August (not seasonally adjusted) showed that the unemployment rate ticked up by one-tenth of a percent in three of the state’s MSAs, and was unchanged in the other four.  However, August is typically a month in which the unemployment rate experiences a seasonal decline.  Adjusting the data for this recurring seasonal pattern, the data show that unemployment rose substantially in each of the state’s seven metro areas.  For four of the seven metro areas, the increase in seasonally-adjusted unemployment in August follows an uptick in July as well.

Payroll employment growth in Arkansas MSAs also showed weakness in August.  From July to August, employment increased in Fort Smith and Hot Springs, but declined in each of the other metro areas.   For the first eight months of the year, only Hot Springs and Texarkana have shown positive job growth.   Compared to the previous year, employment is lower in five of the seven MSAs, with positive year-over-year changes recorded for Jonesboro and Texarkana. 

Since the onset of the recession in December 2007, cumulative job losses vary considerably across metro areas.  Employment in Jonesboro has recovered to about the same level as at the end of 2007.  At the other end of the spectrum, Fort Smith has seen job losses totalling 8.2 percent.

Metro area unemployment rates for March 2010 were released last week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services.  Over the first three months of 2010, seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates rose in all of Arkansas’ Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).  The Pine Bluff MSA continued to register the highest unemployment rate in the state: 9.9% in March–slightly above the national average of 9.7%.  All of the state’s other metro areas were below the national average, with the lowest rate being 6.6% in the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers MSA.

Nonfarm payroll employment was up sharply in the statewide data for March (see previous post).  For the state’s metro areas, employment was unchanged or up slightly in six of the seven MSAs.  Only Texarkana showed a decline for the month. However, Texarkana had shown increases earlier in the year and it is the only MSA in Arkansas with positive employment growth, on net, over the most recent three months (from December).

Compared to March of last year, employment in March 2010 was down in all of Arkansas metro areas.  In percentage terms, Jonesboro showed the smallest decline:  down by only -0.6 percent.  Having shown a sharp decline in the first three months of 2010, employment in Hot Springs is down by 3.2 percent from a year earlier.