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Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – August 2012

New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show unemployment rates trending downward across most of the U.S. — and Arkansas is no exception.  The statistics for August show unemployment lower than the previous year in 325 of the nation’s 372 metro areas.  As shown in the table below, unemployment rate declines in Arkansas ranged from -0.6% in Fort Smith to -1.4% in Pine Bluff.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

A quick comparison of August with the July unemployment rates would seem to suggest dramatic monthly declines; however, these changes primarily reflect recurring seasonal patterns — and the conventional unemployment measures for metro areas are not seasonally adjusted.  In this case, an important factor the start of the school year, when many teachers and students return to work or leave the labor force.  As a point of comparison, the headline unemployment rate statewide was unchanged in August at 7.3% (seasonally adjusted) while the not-seasonally-adjusted data showed a monthly decline of 0.9%.

Looking instead at the BLS’s smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates (below) we get a more accurate view of month-to-month changes.  From July to August, the seasonally adjusted figures show declines in Fayetteville, Hot Springs, Little Rock, Memphis and Pine Bluff.  The rate was unchanged in Jonesboro and Texarkana, while it increased in Fort Smith.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

The following chart shows the trends in seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates over the past three years.  Rates have generally been in decline since autumn of 2011, although there has been some recent increases in Memphis and Fort Smith.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Data
Information from the survey of employers showed a wide range of employment changes among the state’s metro areas.  Texarkana showed a sharp monthly decline, with smaller contractions in Fort Smith, Hot Springs and Little Rock.  Employment was up in Memphis, Fayetteville, Pine Bluff , and especially Jonesboro.  Compared to a year earlier, employment was higher in six of the eight metro areas.  Relative to employment levels at the start of the recession, Arkansas now has three metro areas that have shown positive net job growth.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

 

 

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – July 2012

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported this morning that unemployment rates were lower in July than a year earlier in 305 of the nation’s 372 metropolitan areas.  All of Arkansas’ metro areas were included in that total.  Statewide unemployment was down 0.7% from July 2011 (not seasonally adjusted).  As shown in the table below, metro area unemployment rates have fallen between 0.3% and 1.1% over the past year.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The not-seasonally-adjusted figures showed some sharp increases from the previous month, but these changes were driven by the typical summer upturn associated with students and teachers being off for the summer.  The BLS’s smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates (below) show more modest increases.  Unemployment rates were unchanged in Fayetteville, Little Rock, and Texarkana.  They were up by 0.1% in Hot Springs, Jonesboro, and Pine Bluff.  Fort Smith and Memphis both saw somewhat larger increases (+0.3%).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Changes in payroll employment in the state’s metro areas covered a rather wide range.  Compared to the previous month, employment was down in Jonesboro (-0.6%), Fort Smith (-0.6%), Pine Bluff (-0.8%) and Fayetteville (-1.0%).   Employment increased in the state’s other metro areas, with changes ranging from +0.1% in Memphis to +1.0% in Texarkana.  Over the past 12 months, employment in Texarkana has increased by over 7%.  According to this morning’s report from the BLS,  this was the third-largest year-over-year percentage increase in the country.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment hit a low point in February 2010 (for both Arkansas and the U.S.).  However, employment in three of the state’s metro areas has shown cumulative net declines since then.  Compared to the month before the recession started (December 2007), employment is still down in most metro areas.  Employment in Jonesboro is slightly above its pre-recession level (+0.4%) and it is considerably higher in Texarkana (4.9%).

Metro Area Employment & Unemployment – June 2012

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that unemployment rates in June were lower than a year earlier in 328 of the nation’s 372 metropolitan areas.  In Arkansas, unemployment rates were down sharply in every metro area.  The smallest decline was for Little Rock, down 0.9%.  The unemployment rate in Pine Bluff was down 1.7% from June 2011.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Typically, month-to-month changes in the not-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate data are dominated by predictable seasonal movements.  But the May-June seasonal effect is rather small, so the smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates for metro area unemployment rates this month are very close to the unadjusted data.  As shown in the table below, unemployment rates declined in 6 of the 8 metro areas.  Unemployment in Fort Smith was unchanged, and the rate ticked up one-tenth in Memphis.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment

Statewide data released on July 20 showed a monthly decline for Arkansas, down 4,300 jobs (-0.4%), but today’s data showed employment increase in all 8 of the state’s metro areas.  Employment in the Little Rock metro area was essentially unchanged, but for some MSAs the increases were substantial:  Jonesboro, Texarkana, and Pine Bluff all saw monthly increases exceeding one full percentage point.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

The apparent disconnect between metro-area employment gains and statewide employment losses in June has several possible explanations.  It may be the case that most of the job losses took place in the non-metro area of the state, offsetting the metro-area gains.  Another possibility is that metro area job increases are taking place largely in the non-Arkansas counties within those areas, with counties on the Arkansas side of the border lagging.   Then again, it could just be a statistical anomaly due to sampling error or some other data discrepancy.  Unless the divergence between metro and state employment trends persists, however, it should not be a cause for great concern.

With the June payroll numbers now available, we can take a step back and consider the the longer-run trends using quarterly-average data.  The chart below shows quarterly payroll employment for Arkansas metro areas, using the peak of the previous economic expansion (2007:Q4) as a common starting point.  Texarkana, Jonesboro and Fayetteville now have higher levels of employment than before the recession.  Little Rock remains about 3% below the previous cyclical peak, with the other metro areas in the state lagging further behind.  Fort Smith, where employment has experienced a cumulative decline of about 13%, saw a welcome upturn in employment during the second quarter.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Metro Area Unemployment Rates – May 2012

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that unemployment rates in May were lower than a year earlier in 331 of the nation’s 372 metropolitan areas.  All of the metro areas in Arkansas fell into this category.  Year-over-year changes ranged from -0.4 percentage points in Northwest Arkansas to    -1.1 percent in Memphis.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Local Area Unemployment Statistics)

The reported unemployment rates were all up sharply from the previous month, but this largely reflects regular seasonal patterns.  According to the smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates released this afternoon, unemployment rates in May were largely unchanged from April.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates)

 Payroll Employment

Today’s report from the BLS also noted that nonfarm payroll employment in May was up from the previous year in 266 metro areas.  Four of the state’s metro areas were included in this total.  The largest year-over-year percentage increase was recorded in Texarkana (+4.4%).  At the other extreme, payroll employment in Fort Smith was down 4.4%.  From April to May, payrolls were up in only three metro areas:  Little Rock (+0.7%), Pine Bluff (+0.8%) and Texarkana (+1.7%).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Employment Statistics)

 

Metro Area Unemployment Rates – April 2012

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that unemployment rates in Arkansas metro areas were down sharply in April compared to a year earlier.  Year-over-year changes ranged from -0.5 percentage points in Little Rock to -1.4 percent in Memphis.  Broadly speaking, the metro areas with the highest unemployment rates a year ago have seen the largest declines over the past 12 months.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
Smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates for April showed monthly unemployment-rate declines in every metro area except Hot Springs, where the rate was unchanged.  Unemployment was down by 0.2% in  Fort Smith, Pine Bluff, and Texarkana.  Declines of 0.1% were recorded for Fayetteville, Jonesboro, Little Rock, and Memphis.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

As shown in the chart below, the latest data continue to follow a clear trend of improving employment conditions across the state.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Metro Area Unemployment Rates – March 2012

Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that unemployment rates in March were down from the previous year in 342 of the nation’s 372 metropolitan areas.  All of Arkansas’ metro areas were included in this total.  Year-over-year changes ranged from -0.1 percentage point in Little Rock to -1.1 percent in Memphis.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Local Area Unemployment Estimates)

Smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates showed that the most recent changes in unemployment (from February to March) also indicated improved labor market conditions in the state’s metro areas.  The Hot Springs unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.6%, Little Rock was down 0.1 percentage points to 6.6%, and all the state’s other metro areas showed declines of  0.2 percentage points.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates)

 

Metro Area Employment – 2012:Q1

Last week’s employment report for Arkansas showed a surprising decline in statewide payroll employment.  After two months of growth totalling 6,700 jobs (+0.6%), nonfarm payrolls declined by 1,900 (-0.2%) in March (seasonally adjusted).  Data for the state’s metropolitan areas shows that only Fayetteville and Jonesboro showed positive growth for the month.  Employment was unchanged in Hot Springs and Pine Bluff.  Declines were registered in Memphis, Little Rock, Texarkana and Fort Smith.  Compared to the previous year, employment is up in most of Arkansas’ MSAs — the exceptions being Little Rock (-0.3%) and Fort Smith (-6.3%).  Compared to the start of the recession in December 2007, both Jonesboro and Texarkana are now in positive territory, with Fayetteville close to the break-even point.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

As shown in the chart below, employment patterns among Arkansas metro areas have shown some dinstinct individual patterns.  All of the state’s MSAs showed sharp declines during the depth of the recession in late-2008 through 2009.  Signs of recovery were generally evident in early 2010, but employment growth rates have diverged considerably since then.  Many parts of the state showed weak or negative employment growth during 2011.  Jonesboro and Texarkana continued to experience positive growth — albeit at slower rates.  Hot Springs saw a surge in job growth during 2011, but the increase appears to have been temporary.  Other areas of the state continue to recover slowly.  The clear exception to the pattern of slow, uneven recovery is Fort Smith:  After suffering an 8% decline in employment in 2008 and 2009, recovery in early 2010 was only partial and temporary.  More recent job losses in the Fort Smith MSA have continued to mount.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Metro Area Unemployment

The smoothed seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates for metro areas have been updated.  The data for February show monthly declines in Fayetteville, Memphis, Pine Bluff, and Texarkana.  The rate was unchanged for Fort Smith and Little Rock, and moved higher in Hot Springs and Jonesboro.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Although changes in unemployment rates were mixed for the month, rates are down sharply from their peak levels of September/October 2011.  The declines have been particularly steep in Fayetteville, Memphis, Pine Bluff and Texarkana.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Metro Area Employment – February 2012

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported this morning that payroll employment in February had increased from the previous year in most of the nation’s metro areas:  “267 metropolitan areas reported over-the-year increases in nonfarm payroll employment, 98 reported decreases, and 7 had no change.”  Here in Arkansas, metro employment was up in only four metro areas (Fayetteville, Little Rock, Memphis, and Texarkana) and it was lower in the other four (Fort Smith, Hot Springs, Jonesboro, and Pine Bluff).

Seasonally adjusted data show that from January to February, employment declined in most of Arkansas’ metro areas.  Hot Springs, in particular, showed a substantial monthly decline.  In contrast, employment was up sharply in Texarkana and also rose in Fayetteville and Memphis.  Since the national and statewide employment trough of February 2010, employment growth rates around the state have diverged remarkably.  Texarkana, Fayetteville, and Memphis have all out-performed the statewide average.  In Hot Springs, rapid employment growth during 2011 has reversed, and is now lower than its level in February 2010.  In Pine Bluff and Fort Smith, employment has continued to decline.  In fact, employment in Fort Smith is now 12.8% lower than at the start of the recession in December 2007.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The BLS report also noted that unemployment rates in February were down from the previous year in 344 of the nation’s 372 metro areas.  Four of the eight metro areas in Arkansas were included on this list.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The smoothed seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates for Arkansas MSAs will be available later today.

Metro Area Unemployment Rates – Seasonally Adjusted

The  smoothed seasonally adjusted unemployment rate estimates have been updated by the BLS.  As described in a previous post,  the smoothed seasonally adjusted (SSA) estimates are processed using an algorithm that incorporates a long-run trend smoothing procedure.  Hence, the estimates show less month-to-month variability than data that produced using only seasonal adjustment techniques.

The table below shows that unemployment rates declined in all of Arkansas MSAs in January.  The largest monthly declines (-0.4 percentage points) were registered for Fayetteville, Memphis, and Pine Bluff. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

As shown in the figure below, the month-over-month declines in unemployment continue a trend that emerged in the final months of 2011.  The recent declines have largely reversed the run-up in unemployment rates that we saw during the summer months.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics