The Bureau of Labor Statistics released new data on metro area unemployment and employment yesterday.  The report noted that unemployment rates in November were down compared to the previous year in 341 of the 372 metropolitan areas in the nation.  The eight metro areas that contain portions of Arkansas were all included in that total.  Not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates declined by more than a full percentage in each of the state’s metro areas over the past 12 months, with the largest decline being a 2.7 percent drop in Pine Bluff.

In the recent statewide unemployment report, Arkansas’ unemployment rate dropped by three-tenths of a percent in November (seasonally adjusted).  Comparable figures for the state’s metro areas do not uniformly reflect this dramatic decline.  From October to November, data from the Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates show declines of only one-tenth in Fort Smith, Hot Springs, Jonesboro and Memphis.  Texarkana was down two-tenths and Pine Bluff was down three-tenths.  Unemployment rates in Fayetteville and Little Rock were unchanged.  Although the magnitude of unemployment rate declines were smaller for most metro areas than the statewide average, the underlying components were all generally encouraging.  The number of unemployed was down in all eight metro areas, and the number of employed was higher in all except Memphis.

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 0.5% statewide in November, but the gains were not reflected evenly across the state’s metro areas.  In a fact, payroll employment was down in both Hot Springs, Memphis and Pine Bluff.  Employment in Texarkana was unchanged and Little Rock saw only a slight increase.  Compared to a year ago, employment has declined in Fort Smith and Pine Bluff, but has increased in the state’s other metro areas.  Only Jonesboro has surpassed the nationwide growth rate of 2.0%.  In fact, at 2.9%, Jonesboro is the only metro area in the state to be growing faster than the statewide average of 1.5%.  Compared to pre-recession levels of seven years go, employment has increased in Fayetteville and Jonesboro, but is still lagging behind in most other metro areas.

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released new information on unemployment and employment in metropolitan areas.  The BLS News Release reported that unemployment rates were down from a year earlier in 322 of the nations 372 metropolitan areas.  All eight of Arkansas’ metro areas were included in that total, with the year-over-year declines ranging from 0.9% in Fayetteville to 1.8% in Pine Bluff.

The not-seasonally adjusted data show that the unemployment fell rather sharply from July to August, but that is a typical seasonal effect.  (For example, over the past 10 years, the not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Arkansas has, on average fallen by 0.57% between July and August, while the seasonally adjusted average was +0.03% for the same monthly change.)  Data from the Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates show that there was little change in metro-area unemployment rates after taking account of the usual seasonal swing:  Unemployment rates declined by one-tenth of a percentage point in Fort Smith and Pine Bluff, increased by one-tenth in Memphis, and were unchanged in the remaining metro areas.

Over the past several months, we have noted a sharp decline in labor force participation in Arkansas.  In the report on statewide unemployment in August, we saw a slowdown of that trend.  As shown in the figure below, most of the state’s metro areas have shown a similar downward trend in the size of their labor forces since March 2014.  The weakening of the downward trend is also evident in most of the state’s metro areas (with the notable exception of Memphis).

There is no clear explanation of why we have seen such a sharp downward trend since spring.   One pattern that appears to generally hold in the figure below is the relationship between cumulative labor force contractions and the more recent weakening of the downward trend.  In particular, the metro areas that have experienced the largest cumulative reductions in labor force participation during 2013 and 2014 continue to trend downward.   The weakening of the downward trend is more apparent in metro areas that have only recently been subject to a declining labor force.  In fact, the labor force in Jonesboro — where cumulative increases over the past two years have been the largest — edged slightly higher in August.

Payroll Employment
Statewide payroll employment growth was essentially zero in August, with metropolitan areas showing a wide range of changes.  From July to August, employment was down in four metro areas (Little Rock, Memphis, Pine Bluff and Jonesboro) and was up in the remaining four (Fayetteville, Texarkana, Fort Smith and Hot Springs).   Over the past year, only Pine Bluff has seen a net reduction in payroll employment (-1.4%), with increases in other metro areas ranging from +0.5% in Fort Smith to +1.9% in Jonesboro.  Compared to pre-recession employment levels, only Jonesboro and Fayetteville have seen net increases.

New statistics on employment and unemployment in Arkansas’ metro areas shows continuing declines in unemployment rates.  However, concerns about statewide labor force participation are also apparent in the metro area data.   As shown in the table below, not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates have fallen sharply over the past 12 months.  The declines range from -1.2% in Fayetteville, Little Rock and Texarkana to -1.9% in Pine Bluff.  The most recent monthly changes show slight upticks.  However, the change in unemployment from May to June is subject to predictable seasonal increases.  After adjusting for recurring seasonal effects, the seasonally adjusted data show that the unemployment rate declined in June for every metro area except Memphis.

In the statewide data for June, we noted that the unemployment rate was declining against a backdrop of a declining labor force — particularly over the past three months.  As shown in the following chart, the declining labor force from March through June is distinctive for most of the state’s metro areas as well.  Over the past three months, we see sharp labor force participation falling in every metro area except Memphis.  In some cases (Little Rock, Fort Smith, and Pine Bluff), the downward trend has been ongoing throughout 2014.  Relative to January 2013, the only metro area that has experienced a net increase in its labor force is Jonesboro.

Payroll Data
Information from the survey of employers shows one-month declines in employment for five of Arkansas’ metro areas.  Compared to a year ago, however, only Fort Smith has seen a decrease.  Although net employment has been increasing since February 2010, the cumulative percentage increase for the state has only been 3.1%, and employment in Fort Smith, Pine Bluff and Texarkana has declined, on net, over that period.  Compared to pre-recession employment levels, only Fayetteville and Jonesboro have moved into positive territory.