The latest report on metropolitan area unemployment rates came out yesterday, showing unemployment rates down in all of Arkansas’ metro areas. The not-seasonally adjusted data showed that on a year-over-year basis, unemployment rates were down by amounts ranging from 0.5% in Fort Smith to 1.6% in Memphis. The report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics cited a figure that 365 of the 387 metropolitan areas across the country experienced unemployment rate declines since August 2014.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
As is typically the case, the change in unemployment rates from July to August is complicated by seasonal factors. Not seasonally adjusted data indicate sharp declines of more than half a percentage point in all eight metro areas; however, that is typical of July-to-August changes. Yet even after seasonal adjustment, rates were down around the state. Three metro areas matched the 0.2% decline previously reported for the statewide unemployment rate (Fayetteville, Jonesboro and Texarkana). Fort Smith and Pine Bluff saw declines of 0.1%, while Little Rock and Memphis saw even larger drops.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates
Payroll Employment Changes in nonfarm payroll employment were mixed. Employment was down by 0.5% in Jonesboro and Memphis, and down by 0.2% in Texarkana*. Employment in Pine Bluff was unchanged, and was up in the remaining metro areas. Gains were particularly large in Little Rock (+0.7%) and Hot Springs (+0.8%). Employment is now higher than pre-recession levels in four of the eight metro areas (Jonesboro, Fayetteville, Little Rock and Hot Springs).
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
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*Note: Payroll data for Texarkana (which now include Little River County) are not presently being published by the BLS on a seasonally adjusted basis. Payroll employment figures for Texarkana refer to data that have been seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement.
Yesterday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released new statistics on GDP for the nation’s metropolitan areas. The BEA reported that the average growth rate for U.S. metro areas in 2014 was 2.3%. Among metro areas that cover parts of Arkansas, only Fayetteville (at 3.1%) exceeded that average. In fact, five of the state’s eight metro areas showed negative growth in 2014. Pine Bluff experienced the largest contraction, -3.0%.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Over the five year period since the trough of the 2008-2009 recession, Arkansas’ metro areas have shown a wide range of growth rates. From 2009-2014, Fayetteville’s GDP expanded by 25.8% and Hot Springs’ by 20.8%. At the other extreme, GDP in Pine Bluff has declined by 8.5%.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
The newly-released statistics are preliminary and incomplete, and are therefore subject to future revision. As shown in the table, as well as in the figure below, revisions to GDP growth rates can be substantial. For example, 2013 GDP growth for Hot Springs was revised upward from 1.9% to 4.5%.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
The BEA report also included information on per capita GDP, which might be considered a better indicator of economic performance (because it accounts for differences in population growth). Statewide, GDP per capita in 2014 was $37,334 (in 2009 inflation-adjusted dollars), amounting to 75.5% of the U.S. figure of $49,469. Little Rock had the highest per capita GDP, but at $48,773, still fell slightly below the national level. Pine Bluff had the lowest per capita GDP, $29,238 or 59.1% of the U.S. average.
New data on unemployment rates in Arkansas metro areas show continuing downward trends. From July 2014 through July 2015, the state’s unemployment rate declined by 0.8%, with metro area changes ranging from -0.4% (Fort Smith) to -1.2% (Memphis and Texarkana).
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
Seasonally adjusted data indicate month-to-month declines in unemployment in 5 metro areas, with rates unchanged in Hot Springs and Texarkana. The unemployment rate in Memphis ticked up by one-tenth of a percentage point.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates
As shown in the figure below, unemployment rates rose slightly in the early months of the year, peaking in April or May. With the exception of Memphis, rates have resumed their decline over the past two to three months. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for Fayetteville fell below 4.0% for the first time since April 2008. At the other extreme, unemployment in Pine Bluff has yet to fall below 7.5%.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates
Payroll Employment Data on nonfarm payroll employment (seasonally adjusted) show mixed changes on a month-to-month basis. Metro areas showing employment losses in July included Fayetteville, Fort Smith, Hot Springs, Memphis, and Pine Bluff. Increases were recorded for Jonesboro, Little Rock, and Texarkana. Compared to a year ago, employment is up for six of eight metro areas covering parts of Arkansas, with only Fort Smith and Pine Bluff registering year-over-year declines. The news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that Pine Bluff had the largest year-over-year percentage decline in the nation. A rather sharp monthly drop in Hot Springs dropped the employment total for that metro area back below pre-recession levels, after having briefly moved into positive territory in June.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics
New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that unemployment rates in Arkansas metro areas are all down from a year ago, but the pace of decline has slowed. On a year-over-year basis, the state-wide not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has fallen by 0.6%. In six of the eight metro areas that include parts of Arkansas, rates have fallen by more than that.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
On a month-to-month basis, seasonally-adjusted metropolitan area estimates show the unemployment declining in all eight metro areas in June. In six of the eight metro areas, the June decline was larger than the 0.1% drop in the statewide data. Unemployment rates are now at 5% or lower in four of the state’s metro areas.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates
As shown in the figure below, the seasonally adjusted estimates rose somewhat in the earlier part of this year, particularly in metro areas with relatively high unemployment rates. Hence, unemployment rates in those areas are unchanged or up slightly compared to their low points earlier this year. In the four metro areas with the lowest unemployment rates, however, the trend continues downward. Where unemployment rates are at or below 5%, we should not expect significant further reductions.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates
Payroll Employment Nonfarm payroll employment rose in June for six of the eight metro areas, but was down in Fort Smith and Pine Bluff. Those two metro areas are also the only two that have experienced declines over the past 12 months as well. According to the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Pine Bluff retains the dubious distinction of having the largest percentage decline in employment nationwide. On a more positive note, a 1.3% employment increase in Hot Springs made that metro area the fourth in the state to break the barrier of having higher employment now than before the 2008-09 recession.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics
The figure below illustrates the wide range of payroll employment growth since the onset of the recession (smoothed, by taking quarterly averages of the monthly figures). In Jonesboro, employment is nearly 13% higher than it was in the fourth quarter of 2007. At the other extreme, employment in Pine Bluff has fallen by more than 16% over the same period.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics
New data on metro area employment and unemployment came out today, including newly revised unemployment figures from the smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates. On a not seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rates in Arkansas metro areas ranged from a high of 7.7% in Pine Bluff to a low of 4.3% in Fayetteville. All eight of the metro areas that include parts of Arkansas have experienced declines in unemployment over the most recent 12-month period. The largest year-over-year decline was in Texarkana — down 1.2%.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
Since the data revisions earlier this year, smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates of metro area unemployment had not been available. The process of updating seasonal factors is now complete, so we new have a new set of estimates to compare month-to-month changes in unemployment rates around the state. As shown in the table below, changes in unemployment rates from April to May were mixed. Unemployment rates were up in Memphis and Pine Bluff, and were unchanged in Fort Smith and Jonesboro. In the other four metro areas, unemployment rates moved one-tenth of a point lower. Statewide, the unemployment rate was unchanged in May.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates.
The revisions to seasonally adjusted unemployment rates come from three sources. First are the changes due to the “new generation of time-series models” that were updated to include updated estimate inputs and population controls. Second are changes in metro area definitions that affected Fort Smith, Memphis and Texarkana (see Metro Area Unemployment and Employment – January 2015). Third are the updates to the seasonal factors themselves. The net results of these updates are illustrated in the set of figures below:
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates
For most of the metro areas in Arkansas, the revisions had the effect of raising the estimates unemployment rates for the period from 2010 through 2012. The revised statistics also show a smoother downward trend in the unemployment data for late-2013 through 2014. So far in 2015, the newly-released statistics show leveling-off of unemployment rates in most metro areas, but a move toward higher rates in some areas, particularly Fort Smith and Pine Bluff.
Payroll Employment Data from the payroll survey show that nonfarm payroll employment changes were mixed in May. Monthly changes in employment ranged from +1.6% in Hot Springs to -1.2% in Pine Bluff. Compared to a year ago, Pine Bluff is the only metro area to have experienced a decline in payrolls. In fact, the Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment Summary noted that Pine Bluff had the dubious distinction of having “the largest over-the-year percentage decrease in employment” in the nation (according to the not seasonally adjusted data). Compared to employment levels before the 2008-09 recession, Little Rock has moved into positive territory, joining Fayetteville and Jonesboro. The other five metro areas in the state continue to show net declines in employment since December 2007.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that unemployment rates in all of Arkansas’ metro areas were down from a year earlier. Unemployment rates have been falling for well over a year now, and the pace of decline is slowing somewhat. Consequently, the some of the year-over-year declines in April are smaller than they have been in recent months. From April 2014 to April 2015, changes in unemployment rates have ranged from -0.2% in Fort Smith to -1.1% in Texarkana. Statewide, the unemployment rate declined 0.4% over the same period.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
The data are now fully revised to reflect new estimation methodologies and data sources, as well as changes in the definitions of metropolitan areas. However, smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates have not yet been updated, so meaningful month-to-month comparisons are not possible.
Payroll Employment Recent changes in payroll employment have been mixed. From March to April, both Fort Smith and Jonesboro saw rather sharp increases — up 1.0% and 1.1%, respectively (seasonally adjusted). Smaller gains were reported for Fayetteville, Little Rock and Memphis. The other metro areas experienced month-to-month declines. Over the past 12 months, employment in Pine Bluff has continued to decline and has been basically unchanged in Texarkana.* Year-over-year net job growth has been positive elsewhere. Nevertheless, total employment remains below pre-recession levels in 5 of the 80metro areas that include parts of Arkansas.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)ye
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Note: Payroll data for Texarkana (which now include Little River County) are not presently being published by the BLS on a seasonally adjusted basis. Payroll employment figures for Texarkana refer to data that have been seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency released new data on home prices this morning. According to the FHFA’s “Expanded Data Indexes,” house prices in Arkansas declined slightly in the first quarter of 2015, falling by 0.4% from the fourth quarter of 2014. Compared to a year ago, house prices in Arkansas were up 1.7%. Nationwide, house prices were up 1.4% for the quarter, and were 5.8% higher than a year before. Since hitting a trough in the second quarter of 2011, prices have increased by 11.5% in Arkansas and 22.2% nationwide. The slower rate of appreciation in Arkansas reflects the fact that house prices declined be less then the rest of the nation during the price collapse of 2007-2011.
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
The Expanded data indexes are compiled using data from actual sales prices gathered from FannieMae, FreddieMac, FHA and County Property Recorder sources. For metropolitan areas, FHFA publishes a set of “All-Transactions Indexes” that are based on actual sales prices along with appraisal values from refinancing. As shown in the chart and table below, home prices in the various metro areas of Arkansas have displayed widely differing patterns. Fayetteville and Memphis experienced price declines from 2007 to 2011 that were consistent with nationwide averages, but prices in both of those metro areas have shown significant recovery since then. At the other extreme, prices in Texarkana, Jonesboro, Fort Smith and Little Rock showed little downward movement during the nationwide decline, and have experienced net positive appreciation since 2007.
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Seasonal adjustment by the Institute for Economic Advancement.
In the first quarter of 2015, home prices were higher in 5 of 8 metro areas, with declines in Fayetteville, Pine Bluff, and Texarkana. Pine Bluff was the only metro area to have experienced a decline compared to the first quarter of 2014. Over the 5 years since 2010:Q1, house prices have fallen 6.4% in Pine Bluff and 0.7% in Hot Springs, but are up in the state’s other metro areas. The highest rate of appreciation has been in Jonesboro, where prices are 8.2% higher than they were five 5 years go.
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Seasonal adjustment by the Institute for Economic Advancement.
The latest report on metro area employment and unemployment showed that Arkansas metro areas continue to show dramatic year-over-year declines in unemployment rates. As shown in the table below, unemployment rates have fallen by more than a full percentage point over the past year in Jonesboro, Memphis, Pine Bluff, and Texarkana. The smallest decline in unemployment — in the Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway metropolitan area — was 0.7%.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
The data are now fully revised to reflect new estimation methodologies and data sources, as well as changes in the definitions of metropolitan areas. However, smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates have not yet been updated, so meaningful month-to-month comparisons are not possible.
Payroll Employment The previously-reported statewide payroll data showed a sharp decline for Arkansas in March. Although the drop-off appears to be largely weather-related, payroll employment declines were also prevalent across the state’s metro areas. Employment declined in 6 of the 8 metro areas that include parts of Arkansas, was unchanged in Texarkana, and was up only slightly in Little Rock. Compared to the previous year, employment has increased in 6 metro areas but is lower in Fort Smith and Pine Bluff.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
The chart below illustrates the divergent patterns of employment growth across the state’s metro areas. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2007 (before the onset of the 2008-09 recession), employment is up nearly 12% in Jonesboro and 9.5% in Northwest Arkansas. In the Little Rock metro area, employment has now slightly exceeded it’s pre-recession level. Hot Springs, Memphis and Fort Smith have shown employment gains over the past three years, but remain below pre-recession peaks. Employment has continued to follow a downward trend in both Pine Bluff and Texarkana.* Payroll employment in Pine Bluff is down 13.2% compared to the fourth quarter of 2007.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
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*Note: Payroll data for Texarkana (which now include Little River County) are not presently being published by the BLS on a seasonally adjusted basis. Payroll employment figures for Texarkana refer to data that have been seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement.
New data on metro area employment and unemployment came out this morning. As we reported last month, the metro area data are being revised significantly, taking into account new methodology and source information, as well as new definitions for many of the metro areas themselves. Final revisions will not come out until April 21, so the current data remain “provisional.”
The news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that “unemployment rates were lower in February than a year earlier in 366 of the 387 metropolitan areas.” All eight of the metro areas that include parts of Arkansas were included in that total. As shown in the table below, the unemployment rate has fallen by over a full percentage point in every metro area except Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers. The largest decline has taken place in Pine Bluff — down from 9.6 a year ago to 7.9 in February 2015.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
The calculation of smoothed seasonally-adjusted metro area unemployment rates has been discontinued until after the final data revisions are complete, so we have no official information on seasonally-adjusted rates. Lacking that information, it is not possible to make meaningful month-to-month comparisons.
Payroll Data Nonfarm payroll employment was up by 0.4% in Arkansas for the month of February, but the gains were not evenly dispersed across the state. Four metro areas saw increases, while four saw decreases. Compared to the previous February, however, seven of the state’s eight metro areas have seen increases in payroll employment, with only Pine Bluff continuing to see a downward drift. Compared to the national employment trough of February 2010, only Pine Bluff and Texarkana have experienced net decreases. Three metro areas now have higher levels of employment than before the 2008-09 recession, Fayetteville, Jonesboro, and Little Rock.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
(Note: With the redefinition of the Texarkana MSA, seasonal adjustment factors have been deemed unreliable for now and no seasonally-adjusted data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data for Texarkana in the table above have been seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement.)
New data on metro area employment and unemployment came out today. The metro data were subject to the same data revisions that we’ve seen for the state-level data already. The household employment and unemployment data were estimated using the “new generation of time-series models,” and updated to incorporate updated estimation inputs and population controls, and the payroll data were revised to reflect the annual benchmarking process. Just to make it more complicated, today’s report incorporated new geographic delineations for metropolitan statistical areas. Three metro areas in Arkansas were affected by the new definitions: Fort Smith, Memphis, and Texarkana (see endnote*). Moreover, the revision process is not over: The not seasonally adjusted data from 2010 forward will be comprehensively revised again on April 21, and smoothed seasonally-adjusted metropolitan area estimates will not be available until after that revision.
Today’s report began with the summary statement that unemployment rates in January were lower than a year earlier in 339 of the nation’s 387 metro areas. All eight of the metro areas that cover parts of Arkansas were included in this total. As shown in the table below, unemployment rates in Arkansas have fallen by varying magnitudes, ranging from -0.2 percentage points in Memphis to 1.4 percentage points in Pine Bluff. As of January 2015. five metro areas had unemployment rates lower than the statewide average of 6.5% (not seasonally adjusted).
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
The revisions to metro area unemployment rates were generally not substantial. As shown in the next table, revisions to the most recent month previously reported (December 2014) were quite minor, even for the metro areas with new geographic delineations. The revisions had somewhat larger impacts on previous months’ observations, affecting the December 2013-December 2014 year-over-year changes. Generally speaking, unemployment rates at the end of 2013 were revised downward, reducing the magnitude of unemployment declines measured over the course of 2014.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
Payroll Employment The data for nonfarm payroll employment incorporate new metro area delineations, as well as the annual comprehensive benchmark revisions. The latest data and growth rates are summarized in the following table:
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES). Note: Data for Texarkana are not presently available on a seasonally adjusted basis and have been seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement.
From December 2014 to January 2015, employment dropped by 1.5% in Pine Bluff, and by 0.1% in Fayetteville and Fort Smith. Other metro areas around the state saw month-over-month gains. Compared to the previous January, employment in all metro areas except Pine Bluff have seen increases, with the largest gains in Jonesboro and Fayetteville. Three metro areas are now showing higher levels of payroll employment than before the recession.
To get a sense of how the payroll data revisions affected recent employment growth, the following set of figures compares the revised data to previously published statistics. In several metro areas, we see the same pattern as in the statewide data revisions; namely, a downward revision to employment growth in late 2013 and a stronger pick-up of growth in 2014. The data for Northwest Arkansas show a substantial upward revision over the course of 2014 with the cumulative impact measuring nearly 8,000 additional jobs (+3.6%) counted by December 2014. At the other extreme, the data for Pine Bluff were revised downward, with the cumulative impact amounting to nearly 1,000 fewer jobs (-2.6%) than previously estimated at the end of last year. Data for Fort Smith, Memphis and Pine Bluff show level shifts associated with the revised metro area delineations.*
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
*Note: Fort Smith, Memphis, and Texarkana were subject to revised geographic boundaries (OMB Bulletin No. 13-01). Fort Smith was redefined to exclude Franklin County, AR; Memphis was revised to include Benton County, MS; and Texarkana’s delineation was expanded to include Little River County, AR.
