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Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – November 2012

New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Workforce Services show the Arkansas unemployment rate fell two-tenths of a percent to 7.0% in November.  The number of unemployed fell by 2,359 to 95,935.  Both the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed were at their lowest levels since January of 2009.  However, household survey also showed that the number of employed persons dropped by 6,305.  Consequently, the labor force contracted by 8,664.  November’s decline represents the sixth consecutive monthly decline in the labor force, and this drop accounts for at least some of the fall in the unemployment rate.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment
Seasonal factors become particularly relevant this time of year, as colder weather and holiday shopping affect employment patterns in a number of sectors.  The not-seasonally-adjusted statistics for payroll employment showed a decline of 1,100 jobs in November, while the seasonally adjusted statistics showed an increase of 2,000.  For example, construction is one sector where seasonal considerations play an obvious role:  without any seasonal adjustment, the number of construction jobs declined by 1,500.  But the seasonally adjusted figures showed a a slight increase.  Other sectors that experienced largely seasonal declines in November included  Leisure & Hospitality and Professional & Business Services.   On the other hand, employment in the Retail Trade sector was up by 4,000 for the month (not seasonally adjusted), but much of that increase was a typical seasonal phenomenon (seasonally adjusted retail employment was up only 800).   Seasonal movements in employment are certainly of interest in their own right, but seasonally-adjusted figures facilitate comparisons aver time that are better-suited to evaluate business cycle conditions — in this case, progress toward recovering jobs that were lost in the 2008-09 recession.

The table below shows seasonally-adjusted changes in employment over the past month and the past year, as well as comparisons with the previous employment peak (Dec 2007) and trough (Feb 2010).  Month-to-month changes were positive in the good-producing sectors, but were down in many of the service-providing sectors.  Compared to November of the previous year, employment was up in most sectors, but lower in Information, Financial, and Professional & Business services.  Construction employment was also down sharply from the previous year.  Overall, the most recent published data show that employment has increased by 22,100 since the trough of February 2010, but is still down 35,700 from the start of the recession.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

As discussed in recent posts (here, for example) the payroll data for 2011 and early 2012 are expected to be revised upward significantly when the benchmark revisions are released next March.  The expected revisions raise the path of payroll employment significantly — particularly in the fourth quarter of 2011.  For the third and fourth quarters of 2012, the revisions are expected to increase measured employment  by over 13,000 jobs.  As shown in the table below, these revisions paint a much rosier picture of progress toward recovery from the 2008-09 recession.  After the expected revisions, November’s employment figures show a recovery of nearly 36,000 jobs since February of 2010, and a shortfall of only 22,000 jobs compared to the month immediately preceding the recession.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, are available here:  Table – Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Metro Area Employment & Unemployment – October 2012

New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that October unemployment rates were down from a year ago in 329 of the nation’s 372 metropolitan areas.  All of Arkansas’ metro areas are included in this total.  As shown in the table below, year-over-year changes in unemployment rates (not seasonally adjusted) ranged from -0.3% in Jonesboro to -1.3% in Texarkana.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Monthly changes in smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates for October were mixed.   Unemployment rates were unchanged in Fayetteville, Hot Springs, and Little Rock.  Rates ticked up by one tenth of a percent in Fort Smith, Jonesboro, and Memphis.  Pine Bluff’s unemployment rate rose by 0.2% and Texarkana’s declined by 0.2%.  Four of the eight metro areas had unemployment rates lower than the statewide average of 7.2%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Data
Nonfarm payroll employment in October was unchanged in Fort Smith, Hot Springs and Memphis.  The state’s other metro areas saw fairly sizable increases.  Employment was up 1.0% in Fayetteville and Texarkana, up 1.2% in Little Rock, up 1.4% in Pine Bluff and up 0.8% in Jonesboro.  Each of these increases exceeded the statewide growth rate for the month (0.4%).   Employment was higher than a year earlier in most of the state’s metro areas, with the exceptions of Fort Smith and Hot Springs.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Arkansas Employment & Unemployment – October 2012

New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Workforce Services show the Arkansas unemployment rate unchanged in October.  The reported uptick from 7.1% to 7.2% was essentially a rounding error (literally — taken to the next decimal place, the rate changed from 7.14% to 7.16%).  Since April of this year, the Arkansas unemployment rate has been stuck in a range of 7.1% to 7.3%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

When the unemployment rate was declining in late 2011 and early 2012, total household employment and labor force participation were rising.  Since April, however, both measures have been trending downward with the number of employed falling by 15,700.  Nevertheless, household employment remains over 10,000 higher than a year ago, and is up over 20,000 compared to July 2011.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment
Today’s report also showed that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4,400 in October (seasonally adjusted).  Employment in goods-producing sectors was down 1,500 jobs, but service-providing sectors added 5,900 jobs.  Increases were prominent in Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, and Leisure & Hospitality Services.  Sizable declines were registered in Professional & Business Services (primarily Administrative & Support Services) and in Construction.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The current data are showing a year-over-year increase in payroll employment of 13,800 jobs, with strong growth in Leisure & Hospitality Services and Education & Health Services.  As discussed in a recent post, however, the payroll data for 2011 and early 2012 are expected to be revised upward significantly.  As shown in the figure below, the expected revisions raise the path of payroll employment growth by over 13,000 by the third quarter of 2012.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

When the revisions are complete, the largest single-month change will be for October 2011–up by 19,000.  With recent monthly observations expected to be revised upward by only 13,600, the revised data will actually show a smaller year-over-year change in employment than currently-published data.  As shown in the table below, the revised data are expected to show a net employment gain of 8,400 from October 2011 through October 2012.  The expected revisions have more significant implications for longer-term measures of employment growth:  The data revisions suggest job growth of 33,800 since February 2010, compared to an increase of 20,200 using currently-published data (see table above).  With recent job gains and expected data revisions, Arkansas is now only 24,000 jobs short of re-attaining the state’s pre-recession level of employment (as of December 2007).

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, are available here:  Table – Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Metro Area Employment & Unemployment – September 2012

A new report on employment and unemployment in the nation’s metropolitan areas came out earlier this week.  It showed that unemployment rates were down from a year earlier in 345 of the 372 metro areas.  In Arkansas, the changes from a year ago ranged from -0.8% in Fort Smith to -1.7% in Pine Bluff.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

From August to September, the jobless rate fell 0.2% in Arkansas and 0.3% nationwide.  Arkansas’ metro areas generally saw declines for the month as well.  The smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates in the table below show lower rates in Hot Springs, Little Rock, Memphis, Pine Bluff, and Texarkana.  Unemployment rates were unchanged in Fayetteville and Jonesboro, but the rate ticked up 0.1% in Fort Smith.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment
September figures on payroll employment suggest a weaker job-market picture than the results of the household survey.   Statewide employment was down 0.2% for the month, with both Fayetteville and Little Rock showing similar declines.  Employment dropped even more sharply in Texarkana, Pine Bluff and especially Jonesboro.  Fort Smith and Hot Springs, on the other hand, saw welcome improvement in the monthly employment figures.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

Since employment hit a statewide trough in February 2010, most of the state’s metro areas have seen at least a partial recovery from the sharp declines of the recession.  Three metro areas — Fayetteville, Jonesboro, and Texarkana — actually have higher employment levels now than at the onset of the recession.   In contrast, Hot Springs, Pine Bluff, and Fort Smith have all seen continued declines in employment since the February 2010 turning-point.

The metro area employment data are subject to the same benchmark revision process as the statewide totals.  Based on estimates of how the revisions will affect Arkansas employment in general, the data for metro area job growth are likely to see upward revisions, particularly for late 2011 and the first part of 2012.  We’ll be presenting some estimates of those expected effects in an upcoming post here on the Arkansas Economist.

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – September 2012

The unemployment rate in Arkansas declined by 0.2% to 7.1% in September.  According to the news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 44 states plus D.C. saw unemployment declines, with only 6 states seeing increases.  Compared to September 2011, the unemployment rate in Arkansas is down by 1 full percentage point.  The U.S. rate is down 1.2% from a year earlier.  The number of unemployed Arkansans fell by 1,877 to 98,276 — the lowest level since February 2009.  The household survey also showed a decline in the number of unemployed (-759), so the Arkansas labor force also contracted for the month.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The payroll survey showed a net job loss for the month (seasonally adjusted).  Before seasonal adjustment, the number of payroll jobs was up by 12,300; however, that increase primarily reflects the seasonal return to work at public schools and universities.  After seasonal adjustment, the month-to-month change was -2,600.  Changes in industry employment were mixed.  Relatively large increases were recorded in Education and Health Services (-1,800), Financial Services (-600), and Professional and Business Services (-600).

Compared to a year earlier, employent was up by 10,800 with gains concentrated in several service-providing sectors.  Since the employment trough of February 2010, total payroll employment was up 15,700.  As of September, employment was still 42,000 lower than its pre-recession peak.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Recently released statistics — including those for September 2012 — have shown disappointing progress toward recovering the jobs lost during the recession.  However, when data revisions are eventually factored into the current employment statistics, the picture is likely to be far more encouraging.  (See, Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – June 2012).  More details and updates to the expected data revisions will be presented at the 2012 Arkansas Economic Forecast Conference.

 

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, are available here:  Table – Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – August 2012

New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show unemployment rates trending downward across most of the U.S. — and Arkansas is no exception.  The statistics for August show unemployment lower than the previous year in 325 of the nation’s 372 metro areas.  As shown in the table below, unemployment rate declines in Arkansas ranged from -0.6% in Fort Smith to -1.4% in Pine Bluff.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

A quick comparison of August with the July unemployment rates would seem to suggest dramatic monthly declines; however, these changes primarily reflect recurring seasonal patterns — and the conventional unemployment measures for metro areas are not seasonally adjusted.  In this case, an important factor the start of the school year, when many teachers and students return to work or leave the labor force.  As a point of comparison, the headline unemployment rate statewide was unchanged in August at 7.3% (seasonally adjusted) while the not-seasonally-adjusted data showed a monthly decline of 0.9%.

Looking instead at the BLS’s smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates (below) we get a more accurate view of month-to-month changes.  From July to August, the seasonally adjusted figures show declines in Fayetteville, Hot Springs, Little Rock, Memphis and Pine Bluff.  The rate was unchanged in Jonesboro and Texarkana, while it increased in Fort Smith.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

The following chart shows the trends in seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates over the past three years.  Rates have generally been in decline since autumn of 2011, although there has been some recent increases in Memphis and Fort Smith.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Data
Information from the survey of employers showed a wide range of employment changes among the state’s metro areas.  Texarkana showed a sharp monthly decline, with smaller contractions in Fort Smith, Hot Springs and Little Rock.  Employment was up in Memphis, Fayetteville, Pine Bluff , and especially Jonesboro.  Compared to a year earlier, employment was higher in six of the eight metro areas.  Relative to employment levels at the start of the recession, Arkansas now has three metro areas that have shown positive net job growth.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

 

 

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – August 2012

The unemployment rate in Arkansas was unchanged in August, remaining at 7.3%.  According to the news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 26 states saw increases in unemployment, 12 states saw decreases, and Arkansas was one of 12 states where the rate was unchanged.  Both employment and unemployment were down for the month, with the labor force declining by 3,600.  In percentage terms, this is nearly identical to the labor force contraction that was widely noted in the national unemployment statistics released two weeks ago.  From July 2011 through May of this year, Arkansas had been running counter to the national trend with labor force participation rising steadily.  August represents the third consecutive monthly decline.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment:

Information from the payroll survey was a bit more upbeat.  Total employment was up 2,600 for the month (seasonally adjusted).   Construction employment alone was up by 2,000, reversing the sharp decline that we saw in July.   Employment in several service sectors also increased, including Education & Health Services and Leisure & Hospitality Services.  Government employment was also higher, with net increases in Federal, State, and Local government hiring.

On the down side, employment contracted in both Wholesale and Retail trade sectors (-1,200 combined) and was also down in the Manufacturing sectors (-1,300).  Manufacturing job-losses were present in both durable and nondurable goods production.

On a year-over-year basis, payroll employment is up by around 10,000 jobs, but most of that increase took place in the final months of 2011.  Total employment in August was essentially unchanged from its level at the beginning of 2012.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES)

Overall, the data from August reinforce the view that the steadily improving conditions we saw in Arkansas labor markets during the second half of 2011 and the first part of this year have given way to relative stagnation.  The unemployment rate is stuck in the range of 7.1 to 7.3, and payroll employment is similarly showing no clear trend in recent months.

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, are available here:  Table – Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – July 2012

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported this morning that unemployment rates were lower in July than a year earlier in 305 of the nation’s 372 metropolitan areas.  All of Arkansas’ metro areas were included in that total.  Statewide unemployment was down 0.7% from July 2011 (not seasonally adjusted).  As shown in the table below, metro area unemployment rates have fallen between 0.3% and 1.1% over the past year.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The not-seasonally-adjusted figures showed some sharp increases from the previous month, but these changes were driven by the typical summer upturn associated with students and teachers being off for the summer.  The BLS’s smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates (below) show more modest increases.  Unemployment rates were unchanged in Fayetteville, Little Rock, and Texarkana.  They were up by 0.1% in Hot Springs, Jonesboro, and Pine Bluff.  Fort Smith and Memphis both saw somewhat larger increases (+0.3%).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Changes in payroll employment in the state’s metro areas covered a rather wide range.  Compared to the previous month, employment was down in Jonesboro (-0.6%), Fort Smith (-0.6%), Pine Bluff (-0.8%) and Fayetteville (-1.0%).   Employment increased in the state’s other metro areas, with changes ranging from +0.1% in Memphis to +1.0% in Texarkana.  Over the past 12 months, employment in Texarkana has increased by over 7%.  According to this morning’s report from the BLS,  this was the third-largest year-over-year percentage increase in the country.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment hit a low point in February 2010 (for both Arkansas and the U.S.).  However, employment in three of the state’s metro areas has shown cumulative net declines since then.  Compared to the month before the recession started (December 2007), employment is still down in most metro areas.  Employment in Jonesboro is slightly above its pre-recession level (+0.4%) and it is considerably higher in Texarkana (4.9%).

Metro Area Employment & Unemployment – June 2012

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that unemployment rates in June were lower than a year earlier in 328 of the nation’s 372 metropolitan areas.  In Arkansas, unemployment rates were down sharply in every metro area.  The smallest decline was for Little Rock, down 0.9%.  The unemployment rate in Pine Bluff was down 1.7% from June 2011.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Typically, month-to-month changes in the not-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate data are dominated by predictable seasonal movements.  But the May-June seasonal effect is rather small, so the smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates for metro area unemployment rates this month are very close to the unadjusted data.  As shown in the table below, unemployment rates declined in 6 of the 8 metro areas.  Unemployment in Fort Smith was unchanged, and the rate ticked up one-tenth in Memphis.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment

Statewide data released on July 20 showed a monthly decline for Arkansas, down 4,300 jobs (-0.4%), but today’s data showed employment increase in all 8 of the state’s metro areas.  Employment in the Little Rock metro area was essentially unchanged, but for some MSAs the increases were substantial:  Jonesboro, Texarkana, and Pine Bluff all saw monthly increases exceeding one full percentage point.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

The apparent disconnect between metro-area employment gains and statewide employment losses in June has several possible explanations.  It may be the case that most of the job losses took place in the non-metro area of the state, offsetting the metro-area gains.  Another possibility is that metro area job increases are taking place largely in the non-Arkansas counties within those areas, with counties on the Arkansas side of the border lagging.   Then again, it could just be a statistical anomaly due to sampling error or some other data discrepancy.  Unless the divergence between metro and state employment trends persists, however, it should not be a cause for great concern.

With the June payroll numbers now available, we can take a step back and consider the the longer-run trends using quarterly-average data.  The chart below shows quarterly payroll employment for Arkansas metro areas, using the peak of the previous economic expansion (2007:Q4) as a common starting point.  Texarkana, Jonesboro and Fayetteville now have higher levels of employment than before the recession.  Little Rock remains about 3% below the previous cyclical peak, with the other metro areas in the state lagging further behind.  Fort Smith, where employment has experienced a cumulative decline of about 13%, saw a welcome upturn in employment during the second quarter.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – June 2012

The unemployment rate in Arkansas ticked downward from 7.3% in May to 7.2% in June.  According to the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Arkansas was one of only 11 states to see a declining unemployment rate for the month.  Twenty-seven states recorded increases, and 12 states had no change.  The number of unemployed Arkansans declined by 1,884, falling to 99,185.  This was the first time Arkansas unemployment has fallen below 100,000 since February 2009.

The news from the household survey was not entirely positive, however.  The number of employed declined by 2,369 in June after showing essentially no change in the previous month.  As a result, the Arkansas labor force contracted by 4,253 — the first monthly downturn since July 2011.  Over the past several months, the combination of declining unemployment and an expanding labor force had distinguished Arkansas as one of the states where labor markets seemed to be outperforming the national average.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics – Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Data from the employer survey confirmed the weakness in employment growth for the month.  Nonfarm payrolls were down 4,300 from the previous month (seasonally adjusted).  Most sectors of the economy experienced job losses, with the notable exception of Education & Health Services, which saw an increase of 2,000 jobs.  Leisure & Hospitality Services, Financial Services, and Wholesale trade also showed slight increases.

On a year-over-year basis, the seasonally adjusted figures show a net increase of 6,900 jobs since June 2011, with gains concentrated in Education & Health Services, and Leisure & Hospitality Services.  Employment in goods-producing sectors continues to languish:  Construction employment was down 3,000 from the previous year, and Manufacturing employment was down by 1,800.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics – Current Employment Statistics (CES)

As recently reported here at the Arkansas Economist, the latest data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) seems to be indicating that the payroll employment data will eventually be revised upward.  Specifically, the QCEW data show must stronger job growth in the latter part of 2011 than current employment reports have indicated.  If we take these likely revisions into account, payroll employment from June 2011 through June 2012 has expanded by over 16,000 instead of the 6,900 implied by today’s report.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, are available here:  Table – Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.