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Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – August 2014

The Arkansas unemployment rate ticked up one-tenth of a percent in August to 6.3%.  This was the first increase in the state’s unemployment rate since July of 2013, when the rate increased from 7.6% to 7.7%.  The higher unemployment rate was driven by an increase in the  number of Arkansans unemployed and a decline in the number employed.  The shrinkage of the labor force continued, but it was the smallest decline since a sharp downturn began in April.  Compared to a year ago, the number of unemployed is down by over 20,000 and the unemployment rate is down by 1.4%.  However much of that decline is associated with the contracting labor force, which has fallen by 34,400 since March of this year.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in August (+100 jobs, seasonally adjusted).  Compared to August of 2013, payrolls have increased by 17,600; however, that increase took place almost entirely in the second half of 2013.  Since January of this year, payroll employment has changed little on net (+400).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Changes in the components of payroll employment were mixed.  Jobs in wholesale trade increased by 1,400 and jobs in Government were down 1,100 — primarily local government employment, which declined by 1,000.  Before seasonal adjustment, local government employment increased by 1,400 due primarily to the start of the school year.  The fact that seasonally-adjusted employment declined shows that the increase in school-related employment was smaller than would typically be expected.

Most sectors were up from a year earlier.  Year-over-year increases in Construction and Manufacturing are particularly encouraging, given the ongoing weakness in those two sectors.  Strong employment gains in Education & Health Services, and in Leisure & Hospitality services are also prominent in the breakdown of job growth.  Three sectors have shown small year-over-year declines:  Information Services, Financial Services, and Government.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found here:  Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Metro Area Unemployment and Employment – July 2014

Unemployment rates continued to trend downward in most of Arkansas’ metro areas in July.  However, as with the statewide data, unemployment rates are falling against a backdrop of sharp declines in the labor force.

The typical summer spike in unemployment continued to drive month-to-month changes in the not seasonally adjusted data.  Compared to the July 2013, however, unemployment rates were down by more than a full percentage point for all metro areas except Memphis.  The largest year-over-year declines were in Fort Smith, Jonesboro, and Pine Bluff, all showing declines of 1.7 percentage points.

Adjusting for the predictable summer effect, data from the Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates showed unemployment rates generally falling from June to July.  Rates declined by 0.1 percentage pointes in Fayetteville, Hot Springs and Little Rock; and were down 0.2 percentage points in Jonesboro and Pine Bluff.  Rates in Fort Smith and Texarkana held steady, while the rate in Memphis increased by 0.3 percentage points.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

In the context of the statewide unemployment report, we have noted that the number of employed and the civilian labor force has been declining sharply this summer.   Over the past four months, employment has fallen by 21,632 (-1.7%) and the labor force has contracted by 32,374 (-2.4%).  As shown in the table below, the declines are also reflected in most of the state’s metro areas.  The largest percentage declines are in Fort Smith and Hot Springs.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment
Monthly changes in payroll employment were mixed across Arkansas MSAs.  Employment declined in Pine Bluff, Texarkana and Fort Smith.   Small increases were reported in the state’s remaining metro areas.  The declines in Fort Smith and Pine Bluff represent continued weakness:  Employment is down from a year ago in both of those metro areas.  Compared to pre-recession employment levels, Fayetteville and Jonesboro remain the only metro areas in the state that have seen positive net job growth.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Metro Area Employment & Unemployment – June 2014

New statistics on employment and unemployment in Arkansas’ metro areas shows continuing declines in unemployment rates.  However, concerns about statewide labor force participation are also apparent in the metro area data.   As shown in the table below, not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates have fallen sharply over the past 12 months.  The declines range from -1.2% in Fayetteville, Little Rock and Texarkana to -1.9% in Pine Bluff.  The most recent monthly changes show slight upticks.  However, the change in unemployment from May to June is subject to predictable seasonal increases.  After adjusting for recurring seasonal effects, the seasonally adjusted data show that the unemployment rate declined in June for every metro area except Memphis.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

In the statewide data for June, we noted that the unemployment rate was declining against a backdrop of a declining labor force — particularly over the past three months.  As shown in the following chart, the declining labor force from March through June is distinctive for most of the state’s metro areas as well.  Over the past three months, we see sharp labor force participation falling in every metro area except Memphis.  In some cases (Little Rock, Fort Smith, and Pine Bluff), the downward trend has been ongoing throughout 2014.  Relative to January 2013, the only metro area that has experienced a net increase in its labor force is Jonesboro.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Data
Information from the survey of employers shows one-month declines in employment for five of Arkansas’ metro areas.  Compared to a year ago, however, only Fort Smith has seen a decrease.  Although net employment has been increasing since February 2010, the cumulative percentage increase for the state has only been 3.1%, and employment in Fort Smith, Pine Bluff and Texarkana has declined, on net, over that period.  Compared to pre-recession employment levels, only Fayetteville and Jonesboro have moved into positive territory.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – October 2013

Still catching up with the backlog from the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics last week released data for metro area employment and unemployment for both September and October.  Not surprisingly, unemployment rates rose in October as federal workers and contractors on furlough were classified as unemployed.  The smoothed seasonally-adjusted metro area estimates show that unemployment in October increased by 0.3% in Hot Springs and Pine Bluff, and by 0.2% in Little Rock.  Fort Smith was the only metro area in the state that did not see an unemployment rate increase in October.  In fact, Fort Smith’s rate was down by one-tenth from August.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Over the past year, unemployment rates in Arkansas have been on the rise.  Statewide, the rate has risen from 7.2% in October 2012 to 7.5% in October 2013.  Among the state’s metro areas, only Fort Smith has seen a net decline in unemployment over the same period, while Jonesboro was unchanged.  Unemployment rates have risen in all of the other seven metro areas, with notable increases in Pine Bluff, Texarkana, Memphis and Hot Springs.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment
Payroll employment figures (which should not have been affected by the government shutdown) showed some sizable gains in October.  Employment in October rose by more than 1% in both Pine Bluff and Fort Smith.  The increase in Fort Smith came on top of an increase in September as well.  The only metro areas that saw a decline in payrolls for October were Hot Springs and Memphis.  Compared to a year ago, employment was higher in all metro areas except Pine Bluff and Hot Springs.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

 

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – June 2013

Unemployment rates in Arkansas metro areas were basically unchanged from May to June (seasonally adjusted), but were higher than a year ago in four of the eight metro areas.  First, the not-seasonally adjusted figures shown in the table below reveal that unemployment rates have increased over the past 12 months in Fort Smith, Memphis, Pine Bluff, and Texarkana.  Rates were unchanged in Hot Springs and Jonesboro, and have fallen slightly in Fayetteville and Little Rock.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

The news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that 272 of the nation’s 372 metro areas had lower unemployment rates than a year earlier.  The four metro areas in Arkansas that had higher rates than a year earlier were among the 73 areas nationwide that have experienced increases.  Hot Springs and Jonesboro were among the 27 metro areas across the country where unemployment rates were the same as in June 2012.

To evaluate monthly changes, the second table shows smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates of metro area unemployment rates.  From May to June, rates were unchanged in all metro areas except Pine Bluff, which showed an uptick of 0.1 percentage points.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment
The payroll employment survey for June showed modest declines in Hot Springs and Pine Bluff, no change in Texarkana, and increases in the rest of the state’s metro areas.  The largest percentage increase for the month was in Fort Smith, up 0.8%.  Compared to June 2013, payroll employment has declined in Hot Springs, Pine Bluff and Texarkana, but is up in the remaining MSAs.  The monthly increase in Little Rock was large enough to push employment above its level in December 2007 — prior to the onset of the 2008-09 — for the first time since the recovery began.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Metro Area Unemployment and Employment – April 2013

Progress toward lower unemployment rates in Arkansas metro areas has ground to a halt.  Statistics for April show that unemployment rates were higher than a year earlier in all the state’s Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) except for Fayetteville.  The press release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Fayetteville was one of 276 MSAs around the nation that saw a year-over-year decline.  The state’s other MSAs were among the 78 metro areas that saw higher unemployment rates.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

The year-over-year comparisons refer to data that are not seasonally adjusted.  For meaningful month-to-month comparisons, the BLS publishes smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates.  As shown in the table below, these estimates show that the unemployment rate was steady in Fort Smith and Jonesboro, but ticked up in the seven other metro areas that include parts of Arkansas.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Underlying statistics from the household unemployment-rate data also showed a monthly uptick of employment in the state’s two largest metro areas, but reveal a downward trend in all of the state’s MSAs except for Fayetteville.  As illustrated in the figure below, the downturn in employment is particularly noticeable since the beginning of this year.  In Hot Springs and Texarkana, household employment is more than 2-1/2% lower than in January 2012.  The reason that unemployment rates haven’t risen in response to these employment declines is due to commensurate downward trends in labor force participation.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

In the statewide data, weak household employment data have contrasted with improving statistics from the payroll employment reports.  The same puzzle seems to exist in the MSA data.  As shown in the table below, nonfarm payroll employment increased in several of the state’s metro areas in April.  Compared to a year earlier, payroll employment was higher in Fayetteville, Hot Springs, Jonesboro, Little Rock, and Memphis.  Employment was flat in Fort Smith and down in Pine Bluff and Texarkana.  Pine Bluff remains the only metro area to have experienced continued contraction since the statewide employment trough of February 2010.  At the other extreme, both Fayetteville and Jonesboro have higher payroll employment in April 2013 than they did before the onset of the 21008-09 recession.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

The contrast between the household and payroll employment reports is a puzzle.  Typically, the payroll reports are considered to be more accurate, but are also subject to substantial revision.  For that reason, the renewed weakness in household employment is a concerning trend that we will continue to monitor closely.

 

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – Jan 2013 and Revisions

New and revised data for state employment and unemployment were released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Workforce Services.

For January, the household survey (a.k.a. Local Area Unemployment Statistics) featured an uptick in the unemployment rate to 7.2% (up from December’s 7.1% rate).  The number of people employed was down by 4,055 while the number employed increased by 760.  Consequently, the labor force declined by nearly 3,300.  The unemployment statistics were recently revised, reducing the magnitude of some recent fluctuations in Arkansas’ unemployment rate.  The revised data show that the rate peaked at 8.0% (instead of 8.2%), and the decline from July 2011 through April 2012 amounted to only 0.7% (instead of 1.0%).  The rate for December 2012 was unrevised at 7.1%.  The uptick in January’s unemployment rate mirrors the 0.1% increase that was previously reported for the U.S. average.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Survey:
The not-seasonally adjusted data for nonfarm payroll employment showed a decline of 20,800 jobs from December to January.  However, payroll employment is subject to particularly large seasonal effects in January:  the holiday break in public schools lowers employment in state and local government sectors, the end of the holiday shopping season reduces retail employment, and construction activity tends to scale back during the winter months.  After seasonal adjustment*, nonfarm payroll employment declined by only 1,700 for the month.

The employment contraction was smaller after seasonal adjustment, but it was still a decline.  Even considering seasonal patterns, construction employment was down 2,300.  Notable declines were also reported for Wholesale Trade, Transportation & Utilities, Professional & Business Services, and Government.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Benchmark Revisions:
The release of the January report was delayed by the annual “Benchmark Revision” process for payroll employment data.  The benchmarking involves a re-calibration of the monthly payroll employment series to be consistent with the more detailed Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).  We had expected the benchmarking process to result in a significant upward revision in the Arkansas payroll data, and it did.  The revisions to data for 2011 were particularly large.  For the period July through December 2011, the average monthly revision was +17,300.  This year, the BLS extended the period subject to benchmark revision to include the second and third quarters of 2012.  This resulted in lower job growth during 2012 than previously reported, but the increases in 2011 left the level of employment substantially higher than the earlier data had suggested.  In addition to the benchmark revision itself, the data were also subject to revised seasonal factors.

In total, the revisions amounted to an increase in payroll employment of 11,900 more than previously estimated for December 2012.     The newly revised data now show that Arkansas payroll employment expanded by 28,700 from February 2010 through January 2013 — a recovery of approximately one-half of the total job losses experienced during the employment contraction of December 2007 through February 2010 (see table above).

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, are available here:  Table – Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – November 2012

New data on employment and unemployment in Arkansas’ metro areas generally show improvements in labor market conditions around the state.  This morning’s data release from the Bureau of Labor Statisics showed that unemployment rates in November were lower than a year ago in all eight of the metro areas that include parts of Arkansas.  The year-over-year declines range from -0.3 percentage points in Jonesboro to -1.4 percentage points in Memphis.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Local Area Unemployment Statistics)

The not-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates were down from the previous month in all metro areas — quite sharply in some cases.  However, recurring seasonal patterns drove a large proportion of the changes.  Even after seasonal adjustment, however, unemployment rates were down for the month in most of Arkansas metro areas.  Data from the BLS smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates showed particularly sharp declines in unemployment for Memphis (-0.4%) and Texarkana (-0.3%).  The seasonally adjusted estimates showed that rates were unchanged in Jonesboro, Little Rock, and Pine Bluff.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates)

The chart below shows the path of seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates over the past three years.  Although some metro areas have seen temporary increases from month to month, the trend of lower rates has clearly prevailed since the latter part of 2011.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metroplitan Area Estimates)

Payroll Data
Data from the survey of employers told a similarly upbeat story.  From October to November, employment increased in all metro areas except Little Rock. Monthly increases exceeded a full percentage point in Hot Springs, Jonesboro, and Pine Bluff. Compared to the previous November, employment was higher in Fayetteville, Jonesboro, Little Rock, Pine Bluff and Texarkana. Only Fort Smith, Hot Springs, and Memphis showed lower level of employment than a year earlier. The currently-published data show that all of Arkansas’ metro areas except Fort Smith have shown positive growth since the statewide employment trough-date of February 2010.  But only Fayetteville, Jonesboro and Texarkana show employment above pre-recession levels.

Sourse: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Employment Statistics)

Expected Data Revisions
The employment data in the table above summarizes currently-published data.  When the payroll data are revised and benchmarked against more reliable data, however, the situation is likely to look quite different.  In previous posts (here for example), we have reported that recent employment data for the state of Arkansas is likely to be revised up by over 13,500 jobs (about 1.2%).  The data revisions for metropolitan areas are subject to greater uncertainty, but the underlying data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages suggest that some of the metro employment figures will be revised substantially.   As shown in the set of charts below, revisions will be particularly significant for Fort Smith, Jonesboro, and Texarkana.  In percentage terms, the largest revision (and arguably the most welcome) is expected to affect data for Fort Smith.  The new data will show that the currently published figures underestimate actual employment in Fort Smith by approximately 5,700 jobs, or 5.2%.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

With these expected revisions, the November employment situation looks somewhat different.  The most recent change (from October to November) will not be affected.  However, the year-over-year, change-since-trough and change-since-peak comparisons will be affected.  The table below summarizes the revised situation (compare to the table above of the same title).

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

Note that these are preliminary estimates calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement.  The official benchmark revisions will not be published until March 2013.

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – July 2012

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported this morning that unemployment rates were lower in July than a year earlier in 305 of the nation’s 372 metropolitan areas.  All of Arkansas’ metro areas were included in that total.  Statewide unemployment was down 0.7% from July 2011 (not seasonally adjusted).  As shown in the table below, metro area unemployment rates have fallen between 0.3% and 1.1% over the past year.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The not-seasonally-adjusted figures showed some sharp increases from the previous month, but these changes were driven by the typical summer upturn associated with students and teachers being off for the summer.  The BLS’s smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates (below) show more modest increases.  Unemployment rates were unchanged in Fayetteville, Little Rock, and Texarkana.  They were up by 0.1% in Hot Springs, Jonesboro, and Pine Bluff.  Fort Smith and Memphis both saw somewhat larger increases (+0.3%).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

b

Changes in payroll employment in the state’s metro areas covered a rather wide range.  Compared to the previous month, employment was down in Jonesboro (-0.6%), Fort Smith (-0.6%), Pine Bluff (-0.8%) and Fayetteville (-1.0%).   Employment increased in the state’s other metro areas, with changes ranging from +0.1% in Memphis to +1.0% in Texarkana.  Over the past 12 months, employment in Texarkana has increased by over 7%.  According to this morning’s report from the BLS,  this was the third-largest year-over-year percentage increase in the country.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment hit a low point in February 2010 (for both Arkansas and the U.S.).  However, employment in three of the state’s metro areas has shown cumulative net declines since then.  Compared to the month before the recession started (December 2007), employment is still down in most metro areas.  Employment in Jonesboro is slightly above its pre-recession level (+0.4%) and it is considerably higher in Texarkana (4.9%).

Metro Area Unemployment Rates – May 2012

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that unemployment rates in May were lower than a year earlier in 331 of the nation’s 372 metropolitan areas.  All of the metro areas in Arkansas fell into this category.  Year-over-year changes ranged from -0.4 percentage points in Northwest Arkansas to    -1.1 percent in Memphis.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Local Area Unemployment Statistics)

The reported unemployment rates were all up sharply from the previous month, but this largely reflects regular seasonal patterns.  According to the smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates released this afternoon, unemployment rates in May were largely unchanged from April.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates)

 Payroll Employment

Today’s report from the BLS also noted that nonfarm payroll employment in May was up from the previous year in 266 metro areas.  Four of the state’s metro areas were included in this total.  The largest year-over-year percentage increase was recorded in Texarkana (+4.4%).  At the other extreme, payroll employment in Fort Smith was down 4.4%.  From April to May, payrolls were up in only three metro areas:  Little Rock (+0.7%), Pine Bluff (+0.8%) and Texarkana (+1.7%).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Employment Statistics)