Payroll Employment – Page 4 – Arkansas Economist

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – September 2015

by Michael Pakko
Employment/Unemployment, General Information, Seasonal adjustment
October 20, 2015

The state employment report that came out this morning contained mixed signals. The good news was that the unemployment rate dropped by two-tenths of a percent to 5.2%. The national unemployment rate remained steady at 5.1%, so the gap between Arkansas and the U.S. rates narrowed. Earlier in the year, Arkansas’ unemployment rate had crept upward, reaching a peak of 5.8% in May.

While the number of unemployed was down by over 2,500, the household data showed that number of employed was up only by about 1,000. Consequently, the Arkansas labor force contracted for the second time in 3 months.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Data
The not-seasonally adjusted payroll data for September showed an increase of 12,300 jobs. However, the gains were almost entirely seasonal. Back-to-school effects boosted state and local government employment (public schools) and private sector employment in education. Leisure and Hospitality and Retail Trade also showed seasonal declines. After seasonal adjustment (shown in the table below), the data showed a slight decline in employment for the month (-700 jobs). A relatively bright spot in the report was employment in the construction sector. Up by 900 jobs for the month, construction activity has added 7,400 jobs over the past year.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – August 2015

by Michael Pakko
Employment/Unemployment, Metro Areas (MSAs), Seasonal adjustment
October 1, 2015

The latest report on metropolitan area unemployment rates came out yesterday, showing unemployment rates down in all of Arkansas’ metro areas. The not-seasonally adjusted data showed that on a year-over-year basis, unemployment rates were down by amounts ranging from 0.5% in Fort Smith to 1.6% in Memphis. The report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics cited a figure that 365 of the 387 metropolitan areas across the country experienced unemployment rate declines since August 2014.

As is typically the case, the change in unemployment rates from July to August is complicated by seasonal factors. Not seasonally adjusted data indicate sharp declines of more than half a percentage point in all eight metro areas; however, that is typical of July-to-August changes. Yet even after seasonal adjustment, rates were down around the state. Three metro areas matched the 0.2% decline previously reported for the statewide unemployment rate (Fayetteville, Jonesboro and Texarkana). Fort Smith and Pine Bluff saw declines of 0.1%, while Little Rock and Memphis saw even larger drops.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment
Changes in nonfarm payroll employment were mixed. Employment was down by 0.5% in Jonesboro and Memphis, and down by 0.2% in Texarkana*. Employment in Pine Bluff was unchanged, and was up in the remaining metro areas. Gains were particularly large in Little Rock (+0.7%) and Hot Springs (+0.8%). Employment is now higher than pre-recession levels in four of the eight metro areas (Jonesboro, Fayetteville, Little Rock and Hot Springs).

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*Note: Payroll data for Texarkana (which now include Little River County) are not presently being published by the BLS on a seasonally adjusted basis. Payroll employment figures for Texarkana refer to data that have been seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement.

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – August 2015

by Michael Pakko
Employment/Unemployment, General Information
September 18, 2015

The Arkansas unemployment rate decreased two-tenths of a percent in August, mirroring the decline that had previously been reported on the national level. At 5.4%, the state’s unemployment rate is nearing pre-recession levels. The August unemployment drop was attributable to both an increase in the number of employed (+3,910) and a decline in the number of unemployed (-2,490).

Payroll Employment
The data on nonfarm payrolls showed a monthly increase of 1,700 jobs (seasonally adjusted). Compared to the previous month, employment was down in the goods producing sectors and retail trade. Employment was up in most service-providing sectors, with Education and Health Services, in particular, continuing to expand.

Compared to a year earlier, payroll employment in Arkansas is up 26,800. Job gains over the past 12 months have been fairly broad-based, with the notable exception of Manufacturing. In fact, Manufacturing employment is still 6,000 jobs lower than at the employment trough of February 2010, and down 35,400 since the onset of the 2008-09 recession. Overall employment is now 7,200 (0.6%) above pre-recession levels.

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Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – July 2015

by Michael Pakko
Employment/Unemployment, General Information, Metro Areas (MSAs), Seasonal adjustment
September 1, 2015

New data on unemployment rates in Arkansas metro areas show continuing downward trends. From July 2014 through July 2015, the state’s unemployment rate declined by 0.8%, with metro area changes ranging from -0.4% (Fort Smith) to -1.2% (Memphis and Texarkana).

Seasonally adjusted data indicate month-to-month declines in unemployment in 5 metro areas, with rates unchanged in Hot Springs and Texarkana. The unemployment rate in Memphis ticked up by one-tenth of a percentage point.

As shown in the figure below, unemployment rates rose slightly in the early months of the year, peaking in April or May. With the exception of Memphis, rates have resumed their decline over the past two to three months. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for Fayetteville fell below 4.0% for the first time since April 2008. At the other extreme, unemployment in Pine Bluff has yet to fall below 7.5%.

Payroll Employment
Data on nonfarm payroll employment (seasonally adjusted) show mixed changes on a month-to-month basis. Metro areas showing employment losses in July included Fayetteville, Fort Smith, Hot Springs, Memphis, and Pine Bluff. Increases were recorded for Jonesboro, Little Rock, and Texarkana. Compared to a year ago, employment is up for six of eight metro areas covering parts of Arkansas, with only Fort Smith and Pine Bluff registering year-over-year declines. The news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that Pine Bluff had the largest year-over-year percentage decline in the nation. A rather sharp monthly drop in Hot Springs dropped the employment total for that metro area back below pre-recession levels, after having briefly moved into positive territory in June.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – July 2015

by Michael Pakko
Employment/Unemployment, General Information
August 21, 2015

The unemployment rate in Arkansas declined by 0.1% in July, bringing the rate back down to where it was in March — 5.6%. The national unemployment rate in July was 5.3%.

Arkansas’ labor force contracted slightly in July as the number of unemployed dropped (-1,300) by more than the increase in the number of employed (+1,000). July’s small labor force contraction followed 14 consecutive months of increase.

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 1,200 in July (seasonally adjusted). Employment in the construction sector showed a particularly sharp increase for the month (+1,800), bringing the 12-month cumulative growth in that sector to 6,800 jobs. Professional and Business services also showed a robust gain (+1,000). Several sectors saw job losses in July, including Manufacturing and Wholesale Trade. Overall, payroll employment over the past 12 months has increased by 28,400 jobs — a growth rate of 2.4%.

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Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – June 2015

by Michael Pakko
Employment/Unemployment, Metro Areas (MSAs)
July 29, 2015

New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that unemployment rates in Arkansas metro areas are all down from a year ago, but the pace of decline has slowed. On a year-over-year basis, the state-wide not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has fallen by 0.6%. In six of the eight metro areas that include parts of Arkansas, rates have fallen by more than that.

On a month-to-month basis, seasonally-adjusted metropolitan area estimates show the unemployment declining in all eight metro areas in June. In six of the eight metro areas, the June decline was larger than the 0.1% drop in the statewide data. Unemployment rates are now at 5% or lower in four of the state’s metro areas.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates — Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

As shown in the figure below, the seasonally adjusted estimates rose somewhat in the earlier part of this year, particularly in metro areas with relatively high unemployment rates. Hence, unemployment rates in those areas are unchanged or up slightly compared to their low points earlier this year. In the four metro areas with the lowest unemployment rates, however, the trend continues downward. Where unemployment rates are at or below 5%, we should not expect significant further reductions.

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment rose in June for six of the eight metro areas, but was down in Fort Smith and Pine Bluff. Those two metro areas are also the only two that have experienced declines over the past 12 months as well. According to the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Pine Bluff retains the dubious distinction of having the largest percentage decline in employment nationwide. On a more positive note, a 1.3% employment increase in Hot Springs made that metro area the fourth in the state to break the barrier of having higher employment now than before the 2008-09 recession.

The figure below illustrates the wide range of payroll employment growth since the onset of the recession (smoothed, by taking quarterly averages of the monthly figures). In Jonesboro, employment is nearly 13% higher than it was in the fourth quarter of 2007. At the other extreme, employment in Pine Bluff has fallen by more than 16% over the same period.

Metro Area Unemployment and Employment – May 2015

by Michael Pakko
Employment/Unemployment, General Information, Metro Areas (MSAs)
July 1, 2015

New data on metro area employment and unemployment came out today, including newly revised unemployment figures from the smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates. On a not seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rates in Arkansas metro areas ranged from a high of 7.7% in Pine Bluff to a low of 4.3% in Fayetteville. All eight of the metro areas that include parts of Arkansas have experienced declines in unemployment over the most recent 12-month period. The largest year-over-year decline was in Texarkana — down 1.2%.

Since the data revisions earlier this year, smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates of metro area unemployment had not been available. The process of updating seasonal factors is now complete, so we new have a new set of estimates to compare month-to-month changes in unemployment rates around the state. As shown in the table below, changes in unemployment rates from April to May were mixed. Unemployment rates were up in Memphis and Pine Bluff, and were unchanged in Fort Smith and Jonesboro. In the other four metro areas, unemployment rates moved one-tenth of a point lower. Statewide, the unemployment rate was unchanged in May.

The revisions to seasonally adjusted unemployment rates come from three sources. First are the changes due to the “new generation of time-series models” that were updated to include updated estimate inputs and population controls. Second are changes in metro area definitions that affected Fort Smith, Memphis and Texarkana (see Metro Area Unemployment and Employment – January 2015). Third are the updates to the seasonal factors themselves. The net results of these updates are illustrated in the set of figures below:

For most of the metro areas in Arkansas, the revisions had the effect of raising the estimates unemployment rates for the period from 2010 through 2012. The revised statistics also show a smoother downward trend in the unemployment data for late-2013 through 2014. So far in 2015, the newly-released statistics show leveling-off of unemployment rates in most metro areas, but a move toward higher rates in some areas, particularly Fort Smith and Pine Bluff.

Payroll Employment
Data from the payroll survey show that nonfarm payroll employment changes were mixed in May. Monthly changes in employment ranged from +1.6% in Hot Springs to -1.2% in Pine Bluff. Compared to a year ago, Pine Bluff is the only metro area to have experienced a decline in payrolls. In fact, the Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment Summary noted that Pine Bluff had the dubious distinction of having “the largest over-the-year percentage decrease in employment” in the nation (according to the not seasonally adjusted data). Compared to employment levels before the 2008-09 recession, Little Rock has moved into positive territory, joining Fayetteville and Jonesboro. The other five metro areas in the state continue to show net declines in employment since December 2007.

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – May 2015

by Michael Pakko
Employment/Unemployment, General Information
June 19, 2015

Arkansas’ unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.7% in May. After having edged down to 5.6% for the first three months of the year, the state’s unemployment rate now stands at the same level as it did in November of 2014. Compared to a year ago, however, the rate is down one-half of a percentage point. The national unemployment rate was 5.5% in May. With rates now in the neighborhood of 5 to 6 percent, unemployment is approaching the “full employment” level and significant further declines are likely to materialize slowly.

Although the unemployment rate was unchanged in May, the number of unemployed increased by 673 — the third consecutive monthly increase. On a more positive note, the number of employed Arkansans was 972 higher than the previous month. Over the past 19 months, the employment count from the household survey has increased by 51,521.

Payroll Employment
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 1,300 in May (seasonally adjusted). Added to the 6,500 increase from the previous month, May’s increase brings employment back to its level of February — offsetting a sharp weather-related drop in March. Compared to its pre-recession level (from December 2007), Arkansas employment is now up by 2,300 jobs (0.2%). By comparison, nationwide employment surpassed its pre-recession level in April 2014, and is now up by an additional 2.4%.

The May report showed declines in the major good-producing sectors, along with Transportation & Utilities and Financial Services. Other service sectors saw employment gains, particularly Education & Health Services. Since the employment trough of February 2010 only three sectors have shown further net declines: Mining & Logging, Manufacturing, and Government. However, many of the sectors that have expanded since then are still registering lower employment totals than before the Great Recession. Manufacturing and Construction remain the weakest sectors in that regard. Combined, employment in goods-producing categories (including Mining & Logging) is down 42,600 since December 2007.

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Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – April 2015

by Michael Pakko
Employment/Unemployment, General Information, Metro Areas (MSAs)
June 3, 2015

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that unemployment rates in all of Arkansas’ metro areas were down from a year earlier. Unemployment rates have been falling for well over a year now, and the pace of decline is slowing somewhat. Consequently, the some of the year-over-year declines in April are smaller than they have been in recent months. From April 2014 to April 2015, changes in unemployment rates have ranged from -0.2% in Fort Smith to -1.1% in Texarkana. Statewide, the unemployment rate declined 0.4% over the same period.

The data are now fully revised to reflect new estimation methodologies and data sources, as well as changes in the definitions of metropolitan areas. However, smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates have not yet been updated, so meaningful month-to-month comparisons are not possible.

Payroll Employment
Recent changes in payroll employment have been mixed. From March to April, both Fort Smith and Jonesboro saw rather sharp increases — up 1.0% and 1.1%, respectively (seasonally adjusted). Smaller gains were reported for Fayetteville, Little Rock and Memphis. The other metro areas experienced month-to-month declines. Over the past 12 months, employment in Pine Bluff has continued to decline and has been basically unchanged in Texarkana.* Year-over-year net job growth has been positive elsewhere. Nevertheless, total employment remains below pre-recession levels in 5 of the 80metro areas that include parts of Arkansas.

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Note: Payroll data for Texarkana (which now include Little River County) are not presently being published by the BLS on a seasonally adjusted basis. Payroll employment figures for Texarkana refer to data that have been seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement.

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – March 2015

by Michael Pakko
Employment/Unemployment, Metro Areas (MSAs)
April 29, 2015

The latest report on metro area employment and unemployment showed that Arkansas metro areas continue to show dramatic year-over-year declines in unemployment rates. As shown in the table below, unemployment rates have fallen by more than a full percentage point over the past year in Jonesboro, Memphis, Pine Bluff, and Texarkana. The smallest decline in unemployment — in the Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway metropolitan area — was 0.7%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
The previously-reported statewide payroll data showed a sharp decline for Arkansas in March. Although the drop-off appears to be largely weather-related, payroll employment declines were also prevalent across the state’s metro areas. Employment declined in 6 of the 8 metro areas that include parts of Arkansas, was unchanged in Texarkana, and was up only slightly in Little Rock. Compared to the previous year, employment has increased in 6 metro areas but is lower in Fort Smith and Pine Bluff.

The chart below illustrates the divergent patterns of employment growth across the state’s metro areas. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2007 (before the onset of the 2008-09 recession), employment is up nearly 12% in Jonesboro and 9.5% in Northwest Arkansas. In the Little Rock metro area, employment has now slightly exceeded it’s pre-recession level. Hot Springs, Memphis and Fort Smith have shown employment gains over the past three years, but remain below pre-recession peaks. Employment has continued to follow a downward trend in both Pine Bluff and Texarkana.* Payroll employment in Pine Bluff is down 13.2% compared to the fourth quarter of 2007.

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