New data on employment and unemployment in metro areas came out earlier this week. The data continue to show substantially lower unemployment rates in most Arkansas metro areas than a year earlier, although most of the decline took place in the latter part of 2015 with monthly data showing rates leveling off more recently. In Texarkana, the unemployment rate has been drifting higher in recent months, leaving a net change of zero compared to August 2016.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
From July to August, seasonally adjusted estimates show no change in unemployment rates in most metro areas. Unemployment rates in Fayetteville and Texarkana crept upward by one-tenth of a percentage point, while Hot Springs saw its unemployment rate decline by one-tenth. The unemployment rate in Pine Bluff increased by two-tenths of a percent.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates
As shown in the figure below, unemployment rates in Arkansas have leveled off since spring, and in some cases have increased through the summer. Considerable variation remains among metro area rates, with unemployment under 3% in Fayetteville and over 5% in Memphis and Pine Bluff.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates
Payroll Employment Estimates of nonfarm payroll employment in August were mixed. From July to August, employment declined in Fayetteville and Pine Bluff, while increasing in Fort Smith, Little Rock, and Memphis. Compared to a year earlier, only Pine Bluff shows a net decline in employment. Since the employment trough of February 2010, the data show strong job growth in the Northwest and Northeast regions of the state, with more modest growth in other metro areas. The exception is Pine Bluff, where employment has continued to decline.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
New data on metropolitan area GDP were published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis last week. For the metro areas in Arkansas, the news was decidedly mixed. Only one of Arkansas’ metro areas — Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers — had GDP growth in excess of the national average for metro areas: Growth in Northwest Arkansas was reported at 4.4%, compared to 2.5% for the aggregate of all U.S. metro areas. At 2.4%, Jonesboro’s growth rate was near the national average. At the other end of the scale, GDP was reported to have contracted in three metro areas, with losses in Hot Springs and Pine Bluff reported at -3.0%.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
The data for a single year do not always reveal the underlying growth trend. As shown in the figure below, for example, the contraction in Hot Springs interrupted a series of years with relatively robust growth. Even after declining 3% in 2015, GDP in Hot Springs was up 12.7% from it’s pre-recession level in 2007. Over the same period, Fayetteville was the fastest-growing metro, with cumulative growth of 28.5%. At the other end of the scale, GDP in Pine Bluff was down nearly 14% from its 2007 level.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Another caveat to the interpretation of the latest data: The figures for 2015 are considered to be “advance estimates,” subject to considerable future revision. The data release last week included revisions to the data for 2014, which were sizable in some cases. In fact, for four metro areas (Hot Springs, Little Rock, Memphis, and Texarkana) even the direction of GDP change in 2014 has now been revised. The update to Texarkana data is particularly large: having been originally estimated at -1.0%, GDP in 2014 is now reported to have increased at a 1.6% rate.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
The revisions to 2014 data show that the new data for 2015 should be interpreted with caution. The multi-year trends in the data are revealing, but the latest reading on annual growth rates may look quite a bit different when the data are revised a year from now.
Unemployment rates ticked up in Arkansas metro areas in June, but rates remain far lower than a year ago. Today’s news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that unemployment rates were lower than a year earlier in 285 of the nations 387 metropolitan areas, and all 8 metro areas that cover parts of Arkansas were in that total. Year-over-year changes ranged from -0.7% in Fort Smith and Texarkana to -1.6% in Pine Bluff.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
From May to June, not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates increased by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points, but most of those gains were typical seasonal changes. After seasonal adjustment, unemployment rates increased by only 0.1 percentage point in most metro areas. Rate increases were larger for Fort Smith and Memphis, and unemployment was unchanged in Texarkana. As previously reported, the statewide unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) was unchanged at 3.8% in June, while the national unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points from 4.7% to 4.9%.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics and Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates
Payroll Employment Nonfarm payroll employment changes were mixed From May to June, payrolls declined in Little Rock, Pine Bluff and Fort Smith but were up in the state’s other metro areas. Employment in Hot Springs was up 0.8%. From June 2015 to June 2016, employment in three metro areas increased at a higher rate than the statewide average of 1.7%: Hot Springs increased 3.8%, Fayetteville was up 3.7%, and Jonesboro rose by 3.5%. Since the employment trough of February 2010, the northwest and northeast corners of the state have seen the strongest job growth (23% in Fayetteville and 16.4% in Pine Bluff). At the other extreme, employment in Pine Bluff is nearly 10% lower than in February 2010, and is down 12.3% from pre-recession levels.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics
The chart below illustrates the divergent employment trends among the state’s metro areas since the 2008-09 recession. Fayetteville, Jonesboro and Little Rock are the only three metro areas to have higher employment now than at the end of 2007.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics
Earlier this week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released new statistics on metro area employment and unemployment in March. Also included in this week’s data dump were the long-awaited annual revisions to household employment and unemployment for metro areas.
The new statistics for March showed that the long decline in unemployment rates has continued, and even accelerated in some metro areas. The not-seasonally adjusted data showed that unemployment rates have fallen significantly over the past 12 months, with changes ranging from -0.8% in Texarkana to -1.9% in Pine Bluff.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
From February to March, unemployment rates continued their downward march in every Arkansas metro area except for Pine Bluff, where the rate stalled at 5.6%.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates
The unemployment rate changes thus far in 2016 come on top of downward revisions to the data for 2015. As shown in the figures below, the revisions to data for 2014 and 2015 generally evened-out some of the volatility, with the revised data showing smoother, more monotonic downward paths.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates
In some cases, there were noticeable changes in the estimated unemployment rate levels (e.g. Pine Bluff and Memphis). The table below summarizes the impact of the revisions on annual average unemployment rates. With the exception of Memphis, revised unemployment levels were subject to small revisions in 2014, but the revisions had the effect of lowering the 2015 average unemployment rates for all eight metro areas.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates
Underlying the changes in unemployment rates, data on employment and unemployment were also revised. The chart below shows the impact of the revisions on overall employment levels (as measured in the household survey data). As of December 2015, the revisions increased measured employment in four metro areas and decreased it in the other four. The largest revisions to the employment data were for Pine Bluff (+5.5%) and Hot Springs (-3.4%).
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates
Payroll Data Data from the independent establishment survey showed weaker employment growth than the household survey. From February to March, payroll employment declined in 6 of 8 metro areas, rising only in Hot Springs and Jonesboro. Compared to a year ago, employment has declined in Pine Bluff, but is higher in all other metro areas. Fayetteville and Jonesboro have displayed the highest growth rates over the past year.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
New data on unemployment rates in metro areas came out yesterday. However, the full time series for employment, unemployment and labor force participation are still not available following the most recent data revision. Consequently, the only information to report at this time is the not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for February. As shown in the table, unemployment rates have fallen substantially over the most recent 12 months in all eight of the metro areas covering portions of Arkansas. Declines range from one full percentage point in Texarkana to 1.7% in Memphis. The BLS News Release noted that Memphis was tied for the largest unemployment rate decline among the 51 metro areas in the country with a population of 1 million or more.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
Payroll Employment: As previously reported, statewide nonfarm payroll employment rose sharply in February, increasing by 6,100 jobs (0.5%). Over half of that net job gain took place in Northwest Arkansas: Employment in the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metro area rose by 3,100 for the month — 1.3%. Gains were also reported in Jonesboro, Little Rock, and Pine Bluff. Employment was down for the month in Fort Smith, Memphis, and Texarkana.* On a year over year basis, employment is up in all metro areas except Pine Bluff.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
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Note: Seasonally adjusted payroll employment data for Texarkana remain temporarily unavailable from the BLS. The data in this report were seasonally adjusted in-house at the Institute for Economic Advancement.
New data on employment and unemployment in metropolitan areas were released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS report noted that unemployment rates were “lower in January than a year earlier in 333 of the 387 metropolitan areas.” All of the metro areas covering parts of Arkansas fell into this category. As shown in the table below, metro unemployment rates have declined dramatically over the past 12 months, with changes ranging from -1.1 percentage points in Fort Smith to -2.3 percentage points in Pine Bluff. Significant differences in unemployment rates around the state remain: The unemployment rate in Northwest Arkansas stood at 3.3% in January (not seasonally adjusted) while the rate for Pine bluff was 6.4%.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Data from the household survey–including unemployment rates–were revised since the release of the December data. However, the revised estimates have not yet been loaded into the BLS time series database, nor have revised seasonally adjusted estimates yet been reported. Consequently, further detailed examination of the paths of unemployment in Arkansas metro areas will await the availability of the revised data, scheduled to be available on April 15th.
Payroll Employment Nonfarm payroll employment dropped statewide in January, with the decline reflected in the metropolitan area data for Fayetteville, Hot Springs, Memphis and Pine Bluff. Jonesboro and Texarkana saw employment gains for the month, while Little Rock and Fort Smith were essentially unchanged. Compared to a year ago, employment was up in most areas of the state, with the exception of a small decline registered for Pine Bluff (which is also the only metro area in the state with net employment losses since the employment trough of February 2010). After revisions (see below), only three metro areas presently display higher levels of employment than before the 2008-09 recession.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The payroll data have been revised as part of the annual benchmark processing to reflect 2015 employment counts from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Not seasonally adjusted figures were revised back to April 2014, and seasonally adjusted numbers were revised back to January 2011. As summarized in the table below, and illustrated with the subsequent panel of charts, the revisions were in some cases quite substantial.
The revisions were generally positive, with the notable exceptions of Jonesboro and Hot Springs. Previously reported data had shown Jonesboro to be the fastest-growing metro area in the state, expanding by 7.5% during 2014 and 2015. That growth rate was marked down by nearly two percentage points. Meanwhile a sharp upward revision to the data for Northwest Arkansas put the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metro area into the top growth rate position (11.1%). The other downward revision affected Hot Springs: A 2.3% downward revision to the estimated level of employment in Hot Springs lowered reported growth from 3.7% to 1.6% for the 2014-15 period.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The largest positive revision was reflected in a 6.3% increase in estimated employment in Pine Bluff. Previously reported data had indicated a 6.8% contraction in employment — primarily over the first half of 2015. The revised data suggest that employment in Pine Bluff has stabilized over the past two years.
A similar, albeit smaller, positive revision for Fort Smith changed estimated employment growth from negative to positive. Previously published data for Texarkana* had indicated sluggish growth but the new data indicate a robust pace of employment expansion.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Note: Seasonally adjusted payroll employment data for Texarkana remain temporarily unavailable from the BLS. The data in this report were seasonally adjusted in-house at the Institute for Economic Advancement.
New data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) show continuing appreciation of Arkansas house prices. As illustrated in the figure below, the FHFA Expanded-Data Index for Arkansas increased in each quarter of 2015. In the fourth quarter, the index was up 1.1% from the previous quarter, and 3.2% higher than the previous year. The index for the U.S. — recovering from a significantly sharper decline of 2007-2011 — was up 1.3% for the quarter and 5.6% for the year.
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
The expanded data indexes are only available at the state level, but the FHFA publishes All-Transactions indexes that cover metropolitan areas as well. The table below summarizes recent house-price changes in Arkansas’ eight metro areas. In the fourth quarter, prices were down in Little Rock, Pine Bluff and Texarkana. For the year, prices were down only slightly in Texarkana, but were higher in all other metro areas (as well as the non-metropolitan portions of the state).
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency; Seasonal Adjustment by the Institute for Economic Advancement.
House prices in Northwest Arkansas have shown the most rapid appreciation over the past five years, but are recovering from the largest house-price declines in state during the 2007-2011 period. In fact, the figure below illustrates that most of the state’s metro and non-metro areas suffered only modest declines during the nationwide housing price collapse, and all have shown at least modest appreciation over the most recent two- to five-year period.
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency; Seasonal Adjustment by the Institute for Economic Advancement.
As previously reported, statewide unemployment declined by two-tenths of a percent in December — a result that is mirrored in new statistics for Arkansas’ metropolitan areas. As shown in the table below, unemployment rates fell in all eight metro areas that include parts of Arkansas.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Over the course of the year, unemployment rates around the state have declined significantly. From December 2014 to December 2015, changes ranged from -0.4% in Fort Smith to one full percentage point in Hot Springs and Jonesboro. At the end of the year, unemployment rates were at or below 5% in five of the eight metro areas.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics
Payroll Employment Changes in nonfarm payroll employment were mixed. Employment declined in Jonesboro, Little Rock, and Pine Bluff, but showed strong gains in Fayetteville, Fort Smith, Hot Springs and Memphis. Compared to a year ago, payroll employment was up in six metro areas, having fallen in Fort Smith and Pine Bluff. Growth over the past 12 months has been particularly strong in Fayetteville and Jonesboro.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics
As shown in the figure below, strong payroll employment growth in Fayetteville and Jonesboro continues a trend that has characterized the entire economic expansion, with the two northern corners of the state experiencing far more rapid growth than the rest of the region. At the other extreme, employment in Pine Bluff has continued to decline. At the end of 2015, Pine Bluff payrolls were down 17.5% from pre-recession levels.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics
Note: The metro-area payroll data will be subject to the annual benchmark revision process, with revised numbers to be reported in mid-March. Our estimates of the statewide employment revisions suggest that the updated data will show slower growth among at least some of the state’s metro areas, particularly for the second half of 2014.
The latest data on metro area employment and unemployment was mixed. In a previous release, the statewide unemployment rate ticked down by one-tenth of a percent in October, but nonfarm payroll employment was basically flat. Overall, the metro area data show similarly unremarkable changes for October.
Not seasonally adjusted data from the household survey shows that unemployment in all of Arkansas metro areas remains below the levels of a year ago. The press release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that year-over-year declines were realized in 337 of the nations 387 metropolitan areas.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
Month to month changes are typically influenced at this time of year by seasonal factors, with schools back in session and holiday temporary hiring starting to pick up. The seasonally adjusted data show, however, there was little change in unemployment rates in Arkansas metro areas after accounting for these recurring seasonal factors. Rates were unchanged in Fayetteville, Hot Springs, Little Rock and Pine Bluff. Unemployment ticked up one tenth of a percent in Jonesboro and Texarkana, and down by one tenth in Fort Smith and Memphis.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
Payroll Employment Changes in nonfarm payroll employment (seasonally adjusted) were mixed. From September to October, employment was unchanged in Little Rock, up slightly in Fayetteville and Fort Smith, but down in the state’s other metro areas. Compared to a year ago, employment was down significantly in Pine Bluff, but unchanged or higher in the other seven metro areas.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released new data on local area personal income for 2014 last week. As shown in the figure and table below, per capita personal income increased in all 8 of the metro areas that include parts of Arkansas, with increases ranging from 1.6% in Pine Bluff to 4.1% in Fort Smith. As measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures, the general level of prices rose by 1.4% in 2014, so all 8 metro areas saw positive growth even after adjusting for inflation.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
The data release also included revisions of estimates from previous years, reflecting information from “source data that are more complete and more detailed than previously available.” For the most part, the revisions to metro area per capita income were negative. For 2013, the revised data lowered measured income just slightly in the Memphis metro area, but by larger amounts in the state’s other metros. Other than Memphis, the smallest downward revision was for Texarkana (-5.7%) while the largest was for Hot Springs (-9.6%). In contrast, the 2013 level of per capita income for the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers Metro Area was revised upward by 30%. A closer look at revisions to data from individual counties shows that the change was primarily attributable to increased estimates of income in Benton County, with the 2013 revision amounting to 63.7%. (Madison county was also revised upward by 13.2%).
A full list of per capita income by county in 2014 — both in terms of dollars and as a percent of the U.S. average — as well as the 2013-14 growth rate is presented below:
