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Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – Jan 2013 and Revisions

New and revised data for state employment and unemployment were released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Workforce Services.

For January, the household survey (a.k.a. Local Area Unemployment Statistics) featured an uptick in the unemployment rate to 7.2% (up from December’s 7.1% rate).  The number of people employed was down by 4,055 while the number employed increased by 760.  Consequently, the labor force declined by nearly 3,300.  The unemployment statistics were recently revised, reducing the magnitude of some recent fluctuations in Arkansas’ unemployment rate.  The revised data show that the rate peaked at 8.0% (instead of 8.2%), and the decline from July 2011 through April 2012 amounted to only 0.7% (instead of 1.0%).  The rate for December 2012 was unrevised at 7.1%.  The uptick in January’s unemployment rate mirrors the 0.1% increase that was previously reported for the U.S. average.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Survey:
The not-seasonally adjusted data for nonfarm payroll employment showed a decline of 20,800 jobs from December to January.  However, payroll employment is subject to particularly large seasonal effects in January:  the holiday break in public schools lowers employment in state and local government sectors, the end of the holiday shopping season reduces retail employment, and construction activity tends to scale back during the winter months.  After seasonal adjustment*, nonfarm payroll employment declined by only 1,700 for the month.

The employment contraction was smaller after seasonal adjustment, but it was still a decline.  Even considering seasonal patterns, construction employment was down 2,300.  Notable declines were also reported for Wholesale Trade, Transportation & Utilities, Professional & Business Services, and Government.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Benchmark Revisions:
The release of the January report was delayed by the annual “Benchmark Revision” process for payroll employment data.  The benchmarking involves a re-calibration of the monthly payroll employment series to be consistent with the more detailed Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).  We had expected the benchmarking process to result in a significant upward revision in the Arkansas payroll data, and it did.  The revisions to data for 2011 were particularly large.  For the period July through December 2011, the average monthly revision was +17,300.  This year, the BLS extended the period subject to benchmark revision to include the second and third quarters of 2012.  This resulted in lower job growth during 2012 than previously reported, but the increases in 2011 left the level of employment substantially higher than the earlier data had suggested.  In addition to the benchmark revision itself, the data were also subject to revised seasonal factors.

In total, the revisions amounted to an increase in payroll employment of 11,900 more than previously estimated for December 2012.     The newly revised data now show that Arkansas payroll employment expanded by 28,700 from February 2010 through January 2013 — a recovery of approximately one-half of the total job losses experienced during the employment contraction of December 2007 through February 2010 (see table above).

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, are available here:  Table – Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment — December 2012

Unemployment rates in Arkansas metro areas ratcheted up in December — a typical seasonal pattern.  After seasonal adjustment, however, rates were essentially unchanged across the state.  As shown in the table below, unemployment rates were lower than the previous year in all of Arkansas’ metro areas, with declines ranging from -0.3% in Memphis to -1.2% in Texarkana (not seasonally adjusted).  Across the nation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that unemployment rates were down from the previous year in 290 of the 370 metropolitan areas, higher in 68 metro areas, and unchanged in 14 areas.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Local Area Unemployment Statistics)

December unemployment rates were up from the previous month, but such increases are typical of December when schools and universities break for the year-end holidays.  The BLS smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates provide a more informative comparison of month-to-month changes.  The smoothed seasonally adjusted numbers show little change in unemployment rates across the state.  Rates ticked down by 0.1% in Fort Smith and Texarkana and ticked up by 0.1% all the other metro areas except Jonesboro (which was unchanged).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates)

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payrolls expanded in December for Jonesboro (+1.0%) and Hot Springs (+0.3%), but were unchanged or lower the state’s other metro areas.  Compared to December of 2011, employment was up in Fayetteville, Jonesboro, Pine Bluff, and Texarkana.  However, it was unchanged or lower in Fort Smith, Hot Springs, Little Rock, and Memphis.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Employment Statistics)

As detailed last month, the next publication of metro area employment data will incorporate the annual benchmark revisions.  The revised data will show a somewhat different picture of employment conditions around the state, particularly in the figures for cumulative employment changes over time.  The table below details our best estimates of what the revised data will indicate.  The new figures will show that employment declined during 2012 in only two metro areas:  Little Rock and Memphis.  The revised data are expected to show a substantial upward revision to the data for Fort Smith, with the result that cumulative changes since the trough of February 2010 will be positive for all metro areas in the state.   On the other extreme, payroll data for Texarkana are expected to be revised downward — resulting in the reversal of cumulative gains since the pre-recession peak of December 2007.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

These expected revisions are only estimates.  Data for metro areas can also be subject to substantial changes in estimated seasonal factors, so the post-benchmark data may differ from the figures summarized in the table above.  Nevertheless, the magnitude of expected revisions for Fort Smith and Texarkana, in particular, are likely to be notable.

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – December 2012

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Workforce Services show the Arkansas unemployment rate ticked up by one-tenth of a percent in December to 7.1%.  The number of unemployed was essentially unchanged (+223), while the number of employed declined by over 8,700.  After falling by a full percentage point between July 2011 and April 2012, Arkansas’ unemployment rate appears to have plateued over the second half of 2012.  As of December, the rate remains 0.7% lower than the U.S. average.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The underlying components of the unemployment rate show a clear change in conditions over the second half of 2012.  Although the number of unemployed persons has generally continued to fall, the number of employed has also trended downward.  As a result, the labor force has contracted significantly.  The period from July 2011 to April 2012 was characterized by an expanding labor force and falling unemployment — a very favorable combination of trends.  Since April, however, the decline in the labor force has nearly erased all of the increase that had previously taken place after Arkansas labor markets began to recover at the beginning of 2010.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment:
Nonfarm payroll employment was also down in December, falling by 3,000 (seasonally adjusted).  Compared to the previous month, employment was down in Manufacturing, Financial Services, Education & Health Services, Leisure & Hospitality Services, and in each of the sub-sectors comprising Trade, Transportation & Utilities.  The only notable increases were in Professional & Business Services, Other Services, and Construction.  In the case of Construction, the not-seasonally-adjusted data actually showed a slight decrease — but it was a smaller decline than would typically be expected in December.  Over the course of the year, total payroll employment rose by 7,700 — a movement in the right direction, but too small to drive any significant progress toward full employment.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Today’s data release was the last scheduled until March 1st, when we’ll see newly-revised statistics.  Based on the underlying data from the Quarterly Census of Wages and Employment (QCEW), we expect that there will be some significant upward revisions to the Arkansas payroll statistics.  However, the revisions primarily affect the data for late 2011 and early 2012.  Hence, the revised payroll data are expected to be more consistent with the patterns we’ve seen in the data from the household survey — improving conditions up until the spring of 2012, but a stagnant labor market situation since then.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

 

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, are available here:  Table – Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – November 2012

New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Workforce Services show the Arkansas unemployment rate fell two-tenths of a percent to 7.0% in November.  The number of unemployed fell by 2,359 to 95,935.  Both the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed were at their lowest levels since January of 2009.  However, household survey also showed that the number of employed persons dropped by 6,305.  Consequently, the labor force contracted by 8,664.  November’s decline represents the sixth consecutive monthly decline in the labor force, and this drop accounts for at least some of the fall in the unemployment rate.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment
Seasonal factors become particularly relevant this time of year, as colder weather and holiday shopping affect employment patterns in a number of sectors.  The not-seasonally-adjusted statistics for payroll employment showed a decline of 1,100 jobs in November, while the seasonally adjusted statistics showed an increase of 2,000.  For example, construction is one sector where seasonal considerations play an obvious role:  without any seasonal adjustment, the number of construction jobs declined by 1,500.  But the seasonally adjusted figures showed a a slight increase.  Other sectors that experienced largely seasonal declines in November included  Leisure & Hospitality and Professional & Business Services.   On the other hand, employment in the Retail Trade sector was up by 4,000 for the month (not seasonally adjusted), but much of that increase was a typical seasonal phenomenon (seasonally adjusted retail employment was up only 800).   Seasonal movements in employment are certainly of interest in their own right, but seasonally-adjusted figures facilitate comparisons aver time that are better-suited to evaluate business cycle conditions — in this case, progress toward recovering jobs that were lost in the 2008-09 recession.

The table below shows seasonally-adjusted changes in employment over the past month and the past year, as well as comparisons with the previous employment peak (Dec 2007) and trough (Feb 2010).  Month-to-month changes were positive in the good-producing sectors, but were down in many of the service-providing sectors.  Compared to November of the previous year, employment was up in most sectors, but lower in Information, Financial, and Professional & Business services.  Construction employment was also down sharply from the previous year.  Overall, the most recent published data show that employment has increased by 22,100 since the trough of February 2010, but is still down 35,700 from the start of the recession.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

As discussed in recent posts (here, for example) the payroll data for 2011 and early 2012 are expected to be revised upward significantly when the benchmark revisions are released next March.  The expected revisions raise the path of payroll employment significantly — particularly in the fourth quarter of 2011.  For the third and fourth quarters of 2012, the revisions are expected to increase measured employment  by over 13,000 jobs.  As shown in the table below, these revisions paint a much rosier picture of progress toward recovery from the 2008-09 recession.  After the expected revisions, November’s employment figures show a recovery of nearly 36,000 jobs since February of 2010, and a shortfall of only 22,000 jobs compared to the month immediately preceding the recession.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, are available here:  Table – Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Arkansas Employment & Unemployment – October 2012

New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Workforce Services show the Arkansas unemployment rate unchanged in October.  The reported uptick from 7.1% to 7.2% was essentially a rounding error (literally — taken to the next decimal place, the rate changed from 7.14% to 7.16%).  Since April of this year, the Arkansas unemployment rate has been stuck in a range of 7.1% to 7.3%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

When the unemployment rate was declining in late 2011 and early 2012, total household employment and labor force participation were rising.  Since April, however, both measures have been trending downward with the number of employed falling by 15,700.  Nevertheless, household employment remains over 10,000 higher than a year ago, and is up over 20,000 compared to July 2011.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment
Today’s report also showed that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4,400 in October (seasonally adjusted).  Employment in goods-producing sectors was down 1,500 jobs, but service-providing sectors added 5,900 jobs.  Increases were prominent in Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, and Leisure & Hospitality Services.  Sizable declines were registered in Professional & Business Services (primarily Administrative & Support Services) and in Construction.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The current data are showing a year-over-year increase in payroll employment of 13,800 jobs, with strong growth in Leisure & Hospitality Services and Education & Health Services.  As discussed in a recent post, however, the payroll data for 2011 and early 2012 are expected to be revised upward significantly.  As shown in the figure below, the expected revisions raise the path of payroll employment growth by over 13,000 by the third quarter of 2012.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

When the revisions are complete, the largest single-month change will be for October 2011–up by 19,000.  With recent monthly observations expected to be revised upward by only 13,600, the revised data will actually show a smaller year-over-year change in employment than currently-published data.  As shown in the table below, the revised data are expected to show a net employment gain of 8,400 from October 2011 through October 2012.  The expected revisions have more significant implications for longer-term measures of employment growth:  The data revisions suggest job growth of 33,800 since February 2010, compared to an increase of 20,200 using currently-published data (see table above).  With recent job gains and expected data revisions, Arkansas is now only 24,000 jobs short of re-attaining the state’s pre-recession level of employment (as of December 2007).

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, are available here:  Table – Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Metro Area Employment & Unemployment – September 2012

A new report on employment and unemployment in the nation’s metropolitan areas came out earlier this week.  It showed that unemployment rates were down from a year earlier in 345 of the 372 metro areas.  In Arkansas, the changes from a year ago ranged from -0.8% in Fort Smith to -1.7% in Pine Bluff.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

From August to September, the jobless rate fell 0.2% in Arkansas and 0.3% nationwide.  Arkansas’ metro areas generally saw declines for the month as well.  The smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates in the table below show lower rates in Hot Springs, Little Rock, Memphis, Pine Bluff, and Texarkana.  Unemployment rates were unchanged in Fayetteville and Jonesboro, but the rate ticked up 0.1% in Fort Smith.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment
September figures on payroll employment suggest a weaker job-market picture than the results of the household survey.   Statewide employment was down 0.2% for the month, with both Fayetteville and Little Rock showing similar declines.  Employment dropped even more sharply in Texarkana, Pine Bluff and especially Jonesboro.  Fort Smith and Hot Springs, on the other hand, saw welcome improvement in the monthly employment figures.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

Since employment hit a statewide trough in February 2010, most of the state’s metro areas have seen at least a partial recovery from the sharp declines of the recession.  Three metro areas — Fayetteville, Jonesboro, and Texarkana — actually have higher employment levels now than at the onset of the recession.   In contrast, Hot Springs, Pine Bluff, and Fort Smith have all seen continued declines in employment since the February 2010 turning-point.

The metro area employment data are subject to the same benchmark revision process as the statewide totals.  Based on estimates of how the revisions will affect Arkansas employment in general, the data for metro area job growth are likely to see upward revisions, particularly for late 2011 and the first part of 2012.  We’ll be presenting some estimates of those expected effects in an upcoming post here on the Arkansas Economist.

This Year’s “Forecasting a Revision of History”

One of the more upbeat prognostications from the 2012 Arkansas Economic Forecast Conference was the prediction that revisions to the employment data will ultimately show much stronger job growth in Arkansas than reported in the currently-published data.  Due to the nature of the expected revisions, this prediction is also somewhat tricky to interpret.  Hence this more detailed explanatory note is in order.

The monthly statistics on payroll employment–the Current Employment Statistics (CES) — are among the most timely and revealing economic indicators available at the state level.  However, they are based on a sample survey of employers, so they are subject to sampling error.  Moreover, important pieces of missing information involves the rate of new business formation and the closure of failed firms.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates the effect of these changes with a “birth/death model.”  Particularly in times of economic turmoil, even the best modeling can end up being far off the mark.  The CES is also subject to a number of other non-sampling errors.

Once per year, the BLS revises the CES data with the more accurate statistics from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).  Based on records from state unemployment insurance offices, the QCEW is very comprehensive, covering 98% of all U.S. jobs.  Because it is so comprehensive, however, it is only available after a fairly long lag.  Data for the first quarter of 2012 only came out at the end of September.  These first quarter data will be used to revise the CES data in the annual “Benchmark Revision” process.

The benchmark revisions will not be completed until after the release of monthly CES data at the end of the year, but there is enough information available at this time to make a fairly accurate estimate of what the revision process will reveal.  In recent years, the revisions have been substantial  (see here and here, for example).  The next benchmark revision is expected to reveal a large upward revision to the total employment count in Arkansas.

The chart below illustrates the magnitude of the expected revision.  The revised data projections diverge from currently-published figures in July 2011, with a net increase of 9,700 jobs.  The largest monthly revision is for October 2011 — amounting to nearly 19,000 jobs.  Because the QCEW data extend only through March 2012, job growth for April through September is unrevised, so monthly changes are simply appended to the revised data.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

Because of the timing of the revisions, the next benchmark revision will show substantial upward adjustment of job growth in 2011.  As a result, the net increase in employment in 2012 will actually be revised downward.  Nevertheless, this downward revision in growth represents a large upward shift in the number of jobs at any particular point in time.   The revisions are expected to raise 2011 job growth from -3,100 to +9,400, an upward revision of 12,500 jobs.  With employment expected to be so much higher at the end of 2011, job growth data for 2012 will actually be lower than current data are showing.  For example, year-over-year growth through September 2012 is currently reported at +10,800, but is likely to be revised to +10,300.

As of September 2012, the benchmark revisions are expected to raise the level of employment by 13,500 jobs.  Estimating the expected benchmark revisions sector by sector, the new data will show a mix of changes — as detailed in the table below (using quarterly-average data).  Some of the larger upward revisions include Professional & Business Services, Retail Trade, and Construction.  Not all sectors will be revised upward, however.  For example, the revised data are expected to show lower government employment, particularly at the state and local level.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

The actual benchmark revision process involves far more detail than the rough estimates presented here.  Nevertheless, the simple log-linear regression techniques we have used to estimate the benchmarking have turned out to be quite accurate in the past.  The official revisions will not be available until March 2013.  So in the meantime, data from the CES will need to be interpreted in light of this yet-to-be-incorporated new information.  Although it adds complexity to the interpretation of the data, we’ll be providing that analysis here on the pages of the Arkansas Economist in coming months.  As an illustration of how the expected revisions change the monthly tracking of job growth, the following two tables compare the September jobs report using currently-published data and expected-revised data.

Currently-Published Data

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

With Expected Revisions:

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; revisions estimated by the Institute for Economic Advancement

The most recent month-to-month changes are unaffected by the revision.  The year-over-year figures for total employment growth are revised downward, as described earlier.  Perhaps the most striking difference between the two tables is the column showing cumulative growth since the employment trough-date of February 2010.  The unrevised data show total growth of 15,700 jobs — about one-quarter of the total number of jobs lost during the recession.  After revision, however, the new cumulative job growth total is 29,200 — an increase that represents over half of the recessionary job losses.  Given the projected employment growth embodied in the forecast for 2013 and 2014, this revision makes it likely that we will reach the point of total employment equal to the pre-recession peak by sometime in early 2014, rather than at the end of 2014 as projected using the unrevised data.

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – September 2012

The unemployment rate in Arkansas declined by 0.2% to 7.1% in September.  According to the news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 44 states plus D.C. saw unemployment declines, with only 6 states seeing increases.  Compared to September 2011, the unemployment rate in Arkansas is down by 1 full percentage point.  The U.S. rate is down 1.2% from a year earlier.  The number of unemployed Arkansans fell by 1,877 to 98,276 — the lowest level since February 2009.  The household survey also showed a decline in the number of unemployed (-759), so the Arkansas labor force also contracted for the month.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The payroll survey showed a net job loss for the month (seasonally adjusted).  Before seasonal adjustment, the number of payroll jobs was up by 12,300; however, that increase primarily reflects the seasonal return to work at public schools and universities.  After seasonal adjustment, the month-to-month change was -2,600.  Changes in industry employment were mixed.  Relatively large increases were recorded in Education and Health Services (-1,800), Financial Services (-600), and Professional and Business Services (-600).

Compared to a year earlier, employent was up by 10,800 with gains concentrated in several service-providing sectors.  Since the employment trough of February 2010, total payroll employment was up 15,700.  As of September, employment was still 42,000 lower than its pre-recession peak.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Recently released statistics — including those for September 2012 — have shown disappointing progress toward recovering the jobs lost during the recession.  However, when data revisions are eventually factored into the current employment statistics, the picture is likely to be far more encouraging.  (See, Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – June 2012).  More details and updates to the expected data revisions will be presented at the 2012 Arkansas Economic Forecast Conference.

 

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, are available here:  Table – Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – August 2012

New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show unemployment rates trending downward across most of the U.S. — and Arkansas is no exception.  The statistics for August show unemployment lower than the previous year in 325 of the nation’s 372 metro areas.  As shown in the table below, unemployment rate declines in Arkansas ranged from -0.6% in Fort Smith to -1.4% in Pine Bluff.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

A quick comparison of August with the July unemployment rates would seem to suggest dramatic monthly declines; however, these changes primarily reflect recurring seasonal patterns — and the conventional unemployment measures for metro areas are not seasonally adjusted.  In this case, an important factor the start of the school year, when many teachers and students return to work or leave the labor force.  As a point of comparison, the headline unemployment rate statewide was unchanged in August at 7.3% (seasonally adjusted) while the not-seasonally-adjusted data showed a monthly decline of 0.9%.

Looking instead at the BLS’s smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates (below) we get a more accurate view of month-to-month changes.  From July to August, the seasonally adjusted figures show declines in Fayetteville, Hot Springs, Little Rock, Memphis and Pine Bluff.  The rate was unchanged in Jonesboro and Texarkana, while it increased in Fort Smith.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

The following chart shows the trends in seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates over the past three years.  Rates have generally been in decline since autumn of 2011, although there has been some recent increases in Memphis and Fort Smith.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Data
Information from the survey of employers showed a wide range of employment changes among the state’s metro areas.  Texarkana showed a sharp monthly decline, with smaller contractions in Fort Smith, Hot Springs and Little Rock.  Employment was up in Memphis, Fayetteville, Pine Bluff , and especially Jonesboro.  Compared to a year earlier, employment was higher in six of the eight metro areas.  Relative to employment levels at the start of the recession, Arkansas now has three metro areas that have shown positive net job growth.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

 

 

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – August 2012

The unemployment rate in Arkansas was unchanged in August, remaining at 7.3%.  According to the news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 26 states saw increases in unemployment, 12 states saw decreases, and Arkansas was one of 12 states where the rate was unchanged.  Both employment and unemployment were down for the month, with the labor force declining by 3,600.  In percentage terms, this is nearly identical to the labor force contraction that was widely noted in the national unemployment statistics released two weeks ago.  From July 2011 through May of this year, Arkansas had been running counter to the national trend with labor force participation rising steadily.  August represents the third consecutive monthly decline.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment:

Information from the payroll survey was a bit more upbeat.  Total employment was up 2,600 for the month (seasonally adjusted).   Construction employment alone was up by 2,000, reversing the sharp decline that we saw in July.   Employment in several service sectors also increased, including Education & Health Services and Leisure & Hospitality Services.  Government employment was also higher, with net increases in Federal, State, and Local government hiring.

On the down side, employment contracted in both Wholesale and Retail trade sectors (-1,200 combined) and was also down in the Manufacturing sectors (-1,300).  Manufacturing job-losses were present in both durable and nondurable goods production.

On a year-over-year basis, payroll employment is up by around 10,000 jobs, but most of that increase took place in the final months of 2011.  Total employment in August was essentially unchanged from its level at the beginning of 2012.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES)

Overall, the data from August reinforce the view that the steadily improving conditions we saw in Arkansas labor markets during the second half of 2011 and the first part of this year have given way to relative stagnation.  The unemployment rate is stuck in the range of 7.1 to 7.3, and payroll employment is similarly showing no clear trend in recent months.

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, are available here:  Table – Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.