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Unemployment Demographics in Arkansas

The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently published some preliminary statistics on 2012 state unemployment rates – broken down by gender, race, ethnicity and age.  A comparison of Arkansas with the rest of the country yields some interesting observations.

As shown in the table below, the overall unemployment rate in Arkansas was one-half percentage point lower than the national average in 2012, and Arkansas ranked near the median among the 50 states plus District of Columbia.  For the U.S. as a whole, the 2012 unemployment rate was slightly higher for men than for women, but there was no gender difference in Arkansas.

Sorting by race, unemployment rates were significantly higher for Black or African American residents than for Whites.  This is true both nationwide and for Arkansas; however, the degree of disparity is larger in Arkansas.  Among Whites, the Arkansas unemployment rate was 1.2 percentage points lower than the national average, but for Black or African American Arkansans, the unemployment rate was more than 2 percentage points higher than the U.S. rate.  Rankings among the states also show the relative disparity:  the unemployment rate among Whites was below the median while the unemployment rates among Black or African Americans were well above the median.  For Black or African American men, Arkansas had the 12th highest unemployment rate in the country.

In contrast, unemployment rates among residents with Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, unemployment rates were far lower in Arkansas (5.5%) than for the U.S. as a whole (10.3%).  For that ethnic group, Arkansas unemployment rates ranked among the lowest in the country.  For Latino or Hispanic women, the Arkansas unemployment rate was the fourth-lowest in the U.S.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment rates by age group break down similarly for both the U.S. and Arkansas, with rates significantly higher for younger age groups than for older cohorts.  Nevertheless, there are some notable distinctions.  Youth unemployment — 16-19 years and 20-24 years — was higher in Arkansas than the national average, with the state ranking 11th highest in both specific age groups.  Among older workers, unemployment rates in Arkansas are well below the national average. Of particular note is the 55-64 cohort, which has an unemployment rate of only 3.3% in Arkansas, compared to a 5.9% national average.

Among the various age groups, unemployment rates for men and women show some marked differences.  Among Teenagers (16-19), the rate for males is far higher than for females – and well above the national average.  Moving up just one age bracket, the pattern is reversed for 20-24 year olds.  There is also a sharp gender difference in the 45-54 category:  The unemployment rate for women is only 3.8% (compared to 6.2% nationally), while the rate for men is 6.4% — above the national average.

The unemployment rate is an important indicator of labor market performance, but my no means is it the best summary measure.  Labor force participation rates and employment-population ratios also provide important information about the employment status of various demographic groups that can help interpret the unemployment rate.  For example, we noted that unemployment rates among 55-64 year-olds is relatively low in Arkansas.  However, the participation rate for this cohort is only 51.6% in Arkansas, compared to 64.5% nationwide.  As a result, employed persons 55-64 years old comprise only 49.9% of the total population in that age bracket in Arkansas, but for the U.S. the employment-population ratio is 60.6%.  Hence, one reason that unemployment is so low for 55-65 year olds in Arkansas is that far fewer of the members of that cohort are in the labor force.

For those readers interested in looking at these figures in more detail, a supplemental table —  comparing the U.S. and Arkansas in terms of population shares, labor force participation rates, employment-population ratios along with unemployment rates – is available here (Excel spreadsheet)

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – April 2013

Arkansas’ unemployment rate fell slightly in April, declining from 7.2% to 7.1%.  The household survey reported that employment increased by nearly 1,700 and unemployment dropped by more than 800.  The resulting increase in the labor force interrupted a string of 14 consecutive monthly of declines.   The April increase is a welcome change.  Nevertheless, from its recent peak in January 2012, the Arkansas labor force has experienced a cumulative contraction of 36,800.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

The 0.1% decline in Arkansas’ unemployment rate matches the drop in the national rate reported for April.  Compared to a year earlier, however, Arkansas unemployment rate has declined by only 0.2%, compared to a drop of 0.6% for the nation as a whole.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment
Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4,500 for the month (seasonally adjusted*) — the largest monthly gain since October of 2012.   Employment in goods-producing sectors was essentially flat, with the job gains concentrated in service providing sectors.  Increases were notable in Professional & Business Services (+2,200) and in Retail Trade (+2,200).  For the first four months of the year, job growth in Arkansas has averaged over 2,000 per month.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Since the employment trough of February 2010, cumulative employment growth has added 38,800 jobs to Arkansas payrolls, representing about two-thirds of the jobs lost between December 2007 and February 2010.  Total nonfarm payroll employment in April was 1.5% below its pre-recession peak.  For the entire United States, April employment remained 1.9% below the pre-recession peak.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, are available here:  Table – Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – March 2013

The unemployment rate in Arkansas was unchanged at 7.2% in March.  The household survey suggests that the number of unemployed has stabilized at approximately 96,000, but ongoing decline in household employment continued for a 13th consecutive month.  Since February 2012 household employment has dropped by approximately 32,600 and the corresponding measure of the state’s labor force has dropped by 37,700.  If this entire decline in employment was classified as an increase in unemployment (instead of as a reduction in the labor force), the state’s unemployment rate would now stand at 9.7%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
The payroll survey continued to show greater strength than the household report.  Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 2,400 in March (seasonally adjusted), following a revised increase of 3,000 in February.  As shown in the table below, job losses were particularly notable in Leisure and Hospitality Services and Manufacturing.  Without seasonal adjustment, employment in Leisure and Hospitality was up slightly (700 jobs), but that increase is far smaller than would typically be expected in March.  Sectors with notable increases in employment included Construction and Business & Professional Services.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

The two measures of state employment — the household survey and the payroll survey — continue to provide conflicting signals.  The household measure of employment has now declined to a new post-recession low, while the payroll survey has shown positive growth (albeit slow and uneven) since February 2010.  Except for the most recent observations (which are still subject to future revision) the payroll figures are based on a very inclusive and comprehensive set of data.  This suggests that the anomalous reading are coming from the household survey.  However, we cannot rule out the possibility that the household survey is documenting significant weakness in Arkansas labor-market trends that have yet to be fully reflected in the payroll data.  Stay tuned.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (LAUS & CES)

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, are available here:  Table – Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

 

Metro Area Unemployment and Employment – February 2013

Unemployment rates in Arkansas’ metro areas generally remain lower than a year ago, but smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates show recent increases in some areas of the state.

The not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate data showed that February-to-February changes in unemployment rates ranged from -0.9% in Fort Smith to +0.1% in Memphis (Memphis is the only metro area that showed a year-over-year increase).   According to the news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment rates were lower in February than a year earlier in 287 of the nation’s 372 metro areas and higher in only 69 areas.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

In the most recent report on employment and unemployment for the state, we noted that the Arkansas labor force has been declining precipitously over the past year.  From February 2012 through February 2013, the state’s labor force declined by 2.8% (using not-seasonally adjusted data).  As shown in the table below, not all of Arkansas’ metro areas have experienced comparable declines.  Over the past 12 months, Fort Smith and Jonesboro have both seen increases in the size of their labor forces, while Fayetteville’s labor force is down only slightly.  The state’s largest declines are in Pine Bluff and Texarkana, with Hot Springs and Little Rock also showing contractions that are proportionally larger than the statewide total.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Monthly changes in the Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Estimates of metro area unemployment rates were mixed:  Rates were lower in Fayetteville and Fort Smith; unchanged in Hot Springs and Jonesboro; and were higher in Little Rock, Memphis, Pine Bluff and Texarkana.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

The February changes in unemployment rates contributed to some recent divergence among the state’s metro areas.  For example, the unemployment rate in Fort Smith has now fallen by 0.6% since last October, while the rate in Pine Bluff has risen by 0.4% since September.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment
Data on nonfarm payroll employment showed month-to-month declines in Hot Springs (-1.0%) and Texarkana (-0.5%), but increases in the state’s other metro areas.  Compared to a year earlier, employment is higher in most metro areas, but down in Pine Bluff and Texarkana.  Pine Bluff is the only metro area that has experienced ongoing job losses since the employment trough of February 2010.  Two metro areas — Fayetteville and Jonesboro — have higher levels of employment now than before the onset of the 2008-09 recession.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

 

 

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – February 2013

The Arkansas unemployment rate was in February was 7.2%, unchanged from the previous month.  New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Workforce Services showed that the number of unemployed declined by nearly 600, partly offsetting the January increase.  However, the February household survey also showed a sharp decline in employment for a second consecutive month.  The two-month decline in employment with little change in unemployment implies a sharp contraction of the labor force.  This was the for 13th consecutive monthly decline in the size of the labor force, with an apparent acceleration of the trend during the first two months of 2013.  Since January 2012, the labor force has fallen by more than 30,000 — about 2.2%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Survey
Nonfarm payroll employment was up by 2,800 in February (seasonally adjusted*).  For the first two months of the year, payroll employment rose by only 600, and is essentially unchanged (+800) from October of 2012.  As detailed in the table below, employment was up for the month in each of the goods-producing sectors and in most of the service-providing sectors as well.  The only monthly declines were in Information Services, Financial Services, and Other Services.   Employment in most sectors has increased over the past year, and most have shown positive growth since the post-recession employment trough of February 2010.  Notable exceptions are Construction, Manufacturing, Information Services, and Other Services.  Overall, employment is up 31,000 since the February 2010, a recovery of approximately 54% of the jobs that were lost during the recession.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The overall employment trends indicated by the household survey and the payroll survey have been diverging in the first part of 2013.  As shown in the figure below, the two data sources rarely provide identical signals about short-term employment changes, yet they generally show similar trends. However, the sharp decline in household employment in January and February clearly contrasts with the relatively unchanged employment profile suggested by the payroll survey.  Ordinarily, economists tend to rely more on the payroll figures as providing a more complete and accurate assessment of labor market conditions.  But as we have recently seen, the payroll employment statistics are preliminary and subject to future revision.  As additional employment data are released in the coming weeks and months, we’ll be closely monitoring the relative performance of the household and payroll employment statistics, seeking to reconcile the conflicting signals they seem presently to be providing.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, are available here:  Table – Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Metro Area Unemployment & Employment – January 2013

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced new data on metro area employment and unemployment this morning. The BLS news release noted that unemployment rates were lower in January 2013 than a year earlier in 227 of the nation’s 372 metropolitan areas.  Most of Arkansas’ Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) fall into this category, with the exception of Memphis and Pine Bluff.  The largest year-over-year declines were in Fayetteville (-0.4%), Jonesboro (-0.3%), and Texarkana (-0.3%).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

A look at the month-to-month changes in unemployment rates around the state might appear as cause for alarm.  As shown in the table below, unemployment rates were up sharply, with increases ranging from +0.6% in Fort Smith to +1.5% in Pine Bluff and Texarkana.

However, the primary explanation for these large increases is seasonal variation.  With the end of the holiday shopping season, cold weather suppressing construction activity, and many public schools still on winter break, unemployment always rises in January.  Indeed, the not-seasonally-adjusted numbers for statewide unemployment show an increase of more than a full percentage point in January — in contrast to the +0.1% (seasonally adjusted) that was headlined earlier this week.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

The figure below illustrates the annual seasonal pattern for statewide unemployment rates.  Seasonal patterns for metro areas often have distinctive characteristics, but generally follow a similar pattern.  On average, the unemployment rate rises from December to January by nearly a full percentage point — due solely to recurring seasonal factors.  Looking ahead, the good news is that seasonal factors typically drive the unemployment rate down by more than one-half of a percentage point in both March and April.

These recurring swings in unemployment are interesting illustration of the seasonal cycle, but they can get in the way of evaluating labor market conditions relative to the business cycle.  That is, if we are interested in evaluating the recovery of labor markets from the last recession, seasonal components can give misleading signals when comparing monthly changes in not-seasonally-adjusted data.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, author’s calculations

The value of seasonal adjustment is that it removes the seasonal component leaving only the cyclical component (ideally, at least).  Although national and state unemployment rates are routinely released in seasonally-adjusted form, the metro area data are not — at least not in the “headline” news release.  However, the BLS does publish Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Estimates, which are summarized for Arkansas’ metro areas for January 2013 in the table below.

By these estimates, unemployment rates were higher in Memphis, Pine Bluff, and Texarkana — but only by two- to three-tenths of a percentage point.  Rates were unchanged in Hot Springs, Jonesboro, and Little Rock.  After seasonal adjustment, unemployment rates were actually down for the month in Fayetteville and Fort Smith.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

These statistics are far from perfect, and one should never put too much emphasis on data for a single month.  Nevertheless, they provide better information on the cyclical state of labor markets in Arkansas (i.e., how they are recovering relative to the last recession) than the not-seasonally adjusted estimates.

Payroll Employment
The annual benchmark revisions to the metro area payroll employment statistics were described in a previous post.  The table below summarizes the newly-revised data for January 2013.  From December to January, payroll employment was up in Fayetteville, Fort Smith, Hot Springs and Jonesboro.  Declines were registered for Little Rock, Memphis, Pine Bluff, and Texarkana.

Compared to January 2011, employment is higher or essentially unchanged in all of Arkansas’ metro areas except Pine Bluff.  Pine Bluff is also the only metro area that has experienced an ongoing contraction since the statewide employment trough of February 2010.  With the newly-revised data, only Fayetteville and Jonesboro have employment levels higher than before the onset of the last recession (December 2007).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

 

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – Jan 2013 and Revisions

New and revised data for state employment and unemployment were released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Workforce Services.

For January, the household survey (a.k.a. Local Area Unemployment Statistics) featured an uptick in the unemployment rate to 7.2% (up from December’s 7.1% rate).  The number of people employed was down by 4,055 while the number employed increased by 760.  Consequently, the labor force declined by nearly 3,300.  The unemployment statistics were recently revised, reducing the magnitude of some recent fluctuations in Arkansas’ unemployment rate.  The revised data show that the rate peaked at 8.0% (instead of 8.2%), and the decline from July 2011 through April 2012 amounted to only 0.7% (instead of 1.0%).  The rate for December 2012 was unrevised at 7.1%.  The uptick in January’s unemployment rate mirrors the 0.1% increase that was previously reported for the U.S. average.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Survey:
The not-seasonally adjusted data for nonfarm payroll employment showed a decline of 20,800 jobs from December to January.  However, payroll employment is subject to particularly large seasonal effects in January:  the holiday break in public schools lowers employment in state and local government sectors, the end of the holiday shopping season reduces retail employment, and construction activity tends to scale back during the winter months.  After seasonal adjustment*, nonfarm payroll employment declined by only 1,700 for the month.

The employment contraction was smaller after seasonal adjustment, but it was still a decline.  Even considering seasonal patterns, construction employment was down 2,300.  Notable declines were also reported for Wholesale Trade, Transportation & Utilities, Professional & Business Services, and Government.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Benchmark Revisions:
The release of the January report was delayed by the annual “Benchmark Revision” process for payroll employment data.  The benchmarking involves a re-calibration of the monthly payroll employment series to be consistent with the more detailed Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).  We had expected the benchmarking process to result in a significant upward revision in the Arkansas payroll data, and it did.  The revisions to data for 2011 were particularly large.  For the period July through December 2011, the average monthly revision was +17,300.  This year, the BLS extended the period subject to benchmark revision to include the second and third quarters of 2012.  This resulted in lower job growth during 2012 than previously reported, but the increases in 2011 left the level of employment substantially higher than the earlier data had suggested.  In addition to the benchmark revision itself, the data were also subject to revised seasonal factors.

In total, the revisions amounted to an increase in payroll employment of 11,900 more than previously estimated for December 2012.     The newly revised data now show that Arkansas payroll employment expanded by 28,700 from February 2010 through January 2013 — a recovery of approximately one-half of the total job losses experienced during the employment contraction of December 2007 through February 2010 (see table above).

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, are available here:  Table – Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment — December 2012

Unemployment rates in Arkansas metro areas ratcheted up in December — a typical seasonal pattern.  After seasonal adjustment, however, rates were essentially unchanged across the state.  As shown in the table below, unemployment rates were lower than the previous year in all of Arkansas’ metro areas, with declines ranging from -0.3% in Memphis to -1.2% in Texarkana (not seasonally adjusted).  Across the nation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that unemployment rates were down from the previous year in 290 of the 370 metropolitan areas, higher in 68 metro areas, and unchanged in 14 areas.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Local Area Unemployment Statistics)

December unemployment rates were up from the previous month, but such increases are typical of December when schools and universities break for the year-end holidays.  The BLS smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates provide a more informative comparison of month-to-month changes.  The smoothed seasonally adjusted numbers show little change in unemployment rates across the state.  Rates ticked down by 0.1% in Fort Smith and Texarkana and ticked up by 0.1% all the other metro areas except Jonesboro (which was unchanged).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates)

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payrolls expanded in December for Jonesboro (+1.0%) and Hot Springs (+0.3%), but were unchanged or lower the state’s other metro areas.  Compared to December of 2011, employment was up in Fayetteville, Jonesboro, Pine Bluff, and Texarkana.  However, it was unchanged or lower in Fort Smith, Hot Springs, Little Rock, and Memphis.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Employment Statistics)

As detailed last month, the next publication of metro area employment data will incorporate the annual benchmark revisions.  The revised data will show a somewhat different picture of employment conditions around the state, particularly in the figures for cumulative employment changes over time.  The table below details our best estimates of what the revised data will indicate.  The new figures will show that employment declined during 2012 in only two metro areas:  Little Rock and Memphis.  The revised data are expected to show a substantial upward revision to the data for Fort Smith, with the result that cumulative changes since the trough of February 2010 will be positive for all metro areas in the state.   On the other extreme, payroll data for Texarkana are expected to be revised downward — resulting in the reversal of cumulative gains since the pre-recession peak of December 2007.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

These expected revisions are only estimates.  Data for metro areas can also be subject to substantial changes in estimated seasonal factors, so the post-benchmark data may differ from the figures summarized in the table above.  Nevertheless, the magnitude of expected revisions for Fort Smith and Texarkana, in particular, are likely to be notable.

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – December 2012

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Workforce Services show the Arkansas unemployment rate ticked up by one-tenth of a percent in December to 7.1%.  The number of unemployed was essentially unchanged (+223), while the number of employed declined by over 8,700.  After falling by a full percentage point between July 2011 and April 2012, Arkansas’ unemployment rate appears to have plateued over the second half of 2012.  As of December, the rate remains 0.7% lower than the U.S. average.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The underlying components of the unemployment rate show a clear change in conditions over the second half of 2012.  Although the number of unemployed persons has generally continued to fall, the number of employed has also trended downward.  As a result, the labor force has contracted significantly.  The period from July 2011 to April 2012 was characterized by an expanding labor force and falling unemployment — a very favorable combination of trends.  Since April, however, the decline in the labor force has nearly erased all of the increase that had previously taken place after Arkansas labor markets began to recover at the beginning of 2010.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment:
Nonfarm payroll employment was also down in December, falling by 3,000 (seasonally adjusted).  Compared to the previous month, employment was down in Manufacturing, Financial Services, Education & Health Services, Leisure & Hospitality Services, and in each of the sub-sectors comprising Trade, Transportation & Utilities.  The only notable increases were in Professional & Business Services, Other Services, and Construction.  In the case of Construction, the not-seasonally-adjusted data actually showed a slight decrease — but it was a smaller decline than would typically be expected in December.  Over the course of the year, total payroll employment rose by 7,700 — a movement in the right direction, but too small to drive any significant progress toward full employment.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Today’s data release was the last scheduled until March 1st, when we’ll see newly-revised statistics.  Based on the underlying data from the Quarterly Census of Wages and Employment (QCEW), we expect that there will be some significant upward revisions to the Arkansas payroll statistics.  However, the revisions primarily affect the data for late 2011 and early 2012.  Hence, the revised payroll data are expected to be more consistent with the patterns we’ve seen in the data from the household survey — improving conditions up until the spring of 2012, but a stagnant labor market situation since then.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

 

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, are available here:  Table – Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – November 2012

New data on employment and unemployment in Arkansas’ metro areas generally show improvements in labor market conditions around the state.  This morning’s data release from the Bureau of Labor Statisics showed that unemployment rates in November were lower than a year ago in all eight of the metro areas that include parts of Arkansas.  The year-over-year declines range from -0.3 percentage points in Jonesboro to -1.4 percentage points in Memphis.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Local Area Unemployment Statistics)

The not-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates were down from the previous month in all metro areas — quite sharply in some cases.  However, recurring seasonal patterns drove a large proportion of the changes.  Even after seasonal adjustment, however, unemployment rates were down for the month in most of Arkansas metro areas.  Data from the BLS smoothed seasonally adjusted estimates showed particularly sharp declines in unemployment for Memphis (-0.4%) and Texarkana (-0.3%).  The seasonally adjusted estimates showed that rates were unchanged in Jonesboro, Little Rock, and Pine Bluff.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates)

The chart below shows the path of seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates over the past three years.  Although some metro areas have seen temporary increases from month to month, the trend of lower rates has clearly prevailed since the latter part of 2011.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metroplitan Area Estimates)

Payroll Data
Data from the survey of employers told a similarly upbeat story.  From October to November, employment increased in all metro areas except Little Rock. Monthly increases exceeded a full percentage point in Hot Springs, Jonesboro, and Pine Bluff. Compared to the previous November, employment was higher in Fayetteville, Jonesboro, Little Rock, Pine Bluff and Texarkana. Only Fort Smith, Hot Springs, and Memphis showed lower level of employment than a year earlier. The currently-published data show that all of Arkansas’ metro areas except Fort Smith have shown positive growth since the statewide employment trough-date of February 2010.  But only Fayetteville, Jonesboro and Texarkana show employment above pre-recession levels.

Sourse: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Employment Statistics)

Expected Data Revisions
The employment data in the table above summarizes currently-published data.  When the payroll data are revised and benchmarked against more reliable data, however, the situation is likely to look quite different.  In previous posts (here for example), we have reported that recent employment data for the state of Arkansas is likely to be revised up by over 13,500 jobs (about 1.2%).  The data revisions for metropolitan areas are subject to greater uncertainty, but the underlying data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages suggest that some of the metro employment figures will be revised substantially.   As shown in the set of charts below, revisions will be particularly significant for Fort Smith, Jonesboro, and Texarkana.  In percentage terms, the largest revision (and arguably the most welcome) is expected to affect data for Fort Smith.  The new data will show that the currently published figures underestimate actual employment in Fort Smith by approximately 5,700 jobs, or 5.2%.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

With these expected revisions, the November employment situation looks somewhat different.  The most recent change (from October to November) will not be affected.  However, the year-over-year, change-since-trough and change-since-peak comparisons will be affected.  The table below summarizes the revised situation (compare to the table above of the same title).

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

Note that these are preliminary estimates calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement.  The official benchmark revisions will not be published until March 2013.