The final pre-revision employment report for 2015 came out this morning, showing the Arkansas unemployment rate falling 2-tenths of a percent to 4.8% in December.   The number of employed rose by nearly 3,700 and the number of unemployed dropped by 2,200.   As a result, the size of the labor force increased by 1,500.  Over the past seven months, the size of the labor force has held fairly steady, with employment expanding by 11,540 and unemployment dropping by 11,230.  Over that time period, the unemployment rate has fallen by one percentage point, from 5.8% in May to 4.8% in December.

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment expanded sharply in December, increasing by 8,900 from November (seasonally adjusted).  The November figure was also revised upward by 1,200 from the previously reported level.

Employment increases were recorded over a wide range of sectors, with a particularly strong gain in Leisure & Hospitality Services (+3,300).  Manufacturing employment expanded by 1,500, with gains reported in particular in food manufacturing.  Over the past 12 months, payroll employment has expanded by 19,300 — approximately 1.6%.

Today’s report was the final estimate of nonfarm payrolls before the annual benchmark revisions, which will be released on March 14.  Based on the more complete series of employment statistics from the Quarterly Census of Wages and Employment (QCEW) we are estimating that the net revision will show about 8,000 fewer jobs at the end of 2015 than current statistics are reporting.  Much of the downward revision to job growth will affect the latter part of 2014, with revisions to December 2014 employment to be approximately negative 6,000.  From that revised base, the benchmarked data for 2015 should show growth of around 17,000 jobs for 2015 (December over December), a growth rate of approximately 1.4%.

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found here:  Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

The unemployment rate in Arkansas declined by one-tenth of a percent to 5.0% in November, matching the national average.  The press release from the Department of Workforce Services pointed out that the last time the Arkansas unemployment rate was this low was in April 2008 (when the U.S. unemployment rate was also 5.0%).

The household data showed that the number of unemployed declined by 1,968, while the number of employed edged up by 205 (resulting in a labor force decline of 1,763.)  Over the past six months, the number of employed Arkansans has increased by 9,443 while the number of unemployed has declined by 10,301.

Payroll Survey
In contrast to the recent employment trends from the household survey data, nonfarm payroll employment contracted by 2,200 jobs in November (seasonally adjusted).  The employment total for October was revised upward by 1,100 jobs, however, so the net change from September was a loss of only 1,300 jobs.  Compared to 6 months ago (May), payroll employment has increased by 4,200.  Over the past 12 months, it is up by 14,700.  While the trend in job growth remains positive, there is clearly a loss of momentum in recent months.

From October to November, both Manufacturing and Construction were down by over 1,000 jobs.  Employment in construction typically declines this time of year, but the fact that the seasonally-adjusted change was negative implies a larger-than-usual decline in jobs.  Similarly, the seasonally-adjusted decline of 1,100 jobs in Retail Trade (along with the year-over-year decline) indicates that holiday hiring has not been as robust as usual or expected.  Sectors that added jobs in November included Professional & Business Services and Education & Health Services.  Those two “super-sectors” alone have increased by nearly 12,000 over the past twelve months, and have expanded by more than 46,000 jobs since the pre-recession date of December 2007.

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found here:  Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

The Arkansas unemployment rate decreased two-tenths of a percent in August, mirroring the decline that had previously been reported on the national level.  At 5.4%, the state’s unemployment rate is nearing pre-recession levels.  The August unemployment drop was attributable to both an increase in the number of employed (+3,910) and a decline in the number of unemployed (-2,490).

Payroll Employment
The data on nonfarm payrolls showed a monthly increase of 1,700 jobs (seasonally adjusted).   Compared to the previous month, employment was down in the goods producing sectors and retail trade.   Employment was up in most service-providing sectors, with Education and Health Services, in particular, continuing to  expand.

Compared to a year earlier, payroll employment in Arkansas is up 26,800.  Job gains over the past 12 months have been fairly broad-based, with the notable exception of Manufacturing.  In fact, Manufacturing employment is still 6,000 jobs lower than at the employment trough of February 2010, and down 35,400 since the onset of the 2008-09 recession.  Overall employment is now 7,200  (0.6%) above pre-recession levels.

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found here:  Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

The unemployment rate in Arkansas declined by 0.1% in July, bringing the rate back down to where it was in March — 5.6%.  The national unemployment rate in July was 5.3%.

Arkansas’ labor force contracted slightly in July as the number of unemployed dropped (-1,300) by more than the increase in the number of employed (+1,000).  July’s small labor force contraction followed 14 consecutive months of increase.

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 1,200 in July (seasonally adjusted).  Employment in the construction sector showed a particularly sharp increase for the month (+1,800), bringing the 12-month cumulative growth in that sector to 6,800 jobs.  Professional and Business services also showed a robust gain (+1,000).  Several sectors saw job losses in July, including Manufacturing and Wholesale Trade.  Overall, payroll employment over the past 12 months has increased by 28,400 jobs — a growth rate of 2.4%.

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found here:  Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Arkansas’ unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.7% in May.  After having edged down to 5.6% for the first three months of the year, the state’s unemployment rate now stands at the same level as it did in November of 2014.  Compared to a year ago, however, the rate is down one-half of a percentage point.  The national unemployment rate was 5.5% in May.  With rates now in the neighborhood of 5 to 6 percent, unemployment is approaching the “full employment” level and significant further declines are likely to materialize slowly.

Although the unemployment rate was unchanged in May, the number of unemployed increased by 673 — the third consecutive monthly increase.  On a more positive note, the number of employed Arkansans was 972 higher than the previous month.  Over the past 19 months, the employment count from the household survey has increased by 51,521.

Payroll Employment
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 1,300 in May (seasonally adjusted).  Added to the 6,500 increase from the previous month, May’s increase brings employment back to its level of February — offsetting a sharp weather-related drop in March.  Compared to its pre-recession level (from December 2007), Arkansas employment is now up by 2,300 jobs (0.2%).  By comparison, nationwide employment surpassed its pre-recession level in April 2014, and is now up by an additional 2.4%.

The May report showed declines in the major good-producing sectors, along with Transportation & Utilities and Financial Services.  Other service sectors saw employment gains, particularly Education & Health Services.  Since the employment trough of February 2010 only three sectors have shown further net declines:  Mining & Logging, Manufacturing, and Government.  However, many of the sectors that have expanded since then are still registering lower employment totals than before the Great Recession.  Manufacturing and Construction remain the weakest sectors in that regard.  Combined, employment in goods-producing categories (including Mining & Logging) is down 42,600 since December 2007.

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found here:  Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

The latest employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Arkansas Department of Workforce services shows a slight weakening of labor market conditions during March.  Nevertheless, the trends remain positive and March appears to be a weather-related anomaly.

The unemployment rate in Arkansas remained at 5.6% after being revised upward from 5.5% to 5.6% for February.  Nationwide, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%.   The number of unemployed Arkansans increased by 777, the first monthly increase since February 2011.  On the other hand, the number of employed was up by 3,890 and the labor force increased 4,667.  This was the 17th consecutive monthly increase in household employment, and the 11th consecutive month of labor force expansion.

Payroll Survey
Data from the Nonfarm payroll survey showed a contraction of jobs in March, with employment down 6,700 after a downward revision of 1,400 to the February total.  As shown in the table below, the bulk of the job losses were in construction.  According to the news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, the decline in construction took place “as many projects were temporarily shut down due to weather conditions.”  Indeed the National Weather service reported that “It was a near record wet March, with a snowstorm to start the month and severe weather picking up toward the end.

In addition to construction, employment in Retail Trade was also down on a seasonally adjusted basis, reflecting a slower-than-usual start to the spring shopping season.  Notable monthly declines also appeared in the employment data for Professional & Business Services and Leisure & Hospitality Services.  Compared to a year ago, however, employment is up in every major sector except mining and logging, with a total employment increase of 22,200 (1.9%).

With the March decline, Arkansas payroll employment dropped back below it’s pre-recession level, after having slightly exceeded that level in February.

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found here:  Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Today’s report on state level employment and unemployment was another in a recent series of upbeat reports.  The headline was another downtick in the unemployment rate, from 5.6% to 5.5%.  Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate in Arkansas has fallen by one full percentage point.  The national unemployment rate in February was also 5.5%.

The underlying components of the unemployment rate–derived from the household survey–continue to trend in positive directions.  The number of unemployed Arkansans was estimated to have declined by 858 from January to February, and has fallen by more than 10,000 over the past 12 months.  Meanwhile, the number of employed increased by 5,750 for the month and is up by nearly 43,000 since February of 2014.  The strong gains in employment have also driven labor force participation higher.  The labor force was up by 4,900 for the month.

Payroll Employment:
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 5,200 for the month (seasonally adjusted).  The gains were largely attributable to increases in two service sector categories:  Professional & Business Services (+2,100) and Leisure & Hospitality Services (+3,100).  Changes in other sectors were mixed.  Manufacturing employment showed a disappointing loss of jobs (-1,800), but construction employment was up for the fourth consecutive month.   From February 2014 to February 2015, total payroll employment has increased by 29,400 — a growth rate of 2.5%.

Since the employment trough of February 2010, total payroll employment has increased by 61,100 and is now above the pre-recession employment level by 3,700 jobs (0.3%).  By comparison, total employment for the U.S. in February was 2.0% above pre-recession levels.

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found here:  Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.