The December 2009 report on Arkansas employment and unemployment was released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  

The household survey showed a record number of unemployed in Arkansas — 105,408.  That represents about 3500 more unemployed Arkansans in December than there were in November.  The survey also showed that the number of employed declined by 10,550 from November to December (although this decline follows an increase of 10,175 in November).   The unemployment rate rose from 7.4 percent to 7.7 percent.  This is the highest unemployment rate for Arkansas since June 1988.

The payroll survey provided similarly disapointing news.  The number of workers on nonfarm payrolls declined by 3400 in December (seasonally adjusted).  Losses were largest in Trade, Transportation and Utilities (-2200) and Profesional and Business Services (-1900).  Some sectors experienced increases in employment:  for example, Manufacturing employment increased by 1000, jobs in Financial Services were up by 900, and the number of Education and Health workers rose by 800.  The table below summarizes employment changes by sector over the past six months. 

As described in a previous post, the next release of payroll data will include annual benchmark revisions, reflecting more complete information collected in the BLS’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).  Based on the most recent information available, the benchmark revisions will show much larger job losses in Arkansas than were previously reported (particularly in 2009Q2).  The table below reports projected revisions to the payroll data, extended through the end of 2009:

Repeating a cationary note from the previous post :  The actual benchmark revisions to be released by the BLS on March 10 will be calculated using far more detailed methods and more up-to-date information.   Nevertheless, the revisions are likely to be of the general magnitude presented here.

Data on employment and unemployment in Arkansas were released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Overall, the report indicates a continuation of the trends we’ve seen in recent months.   There is no clear inidication of an upturn in employment, but neither is there evidence that the employment situation is deteriorating.  However, buried among the details of the report are some encouraging tidbits.

The household survey showed a decline in the unemployment rate, from 7.6 percent in October to 7.4 percent in November.  More important, the raw numbers that underlie the unemployment rate showed an increase of more than 10,000 in the number of people employed and a decrease of almost 2500 in the number of people unemployed.

The payroll survey showed an increase in jobs for November as well, although the data for October were revised downward to more than offset those gains.  Nevertheless, since March of 2009 nonfarm payrolls have shed only 2,500 jobs —  a decline of about 0.2%.

The sectoral composition of job gains and losses in November showed some interesting features:   Increases were registered in Construction (+1000), Manufacturing (+300), and Transportation (+1100)–three sectors that have been hard-hit during the recession.   In contrast, employment in Education and Health services declined by 1800 jobs in November.  Health services has added 13,000 jobs to the Arkansas economy since the beginning of the recession, but recent budgetary constraints at major hospitals has evidently stalled further expansion in this sector — for now.

Recovery in employment is likely to be a long, slow process.  At this point, the data suggest that we’re still in a period of stabilization.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest report on state employment and unemployment this morning. The obvious headline for Arkansas is that the unemployment rate rose by one-half of a percentage point to 7.6 percent. This is the highest rate for Arkansas in over two decades–clearly not good news. Nevertheless, the state’s unemployment rate remains well below that national average rate of 10.2 percent.

As alarming as the unemployment rate increase appears, one should never become too concerned about a single observation. Indeed, the Arkansas employment data have recently been subject to considerable month-to-month volatility. Recall that the unemployment rate jumped to 7.4 percent in July before falling back to 7.1 percent in August and September. The chart below illustrates a three-month moving average of the unemployment rate, smoothing out some of the monthly variability. By this measure, the rate has been fairly steady at around 7.25 percent since mid-summer.

The data on employment in Arkansas has been similarly volatile. In a post last month, I noted that the household survey and payroll survey were providing mixed signals about employment in September. The household survey showed a gain of 8400 jobs, while the payroll survey showed a decline of 7700 jobs. In the latest report, the September employment figure was revised upward, reducing the August-September job loss to 5300. For October, payroll employment was up by 4200 jobs, resulting in a net loss of only 1100 jobs over the two month period. Meanwhile, the household survey for September was revised upward (now showing an increase of nearly 8600 jobs), while the newly-released number for October showed a decline of 4100 jobs.

The chart below puts some of these monthly changes into context. Both measures of employment showed sharp declines from about October 2008 until March 2009. While falling slightly since then, Arkansas employment has evidently stabilized. We continue to see month-to-month movement in both series (some of which is smoothed out by considering a simple average of the two), but no significant upward or downward trend is discernable.

October’s increase in the unemployment rate will surely generate alarmist headlines, but overall the October employment report shows a continuation of the labor market performance we’ve been observing since spring: sluggish but not deteriorating.

One should always be cautious about placing too much emphasis on data for a single month, but the state employment report for August (released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics) includes several encouraging signs for Arkansas.  Among the highlights of the report:

• The unemployment rate in Arkansas fell by three-tenths of a percent to 7.1%.  The Arkansas unemployment rate is now 2.6 percentage points lower than the national average.  Arkansas was one of only 16 states to experience an unemployment rate decline.
• Underlying the decline in the unemployment rate was a decrease in the number of people unemployed.  In July, Arkansas unemployment rolls topped 100,000 for the first time.  The August report shows that  number falling to 96.5 thousand.
• Nonfarm payroll employment rose slightly in August.  Arkansas was one of only 8 states to experience an increase.  Moreover, the data for July were revised upward to show a net gain for that month as well.  (Arkansas was one of only 3 states to experience employment gains in both July and August).
• Employment in goods producing sectors remains weak, but some of the key service-providing industries continue to show reslience.  For July and August, net job gains were recorded in Professional and Business Services, Education and Health Services, Other Services, and Government. 
• The payroll employment data confirm a trend observed in a previous post:  After declining by 26.4 thousand between October 2008 and March 2009, the employment situation in Arkansas is stablizing.  Since March, employment has been approximately flat, with a net increase of 600 jobs through August.

– Michael Pakko