Still catching up with delayed data releases, the Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday came out with state-level data on employment and unemployment for February. The headline news was that the unemployment rate was unchanged from January at 4.4%. It was previously reported that the U.S. unemployment rate increased from 4.3% to 4.4% from January to February, then reverted back to 4.3% in March. The differences between Arkansas and U.S. unemployment rates are tiny, and nowhere near the level of statistical significance.
The underlying data from the household survey are a bit more interesting: After rising steadily through nearly all of 2024 and 2025, the number of unemployed declined slightly in February. In conjunction with a similarly-small decline in December, the rising number of unemployed appears to have leveled-off. Meanwhile, the number of employed continued to increase in February, reaching a new record high.
The steady increase in the labor force has been outpacing the population growth rate, resulting in an increasing trend for the labor force participation rate. In it’s press release, the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services pointed out that February’s participation rate (59.2%) was the highest reading for that measure since October of 2012.
Payroll Employment
From the establishment survey, Nonfarm Payroll Employment was little changed in February (seasonally adjusted data). Sectors with declining employment included Durable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation and Utilities, and Other Services. Notable increases were recorded for Construction, Wholesale Trade, Education& Health, and Leisure & Hospitality Services. The gains and losses largely cancelled out, with the total declining by 100 jobs.
Over the past twelve months, the Arkansas economy added 9,100 payroll jobs, representing an increase of 0.7%. Over the same period, U.S. payroll employment expanded by only 0.1%. The year-over-year data for Arkansas show strong gains for Leisure & Hospitality Services, Education & Health Services, and Professional & Business Services. Declining sectors include Manufacturing (both durable and nondurable goods), Financial Services, Information Services and Government.
Since the pre-COVID peak of February 2020, Arkansas payrolls have expanded by 83,700, or 6.6%. Over the same period, U.S. payroll employment has grown by 4.0%.
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Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.