After delays associated with the federal government shutdown in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services today released new employment and unemployment data for Arkansas. The household survey that is used to generate statistics on unemployment rates and participation rates was not conducted in October, so there will be a gap in those series. Today’s release included new data from the payroll survey for October and November, as well as revised data for September.

The headline news was an increase in the Arkansas unemployment rate from 3.9% in September to 4.1% in November. Over the same period, the U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 4.6%.

The increase in the Arkansas unemployment rate was driven by relatively large increases in the number of unemployed workers in the survey. The number of unemployed rose by 1,891 in September and by another 3,634 from September to November, for a total of 5,525 over the three-month period. While this surge in unemployment is notable, we also saw increases in household employment. Employment rose by 1,546 in September and then by another 4,999 from September to November. As a result of these increases, the labor force expanded by 12,070 over the three-month period.

The expansion the labor force also resulted in a higher labor-force participation rate for the state, increasing from 58.5 in September to 58.8 in November.

Payroll Employment
The establishment survey data also showed increases in employment, with nonfarm payrolls expanding by 4,200 in September, 2,300 in October, and 900 in November (seasonally adjusted data). Employment gains in that three month period amounted to an annualized growth rate of 2.2%.

Nearly every major sector expanded over the August-November period, with the exception of Information Services, Other Services, and Government. The largest gains were in Leisure & Hospitality Services and Professional & Business Services. Employment in Health Services was uncharacteristically weak, increasing by only 400 jobs over the three-month period (with employment in Private education services down 300).

Over the most recent 12 months, total nonfarm payrolls expanded by 17,700—a percentage rate of 1.3%. Over the same period, U.S. payroll employment grew at a rate of 0.6%. Since the pre-pandemic peak of February 2020, Arkansas employment has increased by 7.6% and U.S. employment has increased by only 4.8%.

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Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

The Arkansas Division of Workforce Services released new data on household employment and unemployment today, showing that the state’s unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point in September, rising to 3.9%. The U.S. unemployment rate had previously been reported as rising from 4.3% to 4.4% in September. The federal government shutdown has delayed many data releases, even cancelling some. The new data for September was collected prior to the government shutdown, but was delayed in publication until this week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is not scheduled to announce state-level employment and unemployment data until Thursday (December 11).

Underlying the increase in the unemployment rate was a surge in the number of unemployed, up by 1,891. This was the largest monthly increase since the spring of 2023, and adds to the increasing trend in unemployment that has generally prevailed since the spring of 2024. The number of employed Arkansans was also higher in September, increasing by 1,546. As a result, the labor force rose by 3.437.

With the increase in the labor force, Arkansas’ labor force participation rate ticked higher, reaching 58.5% in September.

Note: As is the usual practice, the data from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services included only not-seasonally adjusted figures for nonfarm payroll employment. Many of the monthly changes for September were attributable to seasonal factors, with schools starting back up in the fall (increasing Education and Government employment) and the end of the summer travel season (decreasing Leisure & Hospitality employment). We will report on the seasonally adjusted data when they are released by the BLS later this week.

Despite an increase in the state’s unemployment rate, the employment report for August did not indicate weak labor market conditions. Taken as a whole, the data for August suggest ongoing growth in employment and jobs.

Mirroring a 0.1 percentage point increase in the national data (from 4.2% to 4.3%), Arkansas’ unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.8% in August.

After five months of holding steady at 3.7%, the increase might be interpreted as significant. In reality, unemployment has been slowly and steadily rising over the course of 2025. In August the unemployment rate went from being rounded down to 3.7% to being rounded up to 3.8%. Moreover, the fact that unemployment remains below 4.0% is a sign that Arkansas labor markets continue to be generally healthy. That perspective is reinforced by the continuing growth trends that we see in household employment and the labor force. The number of employed increased by 1,683 in August and is up 8,665 over the past 12 months. The labor force expanded by 2,480 in August, with cumulative growth over the past 12 months of 13,554.

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 2,500 jobs in August (seasonally adjusted). Seasonal effects are important for interpreting statistics for August because we see employment in both private and public education return to school-year norms. After accounting for this type of recurring pattern, we still see fairly strong growth in the data for August. Sectors that shown notable increases include Retail Trade, Transportation & Utilities, and Financial Services. The only weakness in the sectoral breakdown of employment were small declines in Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale trade and Professional & Business Services. The decline in Professional & Business services was entirely attributable to the subcategory of Administrative & Support Services, which includes temporary workers and is often quite variable from month to month.

Compared to a year ago, payroll employment is up by 18,300 jobs—about 1.0%. For the U.S., job growth over the past 12 months has also totaled 1.0%. [Note: the data do not reflect the preliminary benchmark revisions that were released last week. Final benchmark data will not be incorporated into the current series until January 2026.]

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Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Revisions to employment data have recently been the focus of an inordinate amount of attention. The latest story on this topic is the preliminary benchmark revisions to Nonfarm Payroll Employment that were announced this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Annual benchmark revisions are primarily the result of incorporating data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). As suggested by the word “census” in the title, this data set is a comprehensive summary of national employment, based on data from state unemployment insurance programs. Benchmarking the payroll data introduces significant new, more accurate information to the series on current employment.

To complicate the story further, the actual benchmark revisions will not take place until early 2026. The data released this morning represent preliminary estimates of the revisions. The actual benchmark revision will be based on revised data from the QCEW which will be available at the end of this year. Accordingly, month-to-month reports on nonfarm payroll employment will not be affected by today’s estimates, and there is often a considerable difference between the preliminary and actual benchmark revisions.

With those provisos in mind, we can evaluate the potential impact of the preliminary benchmarked data on recent trends, assuming that the QCEW data revisions between now and the end of the year will be minimal.

The preliminary benchmark revisions announced this morning affect estimates for March 2025. For the entire U.S., the preliminary benchmark suggests a downward revision of 911,000 jobs—amounting to 0.6% of total March employment. The preliminary benchmark revision for Arkansas is a downward revision of 11,300 jobs, or 0.8% of total state employment.

The figure below illustrates the magnitude of the potential revisions, assuming that the cumulative revisions reported for March 2025 were spread across the previous 12 months, with data for March 2024 unaffected. Data for April 2025 and beyond is simply extrapolated from the hypothesized revision to March data.

These hypothetical revised series are intended to be suggestive only. The actual benchmark revisions will not be released or incorporated into current data until the numbers for January 2026 are reported next year. But if the preliminary numbers hold, these hypothetical calculations indicate that employment growth over the past 15 months has been considerably lower than has been previously reported. For July 2024 through July 2025, Arkansas nonfarm payrolls have been reported to expand by 18,000 jobs or 1.3%. With the hypothesized revisions, that growth slows to only 9,800 jobs, amounting to 0.7%. For the same period, U.S. employment growth might be revised down by as much as half—from current estimates of 1.0% to a revised 0.5%.

For more information, see:

• https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prebmk.nr0.htm (U.S. data)
• https://www.bls.gov/news.release/presae.nr0.htm (State and area data)