The AEDI Retail Sales index for Arkansas shows a sharp weakening of consumer spending in the second quarter of 2022. The index for total Retail Trade and Food Service Sales declined by 5.5% from the first quarter of the year, and was down 4.0% from a year earlier. The official census bureau measure for the U.S. increased by 0.5% for the quarter, and was up 2.2% from the previous year.
One possible mitigating factor, as mentioned in our analysis of first-quarter data, the recent change in the time allowed for motor vehicles to be registered after purchase (from 30 days to 60 days) has altered the relationship between sales-date and when the tax revenue is reported. As a result, our methodology might have overestimated sales in late 2023 and underestimated 2024 sales. Our data show that spending at Motor Vehicles and Parts Dealers was down by 10% in the second quarter. Nevertheless, Retail Trade and Food Service Sales Excluding Autos was down 3.9%.
As shown in the table below, consumer spending appears to have fallen across all retail sectors. The largest quarterly decline was in the motor vehicles component, but several other sectors show notable declines as well.
Sales at Electronics and Appliance Stores were higher in the second quarter than the first, but still down sharply from a year earlier. The only spending categories that were higher than in the second quarter of 2023 were Food and Beverage Stores and Food Services and Drinking Places. In both cases, the year-over-year increases were significantly smaller than their nationwide counterparts in the Census Data.
