A forum for information and analysis on the Arkansas economy

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – June 2022

The latest report on metro area employment and unemployment was just about as un-newsworthy as the state-level report that came out two weeks ago.  Unemployment rates were little changed from May to June, with up-ticks of one-tenth percent in Fayetteville, Fort Smith, and Jonesboro; and a one-tenth down-tick in Pine Bluff.  Unemployment rates have remained remarkably low and stable.  In the past six months, the only cumulative changes of more than one-tenth of a percentage point were in Memphis (-0.4) and Texarkana (-0.3).  Compared to June 2022, unemployment rates are down by about one percentage point across the state.  Unemployment rates in Memphis and Hot Springs have fallen the most in the past 12 months, attributable to the fact that rates in those metro areas were higher than others during the pandemic-recession.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment
Changes in nonfarm payroll employment were mixed across metro areas.  Six of the eight metro areas saw increases in employment, with the largest gains in Pine Bluff (+1.0%)  and Jonesboro (+0.7%).  Employment in Little Rock declined by 0.4% and was down slightly in Fort Smith.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Compared to a year ago, employment growth has been relatively strong in all metro areas.  The highest growth rates have been in Fayetteville (+5.3%), Memphis (+3.2%) and Jonesboro (+3.0%)  Those three metro areas are also the only three where total employment was higher in June 2022 than it was in February 2020, just prior to the pandemic-recession.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – June 2022

Arkansas labor market conditions were little-changed in June.  The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.2%, paralleling the national unemployment rate, which was unchanged at 3.6%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The number of unemployed workers crept slightly higher again in June, rising by 688 compared to the May figures.  The number of unemployed has increased for three consecutive months, rising by approximately 2,000 since April.  The number of  employed rose by 2,050 in June pushing the labor force up by 2,738.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4,100 in June, recovering from a downwardly revised decline of 4,400 in the previous month (seasonally adjusted data).  Solid job-growth was seen throughout the goods-producing sector and in Trade, Transportation and Utilities.  The only sectors where employment declined in June was Professional and Business Services, Leisure and Hospitality Services, Other Services and Government.  The decline in Government employment was concentrated in the state and local government, associated with employment in education.  The Department of Workforce Services also cited declines in temporary workers at schools as contributing to the decline in the Administrative & Support Services component of Professional and Business Services.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Construction employment increased by 1,100 jobs, but remains slightly below the level of a year ago.  Retail Trade, Government Services,and Mining & Logging are also down from June 2021.  Total employment over the past 12 months has increased by 32,500, representing an increase of 2.5%.  Gains have been small in recent months, however.  The cumulative increase in employment since January has been only 500 jobs.  Compared to the business-cycle peak of February 2020, Arkansas employment is up by 9,200 (1.0%).  A comparable calculation for the United States shows that the nation has yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels, remaining 0.3% below the employment total of February 2020.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

# # #

Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE. 

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – May 2022

The latest report on metro area employment and unemployment last week showed little change in unemployment rates across the state.  The data for May showed unemployment rates unchanged from April in six of the state’s metropolitan areas, with rates ticking up one-tenth of a percentage point in Jonesboro and Pine Bluff.  Compared to a year ago, rates are down by more than a full percentage point in all metros.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

A comparison across metro areas shows that relative unemployment rates have returned to a pattern similar to before the pandemic/recession.  Comparing May 2022 with May 2019, the relative ranking of unemployment rate is essentially unchanged, with lower rates today in Northwest Arkansas, Fort Smith and Jonesboro.  In the remaining metro areas, unemployment rates are slightly higher than they were three years ago.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

County Unemployment Rates
A comparison of unemployment rates across counties for May 2022 indicates that the relative rates across regions of the state have similarly returned to a pattern reminiscent of before the pandemic/recession.  Rates are lowest in the north and west, with Benton and Washington Counties having the lowest rates in the state, 2.2%.  The highest unemployment rates are in the south and east, where Chicot County has the statewide high of 7.4% and Ashley, Mississippi, and Phillips Counties all having unemployment rates of at least 6%.

As is the case with comparisons across metro areas, the counties with the highest unemployment rates also tend to be those where rates are higher than before the pandemic/recession.  Unemployment rates in May 2022 exceeded rates of May 2019 by more than a full percentage point in Ashley, Desha, Mississippi, and Phillips Counties.

Metro Payroll Employment
On the nonfarm payroll side of the employment report there was somewhat more variation among metro areas.  Hot Springs, Jonesboro and Pine Bluff showed monthly increases of at least 0.5%.  Employment was up slightly in Little Rock, down somewhat in Memphis and Texarkana, and unchanged in Fayetteville and Fort Smith.  All metro areas have shown solid growth over the most recent 12 months, with growth rates ranging from 1.3% in Pine Bluff to 5.3% in Northwest Arkansas.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Relative to the cyclical peak of February 2020, employment has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels in Fort Smith, Hot Springs, Pine Bluff and Texarkana.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Arkansas Retail Sales – 2022:Q1

The latest data on AEDI’s measure of Arkansas Retail Trade and Food Service Sales indicates that consumer spending remained robust in the first three months of the year. The typical seasonal slowdown in January and February was somewhat sharper than usual, so the seasonally adjusted measure of Retail Sales showed small month-to-month declines (-1.3% in January and -0.6% in February). Sales in March rebounded sharply, however, with  seasonally-adjusted retail sales rising 4.6%. Year-over-year growth is somewhat distorted by events last year. In particular, severe winter weather in February 2021 interrupted an acceleration in spending that resumed the following month. If we consider quarterly averages, growth from 2021:Q1 to 2022:Q1 was 10.8%.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance & Administration, Arkansas Economic Development Institute

A comparison with U.S. data shows that Arkansas retail sales continue to trend higher than the national average. Calculating from a pre-pandemic base period of 2019:Q4, Arkansas retail sales had cumulatively risen 33.5% as of March 2022. For the U.S., the comparable calculation is an increase of 28.2%.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance & Administration, Arkansas Economic Development Institute, U.S. Census Bureau

The table below shows year-over-year growth rates for the major categories of spending in the retail sales statistics over the past two years.  Growth figures are reported for first-quarter averages. By this metric, retail sales increased 15.4% in 2021 and 10.8% in 2022. Data for the U.S. show a similar pattern, with double-digit growth in both years.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance & Administration, Arkansas Economic Development Institute, U.S. Census Bureau

Growth rates among various sectors differed considerably, reflecting various rates of recovery from the 2020 pandemic/recession. The fastest-growth sector from 2021 to 2022 has been Gasoline Stations, with the increases driven exclusively by higher prices. (According to state gasoline tax statistics, the number of gasoline gallons sold in 2022:Q1 was down 0.1% from 2021:Q1.) Some of the slower-growing sectors (e.g. Health and Personal Care; Sporting Goods, etc.) has previously shown significant increases in 2021.

Retail Sales and Inflation
Of course, gasoline is not the only good that has been rising in price. Consumer price inflation was 8.0% from 2021:Q1 to 2022:Q1.  Consequently, if we adjust total retail sales for the all-items CPI, the increase in “real” (inflation adjusted) spending over that period was approximately 2.6%. After inflation adjustment, the rising trend in spending over the second half of 2021 turns out to represent little if any real growth.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance & Administration, Arkansas Economic Development Institute, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

In some sectors, adjusting for inflation can have important implications for longer term trends. For example, nominal spending at Food and Beverage Stores appears to have permanently shifted higher in the post-pandemic era. After adjusting for Consumer Prices on Food at Home, grocery and liquor store sales appear to be trending back toward pre-pandemic spending patterns.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance & Administration, Arkansas Economic Development Institute, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Similarly, rapidly rising prices for new and used automobiles has affected the nominal vs. real behavior of the Motor Vehicles and Parts component of retail sales. In nominal terms, this component has risen 30.0% from 2020:Q1 to 2022:Q1. The CPI for New & Used Autos, however, rose 27.1% over the same period. Consequently, real spending on motor vehicles and parts is now only slightly higher than at the start of the pandemic/recession.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance & Administration, Arkansas Economic Development Institute, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

# # #

Documentation of Methodology is available here: Arkansas Retail Sales—A New Data Set from AEDI.
NOTE:  As of the release of data for December 2021, the seasonal adjustment procedure has been updated from the crude regression-based approach used in earlier analyses.  With data covering over four years, it is now possible to implement more sophisticated techniques. Specifically, we have implemented a version of the Census X-13 ARIMA model to seasonally adjust the data by sector.

Data for Arkansas Retail and Food Service Sales for July 2017 through March 2022 are available in an Excel Spreadsheet:  Arkansas-Retail-Sales-March-2022. The data set includes statewide aggregates and components, both seasonally adjusted and not-seasonally adjusted. County-level data for Total Retail and Food Service Sales excluding Gasoline are available on a not-seasonally adjusted basis.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – May 2022

Labor markets in Arkansas continue to display tight conditions with unemployment near historic lows, yet payroll employment growth seems to have stalled in the first half of 2022.

The report for May showed the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.2%. The U.S. unemployment rate was also unchanged for the month, remaining at 3.6% (the difference is not statistically significant).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Underlying the unemployment rate calculation: The number of unemployed edged slightly higher (+178) and the number of employed rose by 2,367, resulting in a net gain in the labor force of 2,545.  The increases in the number of employed and in the labor force have been substantial over the first 5 months of the year, but both measures remain well-below pre-pandemic totals.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
In contrast to the measures of employment from the household survey, the payroll side of the employment report indicates that total employment surpassed pre-pandemic levels in November 2021.  However, growth since then has been minimal.  Today’s report showed a monthly decline of 2,300 jobs, and the data for April were revised downward by 1,400 (seasonally adjusted data).  Total nonfarm payroll employment for May stood at 1,307,500, cumulatively down 1,500 jobs since January.  Relative to the previous business cycle peak (February 2020), Arkansas payroll employment is up by 0.9%.  Nationwide employment remains slightly lower than in February 2020–down 0.5%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Although the not-seasonally adjusted data showed a slight increase in payroll employment for May, the typical growth in employment that takes place between January and mid-year has been lackluster.  A breakdown of the seasonally adjusted decline of 2,300 jobs in May shows particularly prominent job-losses in Retail Trade and Health Services–two sectors that were hard-hit during the early phases of the pandemic but which have showed significant recovery since.  Similarly, Leisure and Hospitality services showed a monthly decline after significant progress toward recovery.  Other service-providing sectors showed job gains, including Professional & Business Services and Financial Services.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Most sectors have recovered relative to the pandemic-recession, but Leisure & Hospitality Services and Government (particularly state and local education-related employment) remain below the previous peak of February 2020.

# # #

Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE. 

 

 

 

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – April 2022

The April data for metro are employment and unemployment came out this week showing little change in unemployment rates across Arkansas’ regions.  As shown below, unemployment rates have settled into relatively unchanging levels after falling from pandemic-recession highs.  From March to April, the statewide unemployment rate ticked up one tenth of a percentage point, as did the unemployment rates in Fort Smith, Hot Springs, Jonesboro, Little Rock and Pine Bluff.  The rate in Texarkana declined by one tenth.  Compared to April 2021, unemployment rates are down between 1.1 percentage points (in Northwest Arkansas) to down 2.2% (in Memphis).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Differences remain among metro area unemployment rates.  Rates are the lowest In Northwest Arkansas and Jonesboro, with Fort Smith and Little Rock approximately equal to the statewide average.  Hot Springs, Memphis, Pine Bluff and Texarkana remain higher than either the statewide or national averages.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment showed mixed changes across metro areas in April. Employment was down slightly in Fort Smith, and down 0.3% in both Hot Springs and Jonesboro.  Other metro areas showed increases for the month, with Little Rock registering the largest proportional increase (0.5%).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Compared to a year ago, employment is higher in all of Arkansas’ metro areas, the the fastest growth in Northwest Arkansas (5.8%).  Employment still lags pre-pandemic levels (as of February 2020) in Fort Smith Hot Springs, Pine Bluff and Texarkana.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – April 2022

Although the unemployment rate ticked up a tenth of a point in April, the employment report for Arkansas was generally positive.  Both the household and payroll surveys showed employment growth, and labor force participation rose for the fourth consecutive month.

The unemployment rate ticked up from 3.1% to 3.2% as the number of unemployed increased by 1,133.  The household measure of employment rose by 4,522—the fourth consecutive monthly increase.  Since December, the number employed has risen by 19,806. The labor force expanded by 5,655, increasing the labor force participation rate by 0.2 percentage points to 56.8%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

The Arkansas unemployment rate remains exceptionally low, although the difference between the state’s 3.2% rate and the national unemployment rate of 3.6% is not statistically significant.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment
Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment increased by 2,400 in April (seasonally adjusted).  Most sectors showed gains, with the exception of Construction (which may have been affected by poor weather conditions), Retail Trade, and Professional & Business Services.  The job losses in Professional & Business services were primarily in the category of Administrative & Support Services.  Other service providing sectors showed strong gains, including Health Care & Social Assistance, and Accommodation & Food Services.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Compared to a year earlier, Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment was up 37,400 jobs in April.  The net gain relative to the previous business-cycle peak (February 2020) is now up to 12,600.

# # #

Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE. 

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – March 2022

The employment report for March showed the Arkansas unemployment rate unchanged at 3.1% and a negligible change in total payroll employment.

The headline unemployment rate was unchanged, although the number of unemployed dropped by approximately 750 and employment increased by 5,225.  This was the third consecutive month that household employment increased by more than 5,000.  Driven by the higher employment, the Arkansas labor force expanded by 4,508 in March and has increased by 13,500 since December of 2021.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

The U.S. unemployment rate had previously been reported to have declined from 3.8% in February to 3.6% in March.  Although the Arkansas unemployment rate is still one-half percentage point lower than the national average, the difference has narrowed to the point that there is no statistically significant difference between the state and national rates.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

As a result of the strong household employment growth of the past three months, Arkansas’ labor force participation rate has risen from 56.2% in December 2021 to 56.6% in March.  Despite the recent recovery, the participation rate remains nearly two percentage points lower than in February 2020.  The participation rate for the U.S. has also been sluggish, but is down only one percent from the previous cyclical peak.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note, however, that the household measure of employment continues to show significantly slower cumulative growth since the onset of the pandemic-recession than the payroll measure (see below).  To the extent that household employment statistics are understating employment growth, the state’s labor force participation rate could be biased downward.

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment was little-change in March declining by 300 jobs (seasonally adjusted).  Sectors with employment declines included Education and Health Services, Professional and Business Services, and Retail Trade.  Within Education & Health, job losses were entirely attributable to Health Care and Social Assistance.  The decline in Professional & Business Services was concentrated in Administrative & Support services.  Other sectors saw employment increases, including Transportation & Utilities, and Leisure and Hospitality Services.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

Over the past 12 months, the only sectors showing net employment declines are Health Services, Other Services, and Mining & Logging.  Compared the peak month of February 2020, most sectors are now in positive territory (or close) with the notable exceptions of Leisure and Hospitality Services and Government (where the declines are associated with state and local public education).

Although the pace of payroll employment growth has slowed in Arkansas, the cumulative change since the onset of the pandemic-recession is slightly positive (+0.9%).  In comparison, U.S. payroll employment remains 1.0% lower than in February 2020.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

Household vs. Payroll Employment
Recent strong gains in the household measure of employment have brought the year-over-year increases in the two measures of employment close to parity:  From March 2021, household employment is up 31,600 and payroll employment is up 35,300.  Nevertheless, the household measure has yet to show significant recovery from the pandemic-recession downturn. Since April 2020, payroll employment has expanded by 140,400 and household employment by only 59,908.

# # #

Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE. 

 

 

 

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – February 2022

The latest employment report for Arkansas shows another decline in the unemployment rate, with the rate falling from 3.2% in January to 3.1% in February.  The Arkansas unemployment rate was previously reported to be as low as 3.1% back in December, but that low-point was revised away.  With the new, revised data set, February’s rate sets a new record low for the series.  Arkansas was one of nine states that set new record lows in February. The U.S. unemployment rate was previously reported to have declined 0.2 percentage points to 3.8% in February.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The underlying components of the unemployment rate showed the number of unemployed down by 459 and the number of employed up by 5,028. The large increase in employment raised the labor force estimate by 4,569.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Over the past year, the household survey shows an increase in employment of over 28,000; however, by this measure, employment in Arkansas remains more than 22,000 below the peak of February 2020. In this regard, the employment estimates from the household survey are showing a considerably different view than the payroll survey (more below).

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment in February was essentially unchanged from the previous month.  On a seasonally adjusted basis, payroll employment declined by 500 jobs (about 0.04%).  The monthly change was predominated by a decline in Business and Professional Services.  The drop was entirely accounted for in the category of Administrative & Support, which includes temporary workers. Other sectors showed healthy gains, including Manufacturing, Retail Trade, Transportation & Utilities, Health Services, and Leisure & Hospitality services.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Over the past year, nonfarm payroll employment has expanded by 46,100 jobs, and is now 12,800 higher than at the peak of February 2020.  As mentioned above, these numbers differ considerably from employment as estimated by the household survey.  Household employment dropped by only 5.8% from February to April 2020, while payroll employment declined by 10.0%.  Since then, household employment has shown considerably slower growth. Indeed, as illustrated in the figure below, the two measures of employment have switched in relative magnitude, with the payroll employment estimate recently running higher than the household estimate.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

There are differences in the coverage of the two employment series that could conceivably account for their differing patterns of behavior.  First, the household survey is typically higher than the payroll survey because the former includes agricultural workers as well as self-employed and workers in private households.  The relatively slow growth of household employment might indicate declines in these categories of employment.  Another difference is that the payroll survey treats multiple job-holders as multiple jobs, whereas the household survey counts the worker only as employed or unemployed.  Hence, a dramatic increase in multiple job holders could help explain the higher growth path for nonfarm payroll employment.

It seems unlikely that these factors can account for the divergent growth paths. Due to the larger sampling errors and a dependence on modeling, the state-level estimates of household employment are generally subject to greater uncertainty.  Until more information is incorporated and data are revised again next year, the data from the payroll survey should be considered more reliable.

# # #

Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE. 

 

 

 

 

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Arkansas Retail Sales – 2021

The final data for 2021 are in: Arkansas Retail Sales soared in the spring, remained strong through mid-year, and ended with a fourth quarter surge.  On an annual average basis, Arkansas retail sales rose 17.6% from 2020 to 2021, compared to an increase of 19.3% in the nationwide data.  On a fourth-quarter to fourth-quarter basis, the increase was 17.4% compared to a 17.1% increase for the nation.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Arkansas Economic Development Institute, U.S. Census Bureau

As shown in the table below, the increase in sales in 2021 included all major retail sectors, with only Food and Beverage Stores and General Merchandise stores showing less than double-digit gains.  The 2021 surge followed a relatively strong sales year for Arkansas in 2020. Cumulatively, from the fourth quarter of 2019 through the fourth quarter of 2021, Arkansas retail sales were up 28.5%, compared to 21.6% in the U.S. data.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Arkansas Economic Development Institute, U.S. Census Bureau

Data for NAICS sector 447, Gasoline Stations, uses data for gasoline sales from the state’s motor fuel tax (gasoline is not subject to sales tax).  In addition, the treatment of automobiles in local sales tax collections means that sector 441, Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers, tends to overstate the sales that translate to county-level totals for that sector.  Therefore, in order to compare retail sales across counties it is useful to consider Retail Sales excluding Gasoline and Autos.  Statewide, this aggregate increased by 27.0% from the fourth quarter of 2019 through the fourth quarter of 2021.  The map below shows that increases for counties across the state varied considerably.

Although retail sales growth from 2019 through 2020 tended to be strong throughout the state, cumulative growth for the two years through 2021 tended to be higher in the northern and western parts of the state, and somewhat slower in the South and East.  There is also some tendency for counties that are mostly or completely rural to have experienced higher growth rates than those that are considered mostly urban.

As shown in the chart below, the downturn in sales that is prominent in the U.S. data for April 2020 is only visible for mostly-urban counties in Arkansas. Moreover, the rapid growth of retail sales in 2020 and 2021 is more prominent for rural counties than for urban counties.  In part, these patterns reflect the nature of the economic sectors that were affected by pandemic-related closures, but the patterns also reflect the increased prominence of online sales during the pandemic.  Urban counties with active brick-and-mortar retail sectors tended to lose sales to more rural counties, as sales tax remittances are directed to the county of residence, rather than the county in which the retail outlet is located.  To the extent that e-commerce continues to represent an increasing share of total retail sales, this pattern is likely to persist.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Arkansas Economic Development Institute

# # #

Documentation of Methodology is available here: Arkansas Retail Sales—A New Data Set from AEDI.
NOTE:  In this release of data for December 2021, the seasonal adjustment procedure has been updated from the crude regression-based approach used in earlier analyses.  With data now covering over four years, it is now possible to implement more sophisticated techniques.  Specifically, we have implemented a version of the Census X-13 ARIMA model to seasonally adjust the data by sector.

Data for Arkansas Retail and Food Service Sales for July 2017 through December 2021 are available in an Excel Spreadsheet:  Arkansas-Retail-Sales-December-2021.  The data set includes statewide aggregates and components, both seasonally adjusted and not-seasonally adjusted. County-level data for Total Retail and Food Service Sales excluding Gasoline are available on a not-seasonally adjusted basis.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Arkansas Economic Forecast Conference – Nov. 10th, 2022

LOGOS

Mark your calendar to join the Little Rock Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, in partnership with the Arkansas Economic Development Institute, for the 2022 Arkansas Economic Forecast Conference.
Date: Thurs., Nov. 10, 2022
Time: 7:30 – 9:30 a.m.
 

Click Here for More Information

Special Reports: Impact of Covid-19 on the Arkansas Economy

Arkansas Consumer Spending in 2020
One of the most significant and unexpected features of the Arkansas economy during the COVID-19 pandemic has been the robust behavior of consumer spending…
Read more…

Leisure and Hospitality Industries in Arkansas–2020
Of all the sectors of the economy hat have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, industries in the Leisure and Hospitality category have been among the hardest-hit…
Read more…

Forecast Update (July)
“Incoming data have continued to show a more rapid recovery from the COVID-19 shutdowns than previously expected.”
Read more…

Forecast Update (June)
Information since May has suggested that Arkansas has not been as severely impacted as other parts of the country, and that the sharp declines in national employment have abated.
Read more…

Forecast Update (May)
“The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to be more rapid and more severe than initially expected… In this updated report we present new projections for the Arkansas economy.”
Read more…

Forecast Update (April)
“In this note we update that forecast with new estimates of the magnitude of the downturn. We also update and extend our previous guidance on how the forecast is likely to impact sales tax receipts of local governments.”
Read more …

Implications for Local Government Sales Tax Collections
“In this note, we focus on consumer spending and the outlook for sales tax collections by county and municipal governments.” Read more…

Arkansas Economic Outlook (March)
“It appears that a dramatic downturn in economic activity over the remainder of 2020 is unavoidable for the nation and for Arkansas.”  Read more…

 

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
AWSOM Powered