A forum for information and analysis on the Arkansas economy

Metro Area Employment & Unemployment – October 2021

Today’s report on metro area employment showed that the positive developments seen in the state-level report carried over to all of Arkansas’ metro areas.  Unemployment declined and payroll employment expanded.

The statewide unemployment rate had previously been reported as declining by a remarkable 0.3 percentage points to 3.7%.  Unemployment rates in all eight of Arkansas’ metro areas reflected the lower unemployment, with rates falling by 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points.  Rates are considerably lower than a year ago, and are generally near pre-pandemic levels.  Unemployment rates are lower than in February 2020 in Texarkana, Fort Smith, and the Fayetteville MSA.  Memphis, Texarkana and Little Rock continue to experience higher unemployment rates than before the economic downturn, but even in those metro areas rates are elevated by less than a percentage point.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Metropolitan Area Estimates

News from the payroll survey was similarly upbeat: employment increased in five metro areas and decreased in none.  Gains were particularly notable in Jonesboro (+1,800), Fayetteville (+900), and Texarkana (+500).  All eight metro areas have shown positive employment growth over the past 12 months, and two—Jonesboro and Fayetteville—now show higher employment levels than before the pandemic.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – October 2021

The state employment report for October included several positive developments.  Unemployment dropped sharply and nonfarm payroll employment showed a healthy gain.

The headline news was a drop in the unemployment rate from 4.0% in September to 3.7% in October.  The national unemployment rate declined from 4.8% to 4.6% from September to October.  The BLS news release announcing today’s data noted that both the drop in Arkansas’ unemployment rate and the spread between the state and national unemployment rates were statistically significant.  At 3.7%, Arkansas’ unemployment rate is down 0.1 percentage point from the 3.8% rate of February 2020.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Underlying the decline in the unemployment rate was a sharp decrease in the number of unemployed, which was down by 3,756 in October following a drop of 2,950 (revised) in September.  The household survey showed a small decline in the number of employed, down 374.  The labor force contracted by the sum of the declines in employed and unemployed: down 4,130.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 6,700 jobs in October, an increase of 0.5%.  Nationwide, payrolls expanded by 0.4% for the month.  Arkansas payrolls remain 1.2% lower than in the pre-pandemic month of February 2020, while U.S. payroll employment was down 2.8% over the same period.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

The increase in Arkansas payroll employment was distributed across every private-employment sector, with the only decline registered in Government employment (primarily local government).  Sectors posting strong gains included Leisure & Hospitality (+1,700), Transportation & Utilities (+1,600), Education & Health Services (+1,000) and Durable Goods Manufacturing (+800).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Most sectors show employment levels well-above a year ago, and several are showing net increases relative to pre-pandemic levels.  Durable Goods Manufacturing, in particular has shown consistent growth and is now employing 6,500 more workers than in February 2020 (an increase of 9.6%.  Manufacturing of Nondurable Goods, on the other hand, has shown persistent declines over the course of the economic expansion.  The sectors that were hardest-hit during the pandemic—-including Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Services, and Government—remain well below pre-pandemic peaks.

Household vs. Payroll Employment
The two sources of employment data have shown remarkably differing patterns of employment growth over the past two years, but have converged to show similar net-changes since the last business cycle peak.  As shown in the figure below, the payroll survey indicated a drop of nearly 10% from February to April of 2020, with a sharp initial recovery and gradual convergence toward its pre-pandemic level.  The data from the household survey, on the other hand, showed a much smaller initial decline, displays an incredible 4.2% jump for December 2020 and a trend of declining employment since then.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The data from the payroll survey is generally considered more accurate during normal times, and the household survey appears to have had more pandemic-related disruptions over the past several months.  As a percent of pre-pandemic employment, both measures are now indicating similar magnitudes of decline, -1.2% in the payroll data and -1.3% in the household data.  An implication of this convergence is that we have some degree of confidence in the net change in labor force participation.  Although the unemployment rate has returned to pre-pandemic levels, the labor pool from which it is calculated has declined from 58.3% of the population to 57.0%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, calculations by Arkansas Economic Development Institute

JOLTS Data for Arkansas
In addition to the monthly report on state-level employment and unemployment, the BLS today also released an update to its first-ever report on state-level Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) results from last month.  For Arkansas, the new data for September showed significant increases in Total Separations, as well as in the subcategory of Layoffs & Discharges.  The other specific category of Separations, Quits, hit an all-time high in September, both nationally and here in Arkansas.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

Job Openings were down by 5.1% in Arkansas, compared to a 1.8% decline for the U.S.  Nevertheless, the number of unemployed persons per job opening held relatively steady at 0.6% in Arkansas and declined 0.1 percentage point to 0.7% in the national data.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), calculations by the Arkansas Economic Development Institute.

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Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Little Rock Regional Economic Briefing

 

Little Rock Regional Economic Briefing – 2021

Thank you to all the attendees and participants at this year’s Regional Economic Briefing.  The links below can be used to access the presentation slides for the National and State economic outlook presentations.

    – Kevin Kliesen:    The U.S. Economic Outlook

    – Michael Pakko:  The Arkansas Economic Outlook

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Little Rock Regional Economic Briefing

Little Rock Regional Economic Briefing2021

Please join the Little Rock Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and the Arkansas Economic Development Institute on Thursday, November 17th, for a regional economic briefing for business leaders, educators, community development practitioners and others interested in the economy.

During this virtual presentation, you will hear an update on economic conditions and the outlook for the region and nation:

    • Kevin Kliesen, St. Louis Fed research officer and business economist, will discuss national conditions.
    • Michael Pakko, Arkansas Economic Development Institute chief economist and state economic forecaster, will discuss the Arkansas economic outlook.

The program will include a welcome from Robert Hopkins, senior vice president and regional executive of the Little Rock Branch, and a Q&A session following the presentations.

There is no charge to attend, but registration is required by Nov. 15.

Questions? Contact Julie Kerr at julie.a.kerr@stls.frb.org or 501-324-8296.

Date:  Thursday, Nov. 17, 2021
Time:  8 – 10 a.m.
Location:  Virtual

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Arkansas Retail Sales – July & August 2021

The most recent information from our Retail Trade and Food Service Sales data show that consumers maintained a summer of soaring spending during July and August.  Compared to a year earlier, the July-August average was up 15.6% in Arkansas.  In the national Retail Sales data from the Census Bureau, consumer spending was up 15.2% over the same time span.  Relative to pre-pandemic levels, the summer’s retail sales figures are even more remarkable.  Compared to July-August of 2019, the figures for this past summer were up 25.8% in Arkansas  and 18.7% nationwide.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Arkansas Economic Development Institute

A breakdown of these growth rates by industry group shows that the increased spending is across-the-board.  The smallest increases from 2020 to 2021 were sales at Food and Beverage Stores — up only 2.6% in Arkansas and 4.6% in the U.S. data.  The largest increases were in spending at Gasoline Stations, where much of the increase can be attributed to higher gasoline prices.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Arkansas Economic Development Institute

The series for Food and Beverage Stores is a prime example of a persistent change in consumer spending patterns since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. After surging in the early months of the pandemic as households stocked-up on supplies, spending at this subset of retailers has settled in at around 16% higher than the summer of 2019.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Arkansas Economic Development Institute

Another sector with persistently robust sales growth over the past two years is Building Materials and Garden & Equipment and Supplies.  This spending category saw increases early in the pandemic, when many areas of the country were under lockdown, and has continued to surge above pre-pandemic levels. Over the summer months of July and August, spending in this sector was up from the previous year by 13.1% in Arkansas and 7.6% nationwide.  These increases were on top of sharp gains recorded the previous year.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Arkansas Economic Development Institute

Two sectors that have shown the largest increases in sales over the past year are Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores and Gasoline stations.  The increased spending at gasoline stations partly reflects a recovery in travel, but largely reflects swings in gasoline prices during the recession and recovery phases.  In Clothing and Clothing Accessories, the spending patterns clearly display the resilience of the Arkansas consumer sector. The initial decline in spending was not nearly as large in Arkansas as the rest of the country, and by the summer of 2020 clothing store spending had fully recovered in Arkansas but still lagged pre-recession spending levels by more than 18% nationwide.  By the summer of 2021, nationwide spending in this sector had recovered to stand 14.8% higher than in the summer of 2019.  Here in Arkansas the increase from the summer of 2019 to the summer of 2021 was 24.5%.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Arkansas Economic Development Institute

Increases in consumer spending over the past year have been boosted by unprecedented surges in personal income, as government support and stimulus programs have boosted consumers’ purchasing power.  As personal income growth returns to its longer run trend, retail sales growth will necessarily slow.  It will be interesting to see how recent changes in the mix of consumer spending across subsectors will persist.

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Data on Arkansas Retail Trade and Food Service Sales are constructed by the Arkansas Economic Development Institute using tax collection information from the Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration.  Documentation of Methodology is available here: Arkansas Retail Sales—A New Data Set from AEDI.

Data for Arkansas Retail and Food Service Sales for July 2017 through August 2021 are available in an Excel Spreadsheet:  Arkansas-Retail-Sales-Aug-2020.  The data set includes statewide aggregates and components, both seasonally adjusted and not-seasonally adjusted. County-level data for Total Retail and Food Service Sales excluding Gasoline are available on a not-seasonally adjusted basis.

 

 

 

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Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – September 2021

The generally upbeat statistics in the September employment report for Arkansas carried over to today’s summary of job market conditions in the state’s metro areas.

Unemployment rates were down in in all eight metro areas covering parts of Arkansas.  The unemployment rate in Memphis took a particularly steep nosedive, falling from 6.5% to 5.3%.  Unemployment rates in the other seven metros declined by 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

With the September unemployment declines, metro areas moved closer to pre-pandemic unemployment rates.  Fort Smith, which had already seen unemployment drop to below the 3.7% reading registered in February 2020, dropped further below that baseline.  With the exception of Memphis and Texarkana, unemployment rates in all metro areas are within 1 percentage point of their February 2020 levels.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment
Changes in nonfarm payroll employment were more mixed across metro areas.  Employment was down in Little Rock, Pine Bluff, and Texarkana, but moved higher in the other metro areas.  The decline in Pine Bluff was particularly steep, with employment dropping by nearly a full percent.  Other metro areas saw increases of 0.1% to 0.4%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

In spite of recent gains, employment totals generally remain lower than the pre-pandemic month of February 2020.  The exception is Northwest Arkansas, where employment is up 1.9%.  Fort Smith is very close to achieving pre-pandemic levels of employment, while in Hot Springs, Little Rock and Texarkana, employment remains more than 3% below that benchmark month.

 

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JOLTS for Arkansas

CORRECTED VERSION: October 26, 2021*

In addition to the monthly report on state-level employment and unemployment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics issued this morning its first-ever report on state-level estimates for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).  The national JOLTS data have been an invaluable tool for labor economists in recent years, facilitating the examination of labor market flows in more detail than the traditional unemployment statistics.  The JOLTS data include estimates of Job Openings, Job Separations (divided into Quits, Layoffs & Discharges, and Other Separations) and Hires.

In recent months, two aspects of the national JOLTS data have been a focus of interest with regard to the ongoing “labor shortage.”   First, over the course of 2021 the ratio of unemployed persons to job openings was steadily declining, falling below 1.0 in July.  As shown in the figure below, that ratio has followed a similar path for Arkansas.  The number of unemployed per job opening had a much lower peak in Arkansas during the height of the pandemic (2.7 vs. 5.0 nationally), and the decline in Arkansas has paralleled the U.S. data.  The ratio fell below 1.0 for the U.S. in May, while the ratio in Arkansas has been below 1.0 since January.  As of August (the most recent data available), the unemployed/job-openings ratio was 0.8 in the U.S. data and 0.6 for Arkansas.*

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Market Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

In the BLS’ debut report on state-level JOLTS data, Arkansas was singled out as the only state to have seen an increase in job openings in August, with the number of job openings increasing by 8,000 and the job openings rate rising by 0.6 percentage point to 7.1%. (The job openings rate is computed by dividing the number of job openings by the sum of employment and job openings and multiplying that quotient by 100.)

The second statistic from JOLTS that has received recent attention is the quits-rate: the number of job quitters as a percent of total employment.  In August, this ratio hit an all-time high of 2.9% for the U.S., suggesting that labor market conditions were so favorable that a record proportion of workers felt confident enough to quit their jobs in favor of better prospects.  As shown in the second figure, below, quit rates in Arkansas have generally run higher than the national average, but are also at or near a record-high for the state (particularly when some of the month-to-month volatility is smoothed using a moving average).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Market Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

Going forward, the new database on state-level JOLTS statistics undoubtedly will be a useful source of information about Arkansas labor market dynamics. There are many more insights (and shortcomings) associated with the data that we will be following in coming months here at the Arkansas Economist.

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*Correction:  The first-published version of this article included miscalculated values for the ratio of Unemployed to Job Openings for Arkansas.  The figures have been corrected and the commentary changed accordingly.  [The JOLTS data set does not include this ratio in their official reports for individual states, but it can be calculated using unemployment statistics from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS).  This is the calculation that was initially reported incorrectly.]

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Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – September 2021

The latest report on Arkansas employment and unemployment included positive news along several dimensions.  The number of unemployed and the unemployment rate declined, and both the household and payroll surveys showed increases in employment.

The headline news was a decline in the unemployment rate from 4.2% in August to 4.0% in September. Typically, month-to-month changes in state unemployment rates are not statistically significant; however, today’s BLS report notes that the September decline in Arkansas did meet that threshold. The U.S. unemployment rate had previously been reported to have declined by 0.4 percentage points to 4.8% for the month, but the remaining spread between the national and state rates remains statistically significant.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The underlying components of the unemployment rate were all going in the right direction:  The number unemployed dropped by 2,967, the largest one-month decline since January.  The number of employed was up by 3,561—the second consecutive month of employment gains over 3,000.  The labor force expanded by 594.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment also showed increases for the month.  On a not-seasonally adjusted basis, employment increased by 17,300.  However, more than 15,000 of those job gains were associated with seasonal increases at public and private educational institutions.  After seasonal adjustment, the payroll data showed a gain of 1,000 jobs.

Sectors that showed the largest declines included Education & Health Services and Government, showing that while the start school year brought the typical surge in employment, the magnitude of the increase was not as substantial as typically expected.  Key sectors showing increases in employment included Retail Trade and Transportation & Utilities.  Durable goods manufacturing was up, but employment in manufacturing of nondurables continued to slump.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Job growth continues to show steady progress toward recovery from the COVID-19 recession, with employment gains over the past 12 months totaling 30,200 jobs.  Nevertheless, there remain 23,600 fewer jobs than just before the pandemic hit—a gap of 1.7%.  Nationwide, payroll employment remains 3.3% lower than in February 2020.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE. 

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Personal Consumption Expenditures – 2020

The annual data on state-level Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) were published last week by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  The data for Arkansas reaffirm our observation that Arkansas consumers maintained relatively high levels of spending during the depths of the pandemic.  Nationwide, PCE declined 2.6% from 2019 to 2020.  In Arkansas total spending increased–albeit at a rate of less than 0.1%. Arkansas was one of only four states to show an increase for the year. (The other states were Idaho, Utah and Montana.)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The brunt of the slowdown was borne by services consumption. With opportunities for spending on services severely limited by pandemic-related closures and lockdowns, consumer spending was diverted toward consumption of goods.  In both the national and Arkansas data, goods consumption increased in 2020.  However, the percent increases were larger for Arkansas in each category of spending.  Two categories of goods—Other durable goods and Gasoline—were lower for the year, but the declines were smaller in the Arkansas data.  Similarly, the declines in services consumption were generally much larger for the U.S. than recorded in the Arkansas data.  The only exception was Health care, which increased slightly more in the national data than in Arkansas.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

One reason for the overall relative strength in the Arkansas statistics is the fact that goods consumption has historically  comprised a larger share of total spending in Arkansas.  This larger share of goods-consumption had the effect of boosting the impact of increased spending on goods and de-emphasizing the declining service-sector spending.  However, this effect was small:  If the sector-by-sector growth rates for Arkansas were re-weighted to reflect the higher service-content of the U.S. consumption basket, Arkansas growth rate for the year would be around -0.1%, instead of +0.1%.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

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Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – August 2021

The latest report on metropolitan area employment shows ongoing improvement in Arkansas’ metro areas, with some recovering from the COVID-19 recession more rapidly than others. Five of the eight metro areas covering parts of Arkansas saw the unemployment rate decline by 0.1 percentage point in August, matching the statewide change.  In Pine Bluff, the unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage points, while in Hot Springs the rate dropped by 0.8 percentage points.  In Northwest Arkansas the unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.7%—the lowest reading in the state.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Over the past 12 months, changes in unemployment rates largely reflect reversal of the sharp increases that occurred in March and April of 2020.  Hot Springs and Memphis, the two metro areas where unemployment rates have fallen by over 4 percentage points over the past year, experienced particularly high unemployment rates in April 2020, peaking at 15.6% and 13.4%, respectively. Texarkana spiked at 13.8% unemployment last April, but recovered fairly quickly between April and August 2020, experiencing a relatively smaller net change over the past 12 months.

Relative the pre-pandemic conditions, the recovery in Fort Smith has been significant:  The August unemployment rate of 3.6% was the second-lowest in the state, and is 0.1 percentage point lower than it was in February 2020.  Unemployment in Memphis and Texarkana remains elevated, but the unemployment rates in Fayetteville, Hot Springs, Jonesboro, Little Rock and Pine Bluff are all less than one percentage point higher than at the last business cycle peak.

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment increased in five of Arkansas’ metro areas in August, with the largest increase in Northwest Arkansas (+0.6%).  Employment in Hot Springs and Texarkana was down for the month, with Little Rock unchanged.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

After the August increase, employment in the Fayetteville MSA represented a net gain of 2.1% relative to February 2020.  Employment in all other metro areas remains below pre-pandemic levels with the net declines having narrowed to between 1% and 2% in Fort Smith, Jonesboro, Memphis and Pine Bluff. In the remaining metro areas—Hot Springs, Little Rock and Texarkana—employment remains more than 3% lower than in February 2020.

Taking the latest data at face value, it is clear that the Fayetteville metro area—which was growing at the fastest rate before the pandemic—has experienced the most robust recovery among Arkansas’ metro areas.  Fort Smith has also shown significant improvement, with the second-lowest unemployment rate and the second-best net employment change since February 2020.  Indicators from the household survey and the payroll survey give mixed signals regarding other metro areas, but Texarkana stands out as one of the three highest unemployment rates and one of the three largest net employment declines since the onset of the COVID-19 recession.

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Arkansas Personal Income – 2021:Q2

New data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that Arkansas Personal Income declined by 8.5% in the second quarter (an annualized rate of -29.8%). Nationwide, the second-quarter decrease in income was 6.0% (-21.8% annual rate). Income declines in the second quarter were the result of a sharp drop in Transfer Payments, as pandemic-related assistance programs wound down. Consequently, the states experiencing the largest declines in the second quarter income were the same as those that saw the largest increases in the first quarter. For example, Arkansas’ second-quarter decline was the 6th largest decline among the 50 states, while the 14.9% increase in the first quarter (74.5% annualized rate) was the nation’s 5th highest.  More generally, the correlation of first quarter with second-quarter growth rates across the states was -0.88.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Removing the effect of government transfer payments, personal incomes continued their robust recovery from the pandemic-related downturn a year ago.  Arkansas Personal Income less Transfer Receipts rose at a 9.6% annual rate in the second quarter, compared with a 9.2% rate in the U.S. data.  Since the trough of 2020:Q2, this measure of income has increased 10.6% in Arkansas an 10.4% in the nationwide data.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

All major components of personal income except transfer receipts increased in the second quarter.  Proprietors Income surged by 16.1% and was 53.5% higher than its dismal reading of one year earlier.  Wages and Salaries rose 1.3%, for a cumulative 4-quarter change of 12.0%.  Dividends, Interest, and Rent was up 1.2% for the quarter, which represented a 1.4% increase from a year earlier.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

With most government support and stimulus programs winding down, personal income is expected to return to a more normal growth pattern over the remainder of the year.

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Little Rock Regional Economic Briefing – Nov. 17th, 2021

LOGOS

Please join the Little Rock Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and the Arkansas Economic Development Institute on Thursday, November 17th, for a regional economic briefing for business leaders, educators, community development practitioners and others interested in the economy.

During this virtual presentation, you will hear an update on economic conditions and the outlook for the region and nation.

There is no charge to attend, but registration is required by Nov. 15.

Date: Thurs., Nov. 17, 2021
Time: 8 – 10 a.m.
Location: Virtual

 

Click Here for More Information

Special Reports: Impact of Covid-19 on the Arkansas Economy

Arkansas Consumer Spending in 2020
One of the most significant and unexpected features of the Arkansas economy during the COVID-19 pandemic has been the robust behavior of consumer spending…
Read more…

Leisure and Hospitality Industries in Arkansas–2020
Of all the sectors of the economy hat have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, industries in the Leisure and Hospitality category have been among the hardest-hit…
Read more…

Forecast Update (July)
“Incoming data have continued to show a more rapid recovery from the COVID-19 shutdowns than previously expected.”
Read more…

Forecast Update (June)
Information since May has suggested that Arkansas has not been as severely impacted as other parts of the country, and that the sharp declines in national employment have abated.
Read more…

Forecast Update (May)
“The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to be more rapid and more severe than initially expected… In this updated report we present new projections for the Arkansas economy.”
Read more…

Forecast Update (April)
“In this note we update that forecast with new estimates of the magnitude of the downturn. We also update and extend our previous guidance on how the forecast is likely to impact sales tax receipts of local governments.”
Read more …

Implications for Local Government Sales Tax Collections
“In this note, we focus on consumer spending and the outlook for sales tax collections by county and municipal governments.” Read more…

Arkansas Economic Outlook (March)
“It appears that a dramatic downturn in economic activity over the remainder of 2020 is unavoidable for the nation and for Arkansas.”  Read more…

 

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