GDP data from the third quarter of 2025 show a sharp rebound in Arkansas’ production after a slow first half of the year. Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 5.8% in Q3, compared to the U.S. growth rate of 4.4%. Arkansas was reported to have the third-highest growth rate in the nation. Over the most recent four quarters, Arkansas GDP growth was 2.2% and the U.S. growth rate was 2.3%.
The news release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis noted that Durable Goods Manufacturing was the leading contributor to growth in 13 states, including Arkansas where it contributed 0.89 percentage points. Other contributors to Arkansas’ growth included Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, as well as Health Care. The only sectors in Arkansas showing declines were Construction and Government.
Cumulatively, Arkansas GDP has grown by 17.7% since the pre-covid level of 2019:Q4. Over the same period, U.S. GDP has expanded 14.5%. The figure below also illustrates the sensitivity of Arkansas GDP growth to recent swings in the Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting component. Suppressing the effects of this component has little impact on the state’s third-quarter growth, but reveals that long swings in growth since 2023 are largely attributable for corresponding swings in total GDP growth.
