With annual data revisions now nearly complete, state-level data on employment and unemployment is now available with updates for January 2025.
The Arkansas unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6% in January. The originally published data for December reported an unemployment rate for 3.4%, but recent revisions raised the December estimate to 3.6%. For more information on revisions to the LAUS data, see https://arkansaseconomist.com/laus-data-revisions/
The January figures indicated a fairly strong gain in household employment, +1,956. After the recent revisions, the data now show that household employment has not shown a month-to-month decline since April 2020. The number of unemployed edged slightly higher in January (+112). As a result, the labor force expanded by 2,068 for the month.
Payroll Employment
Without seasonal adjustment, nonfarm payroll employment contracted by 16,500 jobs in January. However, there is always a sharp drop in employment after the holidays and the start of a new year. After taking this predictable seasonal pattern into account, the data for seasonally adjusted payroll employment showed an increase of 3,000 jobs for the month.
The largest gains came from Retail Trade and Professional & Business Services, which were both up by 1,700 jobs. Sectors showing declines included Construction and Manufacturing, as well as Wholesale Trade. Compared to a year earlier, nearly all sectors showed increases, with total employment increasing by 24,000 jobs—approximately 1.8%.
Revisions to Payroll Data
The annual benchmark revisions changed some of the month-to-month patterns of employment growth for specific sectors, but had little quantitative impact on the situation at the end of 2024. As shown in the figure below, the data revisions had the effect of lowering measured employment during mid-2024, but higher growth estimates toward the end of the year brought the revised data back to nearly in line with previously-reported information. The largest revision was for the month of June (-10,600 jobs). By December the gap was reduced to 2,600 jobs. Hence, January’s increase of 3,000 jobs means that employment for January was higher than at any other time in history (at least for the seasonally-adjusted data).
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Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services, can be found here: Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.